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experiment-orchestrator-for:09638c12-b64c-4849-9df3-56cd1c5bb738 Drive experiment 0c120ea3-746a-43e6-a760-e6112f8cb649 from approved plan through awaiting_promotion. Sub-agents are loaded from .claude/agents/.

Statuscompleted74 events · latest 1348h 29m ago

Plan

Blocker — sixth consecutive same-mode failure; R5 escalation rule must be honored

This is the **sixth** dispatch attempt for experiment #363, and the **fourth in a row** to exhibit the identical failure mode: pod reports `RUNNING` on the team account, then disappears from the account-scoped pod list shortly after. ### Cumulative failure ledger - retry-1: `SUPPLY_CONSTRAINT` - retry-2: `INTERNAL_SERVER_ERROR` on `podFindAndDeployOnDemand` - retry-3: `Pod not found in account=team` after ~14 min RUNNING - retry-4: `Pod not found in account=team` after ~2 min RUNNING - retry-5: `Pod not found in account=team` after ~7 min RUNNING - **retry-6 (this run, `m1ayhl6nsbxw04`): `Pod not found in account=team` after ~1 min RUNNING** Four consecutive post-`RUNNING` disappearances against the team account is conclusively not transient capacity flake. It is consistent with a RunPod-side or team-account-side state issue (account-scoping bug, billing/rate-limit eviction, or stale pod-list cache). ### Why I am refusing to auto-recover The approved plan for #363 contains a pre-registered escalation rule (**R5** in the existing `planJson` section "Blocker — escalate per plan's pre-registered R5 rule"): > if retry-4 also disappears after `RUNNING`, escalate to a manual SSH-into-pod check during the next attempt rather than spending more auto-recoveries on it. That trigger condition was met two retries ago. The previous Claude Code run filed this same blocker after retry-5 and was overridden. retry-6 reproduced the exact same failure, providing yet another data point that auto-recovery cannot resolve this. Continuing the loop would (a) violate the operator's now thrice-confirmed pre-registered escalation rule, (b) waste another dispatch cycle on a failure mode that has now reproduced four times in a row on the same account, and (c) overstep the planner role — the planner is forbidden from launching pods, and the plan is already approved and unchanged. The planner-role instructions also explicitly say: *"If the root cause is … unavailable infrastructure … or another issue you cannot safely fix, stop with a concise blocker that includes the evidence and the exact next manual action."* This is unavailable infrastructure. ### Exact next manual action The operator must pick one of the following before any further auto-recovery is permitted. A and C can run in parallel; B is the cheapest single diagnostic. **A — Manual-SSH-monitored dispatch (plan's preferred next step).** Dispatch manually (`pnpm runpod:dispatch` on the runner VM using the existing spec from #363's `planJson`, or via the RunPod dashboard). Within 60 s of `RUNNING`, SSH into the pod and tail the bootstrap log. If the pod disappears from the team account while the SSH session is still alive, that distinguishes "RunPod-side account eviction" from "Sagan polling lost the pod" — these have very different fixes. **B — Account fallback test.** The plan's `substitution_policy.account` already allows `personal`. Edit the policy's `prefer` from `team` to `personal` and re-run pod-provisioner. If the pod survives on personal but not on team, the issue is team-account-specific (billing, rate limit, per-team RunPod state) and the next step is a support ticket against that account. If it disappears on personal too, the issue is broader. **C — File a RunPod support ticket** referencing the six pod IDs across the six attempts (most recent: `m1ayhl6nsbxw04`, `36xpkdt2tumzxb`, `87xq2h88dmg5j5`), asking why these pods reported `RUNNING` and then vanished from the account-scoped pod list within 1–14 minutes. Worth filing in parallel with A or B regardless. ### What I am not changing - **The experiment plan itself is unchanged.** Design, hypothesis, prediction, kill criteria, compute estimate, and runpod-spec in `planJson` are all still correct. This is RunPod infrastructure, not methodology — there is nothing for the planner to redraft. - **No critique loop.** The plan's existing R5 notes already cover this exact path; a fourth consecutive same-mode failure adds evidence but no new question for critics. - **No file edits. No pod dispatch. No compute spent.** ### Evidence pointer - This orchestrator run: auto-recovery for `6e8a0593-c1f6-45b3-9dd0-7a89618006df` - Disappeared pod (retry-6): `m1ayhl6nsbxw04` (team account, ~1 min RUNNING before disappearance) - Disappeared pod (retry-5): `36xpkdt2tumzxb` (team account, ~7 min RUNNING) - Disappeared pod (retry-4): `87xq2h88dmg5j5` (team account, ~2 min RUNNING) - Prior orchestrator runs that filed the same blocker: `f86281ce-da03-4f60-871a-a8723393c758` (after retry-4), and the planner run that immediately preceded retry-6 (after retry-5) **The operator must advance this experiment manually per the plan's R5 escalation rule before any further auto-recovery is allowed.** Four consecutive same-mode failures after the rule was first invoked is overwhelming evidence that auto-recovery cannot resolve this.

Blocker — sixth consecutive same-mode failure; R5 escalation rule must be honored

This is the sixth dispatch attempt for experiment #363, and the fourth in a row to exhibit the identical failure mode: pod reports RUNNING on the team account, then disappears from the account-scoped pod list shortly after.

Cumulative failure ledger

  • retry-1: SUPPLY_CONSTRAINT
  • retry-2: INTERNAL_SERVER_ERROR on podFindAndDeployOnDemand
  • retry-3: Pod not found in account=team after ~14 min RUNNING
  • retry-4: Pod not found in account=team after ~2 min RUNNING
  • retry-5: Pod not found in account=team after ~7 min RUNNING
  • retry-6 (this run, m1ayhl6nsbxw04): Pod not found in account=team after ~1 min RUNNING

Four consecutive post-RUNNING disappearances against the team account is conclusively not transient capacity flake. It is consistent with a RunPod-side or team-account-side state issue (account-scoping bug, billing/rate-limit eviction, or stale pod-list cache).

Why I am refusing to auto-recover

The approved plan for #363 contains a pre-registered escalation rule (R5 in the existing planJson section "Blocker — escalate per plan's pre-registered R5 rule"):

if retry-4 also disappears after RUNNING, escalate to a manual SSH-into-pod check during the next attempt rather than spending more auto-recoveries on it.

That trigger condition was met two retries ago. The previous Claude Code run filed this same blocker after retry-5 and was overridden. retry-6 reproduced the exact same failure, providing yet another data point that auto-recovery cannot resolve this.

Continuing the loop would (a) violate the operator's now thrice-confirmed pre-registered escalation rule, (b) waste another dispatch cycle on a failure mode that has now reproduced four times in a row on the same account, and (c) overstep the planner role — the planner is forbidden from launching pods, and the plan is already approved and unchanged.

The planner-role instructions also explicitly say: "If the root cause is … unavailable infrastructure … or another issue you cannot safely fix, stop with a concise blocker that includes the evidence and the exact next manual action." This is unavailable infrastructure.

Exact next manual action

The operator must pick one of the following before any further auto-recovery is permitted. A and C can run in parallel; B is the cheapest single diagnostic.

A — Manual-SSH-monitored dispatch (plan's preferred next step). Dispatch manually (pnpm runpod:dispatch on the runner VM using the existing spec from #363's planJson, or via the RunPod dashboard). Within 60 s of RUNNING, SSH into the pod and tail the bootstrap log. If the pod disappears from the team account while the SSH session is still alive, that distinguishes "RunPod-side account eviction" from "Sagan polling lost the pod" — these have very different fixes.

B — Account fallback test. The plan's substitution_policy.account already allows personal. Edit the policy's prefer from team to personal and re-run pod-provisioner. If the pod survives on personal but not on team, the issue is team-account-specific (billing, rate limit, per-team RunPod state) and the next step is a support ticket against that account. If it disappears on personal too, the issue is broader.

C — File a RunPod support ticket referencing the six pod IDs across the six attempts (most recent: m1ayhl6nsbxw04, 36xpkdt2tumzxb, 87xq2h88dmg5j5), asking why these pods reported RUNNING and then vanished from the account-scoped pod list within 1–14 minutes. Worth filing in parallel with A or B regardless.

What I am not changing

  • The experiment plan itself is unchanged. Design, hypothesis, prediction, kill criteria, compute estimate, and runpod-spec in planJson are all still correct. This is RunPod infrastructure, not methodology — there is nothing for the planner to redraft.
  • No critique loop. The plan's existing R5 notes already cover this exact path; a fourth consecutive same-mode failure adds evidence but no new question for critics.
  • No file edits. No pod dispatch. No compute spent.

Evidence pointer

  • This orchestrator run: auto-recovery for 6e8a0593-c1f6-45b3-9dd0-7a89618006df
  • Disappeared pod (retry-6): m1ayhl6nsbxw04 (team account, ~1 min RUNNING before disappearance)
  • Disappeared pod (retry-5): 36xpkdt2tumzxb (team account, ~7 min RUNNING)
  • Disappeared pod (retry-4): 87xq2h88dmg5j5 (team account, ~2 min RUNNING)
  • Prior orchestrator runs that filed the same blocker: f86281ce-da03-4f60-871a-a8723393c758 (after retry-4), and the planner run that immediately preceded retry-6 (after retry-5)

The operator must advance this experiment manually per the plan's R5 escalation rule before any further auto-recovery is allowed. Four consecutive same-mode failures after the rule was first invoked is overwhelming evidence that auto-recovery cannot resolve this.

Events

2:17:17 PMstartedagent
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CLAUDE.md
PROMPTS.md
README.md
RESULTS.md
archive
configs
dashboard
data
docs
errors.log
eval_results
experiments
external
figures
launch_all.sh
launch_pilot.sh
launch_pilot_v2.sh
launch_wave1.sh
launch_wave1_v2.sh
logs
node_modules
ood_eval_results
overleaf_paper
papers
patches
pyproject.toml
raw
scripts
src
tests
2:17:41 PMtool_calltools

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/usr/bin/python3
usage: sagan_state.py [-h] [--base-url BASE_URL] [--token TOKEN]
                      [--timeout TIMEOUT]
                      {list,view,status,patch,marker,markers,promote,launch-pod,clean-result}
                      ...
sagan_state.py: error: argument command: invalid choice: 'show' (choose from 'list', 'view', 'status', 'patch', 'marker', 'markers', 'promote', 'launch-pod', 'clean-result')
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Traceback (most recent call last):
  File "/home/thomasjiralerspong/sagan/scripts/sagan_state.py", line 356, in <module>
    raise SystemExit(main())
  File "/home/thomasjiralerspong/sagan/scripts/sagan_state.py", line 348, in main
    args.func(args)
  File "/home/thomasjiralerspong/sagan/scripts/sagan_state.py", line 160, in cmd_view
    print_json(by_number(args, args.number))
  File "/home/thomasjiralerspong/sagan/scripts/sagan_state.py", line 141, in by_number
    return request(args, "GET", f"/api/experiments/by-number/{number}")
  File "/home/thomasjiralerspong/sagan/scripts/sagan_state.py", line 94, in request
    with urllib.request.urlopen(req, timeout=args.timeout) as res:
  File "/usr/lib/python3.10/urllib/request.py", line 216, in urlopen
    return opener.open(url, data, timeout)
  File "/usr/lib/python3.10/urllib/request.py", line 519, in open
    response = self._open(req, data)
  File "/usr/lib/python3.10/urllib/request.py", line 536, in _open
    result = self._call_chain(self.handle_open, protocol, protocol +
  File "/usr/lib/python3.10/urllib/request.py", line 496, in _call_chain
    result = func(*args)
  File "/usr/lib/python3.10/urllib/request.py", line 1377, in http_open
    return self.do_open(http.client.HTTPConnection, req)
  File "/usr/lib/python3.10/urllib/request.py", line 1352, in do_open
    r = h.getresponse()
  File "/usr/lib/python3.10/http/client.py", line 1395, in getresponse
    response.begin()
  File "/usr/lib/python3.10/http/client.py", line 323, in begin
    version, status, reason = self._read_status()
  File "/usr/lib/python3.10/http/client.py", line 284, in _read_status
    line = str(self.fp.readline(_MAXLINE + 1), "iso-8859-1")
  File "/usr/lib/python3.10/socket.py", line 705, in readinto
    return self._sock.recv_into(b)
TimeoutError: timed out
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NEXT_PUBLIC_SITE_URL="http://localhost:3000"
# Send as Authorization: Bearer $SAGAN_API_TOKEN. Revoke at https://sagan.superkaiba.com/api-tokens.
SAGAN_API_TOKEN=sk_k_ZwbUe9OkkoenN1MBCcL_tb4qKt31FO-Wo3hw69esM
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<persisted-output>
Output too large (87.6KB). Full output saved to: /home/thomasjiralerspong/.claude/projects/-home-thomasjiralerspong-sagan/eea5f2d5-9545-44e8-a7f6-bee275070ce6/tool-results/bmqkyjm9l.txt

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File content (37299 tokens) exceeds maximum allowed tokens (25000). Use offset and limit parameters to read specific portions of the file, or search for specific content instead of reading the whole file.
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200 /home/thomasjiralerspong/.claude/projects/-home-thomasjiralerspong-sagan/eea5f2d5-9545-44e8-a7f6-bee275070ce6/tool-results/bmqkyjm9l.txt
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27	      "bodyMd": "# Chen et al. Persona-Vector Extraction vs. Project Centroid-Difference\n\nScoped experiment: `0c120ea3-746a-43e6-a760-e6112f8cb649`\nTarget tenant code: `/home/thomasjiralerspong/explore-persona-space` (EPS).\nSagan-side change: none \u2014 Sagan only records the run and renders the clean result.\n\n## Goal\n\nImplement the persona-vector extraction recipe from Chen et al. (Anthropic,\n\"Persona Vectors: Monitoring and Controlling Character Traits in Language\nModels\", 2025) inside the EPS codebase, run it on the same traits and base\nmodel we use today, and directly compare the resulting vectors to our\ncurrent centroid-difference (diff-of-means) recipe.\n\nThe comparison must answer: does the Chen recipe yield a meaningfully\ndifferent direction (geometry) and a meaningfully more effective steering\ndirection (behavior) than the existing centroid-difference vectors on\nQwen2.5-7B-Instruct \u2014 particularly at layer 20, where clean result #267\nshowed the existing centroid direction was approximately random.\n\n## Hypothesis\n\nChen-style extraction \u2014 computing the diff of mean activations on\n**response tokens** generated under behavior-eliciting prompts that drive\ntrait-positive vs trait-negative completions \u2014 produces a direction that\n(a) is not approximately random at the middle layers (cosine to a sampled\nrandom direction within 2 sigma of the random-pair baseline distribution),\nand (b) achieves higher steering effectiveness than the current\ncentroid-difference vector on the same evaluation set, on at least 3 of 5\ntarget traits at layer 20.\n\nThe current centroid recipe under-performs because it averages activations\nover **prompt tokens of fixed exemplars**, which encodes lexical/topic\ncontent rather than the latent behavior axis. Chen's recipe conditions on\nthe model's own trait-aligned vs trait-opposing generations, so the diff\nisolates the behavioral subspace.\n\n## Prediction\n\nConcrete, falsifiable, per-trait, at L20 of Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct:\n\n1. **Geometry**: Chen-vector cosine to a random-direction baseline lies\n   outside the 95% interval of random-pair cosines. The existing centroid\n   vector lies inside that interval (replicating #267).\n2. **Steering effectiveness**: applying Chen-vector with per-trait\n   calibrated coefficient \u03b1* shifts a held-out trait-probe rubric score by\n   \u2265 +0.25 (on the 0\u20131 normalized rubric) versus unsteered baseline, on at\n   least 3 of 5 traits. Centroid vector shifts by < +0.10 on those same\n   traits.\n3. **Vector agreement**: cosine(Chen, centroid) for the same trait at L20\n   is < 0.3 (i.e. the two recipes find substantially different directions).\n\nIf all three hold, Chen is adopted as the default extraction recipe. If\n(1) holds but (2) does not, Chen is recorded as \"geometrically non-rand…
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105	      "bodyMd": "# Experiment Plan \u2014 Chen et al. Persona-Vector Extraction vs. Project Centroid-Difference\n\n- **Experiment ID:** `0c120ea3-746a-43e6-a760-e6112f8cb649`\n- **Run ID:** `f8c0ec5a-6010-43ed-a3aa-c845115d6014`\n- **Kind:** experiment \u00b7 **Approval required:** yes\n- **Pipeline state:** idea \u2192 **planning**\n- **Target repo:** `/home/thomasjiralerspong/explore-persona-space` (Python research code)\n- **Tracking surface:** Sagan dashboard (`https://sagan.superkaiba.com`), `experiments` + `runs` tables\n\n## Context\n\nThe Sagan project owns a \"centroid-difference\" persona-vector recipe inherited from `explore-persona-space`. Mentor agenda item #267 (\"Why centroid steering is approximately random direction at L20\") parked a known weakness of that recipe: at the default extraction layer, the resulting vectors look indistinguishable from random directions. The Pipeline board card asks us to reimplement the Chen et al. persona-vector recipe (most likely the Anthropic \"Persona Vectors\" 2025 paper \u2014 *to be pinned before kickoff*; see Risks) and run a head-to-head comparison so we can decide which recipe to standardize on for downstream steering, monitoring, and leakage work.\n\nThe Sagan dashboard codebase contains zero persona-vector code; all model work happens in `explore-persona-space` and is dispatched to a RunPod GPU pod by `services/runner`. This plan must therefore (a) implement Chen's recipe in `explore-persona-space`, (b) run both recipes on the same persona set under the same compute envelope, and (c) report metrics back through the Sagan experiment record.\n\n## Goal\n\nDetermine whether the Chen et al. persona-vector extraction recipe produces persona directions that are measurably better than the project's centroid-difference recipe on a held-out evaluation of (i) linear separability, (ii) steering effect, and (iii) cross-layer stability \u2014 using the same 100-persona set, model, and compute budget.\n\n## Hypothesis\n\nBecause the Chen recipe extracts directions from *contrastive behavior-eliciting prompt pairs* and selects a per-persona layer, while the centroid-difference recipe averages activations on persona-conditioned prompts and reads a single fixed layer (L20), Chen vectors will encode persona-relevant variation more cleanly and recover non-random directions at layers where centroid-diff degenerates (issue #267).\n\n## Prediction\n\nOn `Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct` over 100 personas with a 70/30 persona-level split:\n\n1. **Separation.** Held-out persona-vs-non-persona classifier AUROC using the extracted direction will be \u2265 **0.05 higher** for Chen vectors than centroid-difference at each recipe's best-per-persona layer. Centroid-diff at the fixed L20 will sit at AUROC \u2264 0.55 (consistent with #267).\n2. **Steering.** In a blind pairwise LLM-judge eval over 50 prompts \u00d7 100 personas \u00d7 3 seeds, Chen-steered completions will be preferred over centroid-steered completions in \u2265 **55%** of trials at norm-matched steering strength, without a >5 pp increase in refusal rate or a >5 pp drop on a held-out MMLU-style helpfulness slice.\n3. **Cross-recipe similarity.** Per-layer cosine between Chen and centroid vectors will be in [0.2, 0.6] for the majority of personas \u2014 i.e., they encode related but non-identical directions.\n\n## Kill Criterion\n\nStop the run and file a null report if **any** of the following holds before completion of both extraction halves:\n\n- **Reproduction blocked:** the Chen prompt-pair construction cannot be replicated faithfully from the cited paper plus public artifacts (no released prompts, no released model, ambiguous \"best layer\" selection) and we would have to invent the recipe.\n- **Coverage failure:** extraction crashes or yields all-zero / NaN vect…
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status: running id: 0c120ea3-746a-43e6-a760-e6112f8cb649 number: 363 title: Implement Chen et al. persona-vector extraction recipe and compare to project's centroid-difference recipe
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event count: 48
2026-05-13T14:00:19.308Z | note | None -> None | Reconcile round 1: both reviewers agree on needs_targeted_fix. Findings are disjoint (Claude: 3 proc
2026-05-13T13:59:35.680Z | note | None -> None | Code is well-structured, ruff-clean, --dry-run succeeds end-to-end and emits the expected artifacts 
2026-05-13T13:59:18.679Z | note | None -> None | Plan adherence and Chen recipe math are correct: completion-token masking, pos-neg sign convention, 
2026-05-13T13:52:55.456Z | state_changed | implementing -> code_reviewing | Implementer pushed b8344b3 (4 files, +2231 lines) on branch issue-363. Spawning Claude+Codex code-re
2026-05-13T13:52:10.220Z | note | None -> None | <!-- epm:experiment-implementation v1 -->
## Implementation Report — round 1

**Status:** READY-FOR-
2026-05-13T13:30:08.361Z | state_changed | running -> implementing | Orchestrator (recovery) resuming after code-143 kill; no implementation code committed yet, restarti
2026-05-13T13:26:23.533Z | state_changed | blocked -> running | Reopened after manual retry of agent run 782b8e70.
2026-05-13T13:11:07.762Z | blocked | implementing -> blocked | Cascaded from agent_run 77932968 failed
2026-05-13T13:03:02.336Z | note | None -> None | Orchestrator spawning experiment-implementer for Chen vs centroid persona-vector extraction on EPS r
2026-05-13T13:01:05.394Z | state_changed | approved -> implementing | Orchestrator 9cb3275e queued to implement and dispatch.
2026-05-13T13:01:04.878Z | state_changed | queued -> approved | Re-used existing plan after moving to queued.
2026-05-13T13:01:04.809Z | state_changed | plan_pending -> queued | Moved on Pipeline board to queued.
2026-05-13T11:52:37.025Z | approval_requested | None -> plan_pending | Experiment plan approval requested.
2026-05-13T11:52:37.011Z | state_changed | cancelled -> plan_pending | Moved on Pipeline board to approval.
2026-05-13T11:52:22.211Z | state_changed | running -> cancelled | RunPod pod stopped; volume preserved.
2026-05-13T04:22:31.753Z | state_changed | queued -> running | RunPod pod is running.
2026-05-13T04:22:14.037Z | state_changed | approved -> queued | RunPod pod dispatched; waiting for runtime.
2026-05-13T04:22:11.772Z | state_changed | queued -> approved | Approved from Pipeline board after moving to queued.
2026-05-13T04:22:11.731Z | state_changed | plan_pending -> queued | Moved on Pipeline board to queued.
2026-05-13T04:21:58.436Z | state_changed | blocked -> plan_pending | Recovered experiment plan from the automatic recovery run.
2026-05-13T04:19:24.458Z | blocked | planning -> blocked | Cascaded from agent_run a1f04a02 failed
2026-05-13T04:17:06.298Z | state_changed | blocked -> planning | Automatic recovery queued after agent run f8c0ec5a failed.
2026-05-13T04:14:17.793Z | blocked | approved -> blocked | plan contained no ```runpod-spec``` block. The plan must include a fenced block describing the pod(s
2026-05-13T04:14:17.255Z | state_changed | queued -> approved | Approved from Pipeline board after moving to queued.
2026-05-13T04:14:17.209Z | state_changed | plan_pending -> queued | Moved on Pipeline board to queued.
2026-05-12T00:44:42.519Z | approval_requested | None -> plan_pending | Experiment plan approval requested.
2026-05-12T00:44:42.332Z | state_changed | proposed -> plan_pending | Experiment plan is ready for owner approval.
2026-05-12T00:44:17.182Z | note | None -> None | Smoke test from /issue migration cutover. Safe to delete.
2026-05-12T00:37:33.944Z | state_changed | planning -> proposed | Moved on Pipeline board to idea.
2026-05-12T00:37:30.897Z | state_changed | proposed -> planning | Moved on Pipeline board to planning.
2:19:48 PMtool_calltools

tool=Bash

Bash
2:19:49 PMtool_resulttools
2026-05-13T14:18:12.624Z | state_changed | implementing -> running | RunPod pod is running.
2026-05-13T14:17:57.287Z | note | None -> None | Orchestrator checkpoint — experiment 363 advanced from approved plan to RunPod running. Drove through: planning→code_reviewing→done_impl→running.

Imp
2026-05-13T14:17:17.395Z | state_changed | approved -> implementing | Orchestrator 0e8dde1a queued to implement and dispatch.
2026-05-13T14:17:16.757Z | state_changed | running -> approved | Auto-approved follow-up plan (experiment.auto_approve_plan=true).
2026-05-13T14:17:12.740Z | state_changed | queued -> running | RunPod pod is running.
2026-05-13T14:16:55.949Z | state_changed | done_impl -> queued | RunPod pod dispatched; waiting for runtime.
2026-05-13T14:16:53.724Z | state_changed | blocked -> done_impl | Restoring done_impl for A100 retry.
2026-05-13T14:16:45.775Z | note | None -> None | RunPod still reports no H100 capacity in either SECURE or COMMUNITY (two consecutive dispatch attempts blocked with the same GraphQL no-instances erro
2026-05-13T14:16:06.732Z | blocked | done_impl -> blocked | spec[0]: GraphQL errors: [{"message":"There are no longer any instances available with the requested specifications. Please refresh and try again.","p
2026-05-13T14:16:00.797Z | state_changed | planning -> done_impl | Restoring done_impl after auto-rollback from RunPod capacity error; will retry dispatch with cloudType=ALL.
2026-05-13T14:15:56.272Z | note | None -> None | Pod dispatch returned RunPod capacity error for H100 SECURE; experiment auto-rolled to planning. Patched runpod-spec cloudType SECURE -> ALL to accept
2026-05-13T14:15:15.297Z | state_changed | blocked -> planning | Automatic recovery queued after agent run e1baedab failed.
2026-05-13T14:15:14.685Z | blocked | done_impl -> blocked | spec[0]: GraphQL errors: [{"message":"There are no longer any instances available with the requested specifications. Please refresh and try again.","p
2026-05-13T14:14:38.334Z | state_changed | code_reviewing -> done_impl | Code review pair (round 2) verdict pass; reconciler agrees. Branch issue-363 @ 4685c57 ready for pod dispatch.
2026-05-13T14:14:28.975Z | note | None -> None | Round 2: Claude and Codex code-reviewers both verdict PASS. All six round-1 findings addressed (commit 4685c57): TRAIT_PROBE_POOL widened to 265 uniqu
2026-05-13T14:12:19.997Z | note | None -> None | All 6 round-1 findings concretely fixed. (1) TRAIT_PROBE_POOL widened to 265 unique; _build_steering_probes raises RuntimeError on overlap (no silent 
2026-05-13T14:11:33.343Z | note | None -> None | All 6 round-1 findings addressed cleanly. (1) TRAIT_PROBE_POOL=265 unique; _build_steering_probes raises and main() has hard asserts for pairwise-disj
2026-05-13T14:09:38.649Z | note | None -> None | ## Implementation Report - round 2

**Status:** READY-FOR-REVIEW

### (a) What was done
- `src/explore_persona_space/axis/trait_personas.py`: widened 
2026-05-13T14:00:19.308Z | note | None -> None | Reconcile round 1: both reviewers agree on needs_targeted_fix. Findings are disjoint (Claude: 3 process / steering-math bugs; Codex: 3 numerical-corre
2026-05-13T13:59:35.680Z | note | None -> None | Code is well-structured, ruff-clean, --dry-run succeeds end-to-end and emits the expected artifacts (chen_vectors, centroid_vectors, random_baseline.j
2026-05-13T13:59:18.679Z | note | None -> None | Plan adherence and Chen recipe math are correct: completion-token masking, pos-neg sign convention, 1000-resample percentile bootstrap, random-directi
2026-05-13T13:52:55.456Z | state_changed | implementing -> code_reviewing | Implementer pushed b8344b3 (4 files, +2231 lines) on branch issue-363. Spawning Claude+Codex code-reviewer pair.
2026-05-13T13:52:10.220Z | note | None -> None | <!-- epm:experiment-implementation v1 -->
## Implementation Report — round 1

**Status:** READY-FOR-REVIEW

### (a) What was done
- `src/explore_perso
2026-05-13T13:30:08.361Z | state_changed | running -> implem…
2:20:00 PMtool_calltools

tool=Bash

Bash
2:20:01 PMtool_resulttools
2026-05-13T14:20:00Z
2:20:04 PMtool_calltools

tool=Bash

Bash
2:20:04 PMtool_resulttools
status: running
runpod_pod_id: None
runpod_status: None
branch: None
all keys: ['id', 'number', 'legacyGhNumber', 'beliefId', 'projectId', 'title', 'body', 'hypothesis', 'planMd', 'planJson', 'configYaml', 'status', 'kind', 'computeSize', 'priority', 'assigneeKind', 'tags', 'hasCleanResult', 'autoApprovePlan', 'parentExperimentId', 'runpodAccount', 'createdAt', 'updatedAt', 'turn']

runs: 0
2:20:50 PMtool_calltools

tool=Bash

Bash
2:20:50 PMtool_resulttools
---
2026-05-13T14:18:12.624Z | state_changed | implementing -> running
RunPod pod is running.
---
2026-05-13T14:17:57.287Z | note | None -> None
Orchestrator checkpoint — experiment 363 advanced from approved plan to RunPod running. Drove through: planning→code_reviewing→done_impl→running.

Implementation: branch issue-363 at 4685c57 on superkaiba/explore-persona-space. 4 files, ~2230 lines: scripts/run_chen_vs_centroid.py (runner), scripts/verify_chen_vs_centroid.py (post-hoc verifier), src/explore_persona_space/axis/chen_extract.py (Chen recipe), src/explore_persona_space/axis/trait_personas.py (265-prompt probe pool + per-trait pos/neg system prompts).

Review: two Claude+Codex pairs ran. Round 1 verdicted needs_targeted_fix on six disjoint findings; round 2 verdicted pass after the implementer addressed (a) cal/rep dedupe (raising assertions, no fallback), (b) steering scale α·v not α·unit (logged magnitude), (c) non-degenerate position-confound ablation (centroid-on-prompt-tokens at L20), (d) single block-output hook target across all four extraction paths, (e) compute_mean_nll chat-template fix with first-call prefix assertion, (f) judge 0-100 → 0-1 normalization at the API boundary.

Dispatch: launch-pod via experiment-kind agent_run e1baedab. Two H100 SECURE+COMMUNITY attempts both blocked with the same RunPod GraphQL no-instances error. Patched runpod-spec to gpuType=A100 cloudType=ALL with timeout extended 36000s→50400s (10h→14h) to absorb the documented ~1.7× throughput hit on Qwen-7B. Third dispatch succeeded; pod is running.

Plan-spec drift to note: gpuType H100→A100 and timeout 10h→14h are deviations from the user-approved plan. Both are documented under the plan's own compute-section fallback ("A100 80GB would also fit but generation throughput on Qwen-7B is ~1.7× slower"), but the kill-criterion's 10h wall now silently relaxes to 14h. Flag for the experimenter agent.

Next: experimenter agent should monitor the pod, collect artifacts, then run analyzer → upload-verifier → interpretation-critic pair → clean-result-critic pair → awaiting_promotion. This orchestrator run exits here because the 
---
2026-05-13T14:17:17.395Z | state_changed | approved -> implementing
Orchestrator 0e8dde1a queued to implement and dispatch.
---
2026-05-13T14:17:16.757Z | state_changed | running -> approved
Auto-approved follow-up plan (experiment.auto_approve_plan=true).
---
2026-05-13T14:17:12.740Z | state_changed | queued -> running
RunPod pod is running.
---
2026-05-13T14:16:55.949Z | state_changed | done_impl -> queued
RunPod pod dispatched; waiting for runtime.
2:21:11 PMassistant_textagent
The previous orchestrator already drove the experiment through implementing → code_reviewing → done_impl → running. The pod is now running on A100 (H100 SUPPLY_CONSTRAINT documented). Let me verify state and post my own checkpoint.
2:21:12 PMtool_calltools

tool=Bash

Bash
2:21:12 PMtool_resulttools
usage: sagan_state.py marker [-h] [--event-type EVENT_TYPE]
                             [--from-status FROM_STATUS]
                             [--to-status TO_STATUS] [--note NOTE]
                             [--metadata-json METADATA_JSON]
                             [--actor-kind ACTOR_KIND]
                             [--review-pair {code_review,interpretation,clean_result}]
                             [--round ROUND] [--reviewer REVIEWER]
                             [--verdict {pass,needs_targeted_fix,blocked_needs_user_decision,fail_not_worth_continuing}]
                             [--required-fix REQUIRED_FIX]
                             [--reconciler-decision RECONCILER_DECISION]
                             [--next-status {approved,archived,awaiting_approval,awaiting_promotion,blocked,cancelled,clarifying,code_reviewing,completed,done_experiment,done_impl,failed,followups_running,gate_pending,implementing,interpreting,plan_pending,planning,proposed,queued,reviewing,running,shared,testing,uploading,verifying}]
                             number marker
sagan_state.py marker: error: the following arguments are required: marker
2:21:16 PMtool_calltools

tool=Bash

Bash
2:21:16 PMtool_resulttools
usage: sagan_state.py [-h] [--base-url BASE_URL] [--token TOKEN]
                      [--timeout TIMEOUT]
                      {list,view,status,patch,marker,markers,promote,launch-pod,clean-result}
                      ...

Sagan workflow-state HTTP client

positional arguments:
  {list,view,status,patch,marker,markers,promote,launch-pod,clean-result}
    list                List experiments
    view                View one experiment by Sagan experiment number
    status              Set experiment status
    patch               Patch experiment metadata or status
    marker (markers)    Post an epm:* workflow marker
    promote             Promote pending experiment result
    launch-pod          Trigger Sagan's dispatcher to launch RunPod pods from
                        an approved experiment-kind agent_run
    clean-result        Patch a clean-result record by UUID

options:
  -h, --help            show this help message and exit
  --base-url BASE_URL   Sagan base URL; defaults to SAGAN_BASE_URL or
                        NEXT_PUBLIC_SITE_URL
  --token TOKEN         Bearer token; defaults to SAGAN_API_TOKEN
  --timeout TIMEOUT
2:21:22 PMtool_calltools

tool=Bash

Bash
2:21:23 PMtool_resulttools
usage: sagan_state.py marker [-h] [--event-type EVENT_TYPE]
                             [--from-status FROM_STATUS]
                             [--to-status TO_STATUS] [--note NOTE]
                             [--metadata-json METADATA_JSON]
                             [--actor-kind ACTOR_KIND]
                             [--review-pair {code_review,interpretation,clean_result}]
                             [--round ROUND] [--reviewer REVIEWER]
                             [--verdict {pass,needs_targeted_fix,blocked_needs_user_decision,fail_not_worth_continuing}]
                             [--required-fix REQUIRED_FIX]
                             [--reconciler-decision RECONCILER_DECISION]
                             [--next-status {approved,archived,awaiting_approval,awaiting_promotion,blocked,cancelled,clarifying,code_reviewing,completed,done_experiment,done_impl,failed,followups_running,gate_pending,implementing,interpreting,plan_pending,planning,proposed,queued,reviewing,running,shared,testing,uploading,verifying}]
                             number marker

positional arguments:
  number
  marker

options:
  -h, --help            show this help message and exit
  --event-type EVENT_TYPE
  --from-status FROM_STATUS
  --to-status TO_STATUS
  --note NOTE
  --metadata-json METADATA_JSON
  --actor-kind ACTOR_KIND
  --review-pair {code_review,interpretation,clean_result}
  --round ROUND
  --reviewer REVIEWER
  --verdict {pass,needs_targeted_fix,blocked_needs_user_decision,fail_not_worth_continuing}
  --required-fix REQUIRED_FIX
  --reconciler-decision RECONCILER_DECISION
  --next-status {approved,archived,awaiting_approval,awaiting_promotion,blocked,cancelled,clarifying,code_reviewing,completed,done_experiment,done_impl,failed,followups_running,gate_pending,implementing,interpreting,plan_pending,planning,proposed,queued,reviewing,running,shared,testing,uploading,verifying}
2:21:47 PMassistant_textagent
The previous orchestrator (e1baedab) drove implementing → code_reviewing (rounds 1+2) → done_impl → dispatch, fell back from H100 to A100 due to SUPPLY_CONSTRAINT, and the pod is currently running with a 14h timeout. My orchestrator (0e8dde1a) was queued at 14:17:17 to be the post-pod-completion handler.

Pod was launched just minutes ago (14:17:12). Pod runtime is expected to be 8-14h. I cannot wait for completion in a single session. Let me verify state, post a status note, and exit cleanly so a future orchestrator can pick up at uploading.
2:21:48 PMtool_calltools

tool=Bash

Bash
2:21:48 PMtool_resulttools
Exit code 255
error: cannot open .git/FETCH_HEAD: Read-only file system
2:21:51 PMtool_calltools

tool=Bash

Bash
2:21:51 PMtool_resulttools
<tool_use_error>Cancelled: parallel tool call Bash(cd /home/thomasjiralerspong/explore-pers…) errored</tool_use_error>
2:21:56 PMtool_calltools

tool=Bash

Bash
2:21:56 PMtool_resulttools
4685c5745b0fb9f0c025d813b7ed9827305c9473	refs/heads/issue-363
Shell cwd was reset to /home/thomasjiralerspong/sagan
2:22:07 PMassistant_textagent
The branch issue-363 is at commit 4685c57 on the remote — matches what the previous orchestrator's checkpoint said. The pod is running and the runner owns the running→terminal transition.

Let me post my orchestrator's exit checkpoint so the trail is clean.
2:22:14 PMtool_calltools

tool=Bash

Bash
2:22:15 PMtool_resulttools
{"error":"unknown_marker_type","message":"Marker \"orchestrator-checkpoint\" is not in KNOWN_MARKER_TYPES. Add it to apps/web/src/lib/reviewer-loops.ts and .claude/workflow.yaml before posting."}
2:22:19 PMtool_calltools

tool=Bash

Bash
2:22:19 PMtool_resulttools
export const KNOWN_MARKER_TYPES = [
  return KNOWN_MARKER_TYPES.includes(value as (typeof KNOWN_MARKER_TYPES)[number]);
2:22:24 PMtool_calltools

tool=Bash

Bash
2:22:24 PMtool_resulttools
export const KNOWN_MARKER_TYPES = [
  'epm:clarify',
  'epm:clarify-answers',
  'epm:plan',
  'epm:consistency',
  'epm:experiment-implementation',
  'epm:code-review',
  'epm:code-review-codex',
  'epm:code-review-reconcile',
  'epm:review-reconcile',
  'epm:reviewer-verdict',
  'epm:reviewer-verdict-codex',
  'epm:textbox-answers',
  'epm:reviewer-pass',
  'epm:reviewer-decision',
  'epm:reviewer-ensemble-final',
  'epm:test-verdict',
  'epm:preflight',
  'epm:launch',
  'epm:progress',
  'epm:results',
  'epm:upload-verification',
  'epm:interpretation',
  'epm:interp-critique',
  'epm:interp-critique-codex',
  'epm:interp-revision',
  'epm:clean-result',
  'epm:clean-result-critique',
  'epm:clean-result-critique-codex',
  'epm:clean-result-critique-reconcile',
  'epm:clean-result-lint',
2:22:28 PMtool_calltools

tool=Bash

Bash
2:22:28 PMtool_resulttools
export const KNOWN_MARKER_TYPES = [
  'epm:clarify',
  'epm:clarify-answers',
  'epm:plan',
  'epm:consistency',
  'epm:experiment-implementation',
  'epm:code-review',
  'epm:code-review-codex',
  'epm:code-review-reconcile',
  'epm:review-reconcile',
  'epm:reviewer-verdict',
  'epm:reviewer-verdict-codex',
  'epm:textbox-answers',
  'epm:reviewer-pass',
  'epm:reviewer-decision',
  'epm:reviewer-ensemble-final',
  'epm:test-verdict',
  'epm:preflight',
  'epm:launch',
  'epm:progress',
  'epm:results',
  'epm:upload-verification',
  'epm:interpretation',
  'epm:interp-critique',
  'epm:interp-critique-codex',
  'epm:interp-revision',
  'epm:clean-result',
  'epm:clean-result-critique',
  'epm:clean-result-critique-codex',
  'epm:clean-result-critique-reconcile',
  'epm:clean-result-lint',
  'epm:follow-ups',
  'epm:awaiting-promotion',
  'epm:promoted',
  'epm:done',
  'epm:failure',
  'epm:failure-classify',
  'epm:failure-superseded',
  'epm:hot-fix',
  'epm:hot-fix-needed',
  'epm:pod-pending',
  'epm:pod-terminated',
  'epm:pod-kept-stopped',
  'epm:dispatch',
  'epm:dispatch-blocked',
  'epm:experimenter-respawn',
  'epm:experimenter-status',
  'epm:gate',
  'epm:gate-verdict',
  'epm:gate-override',
  'epm:approval',
2:22:40 PMtool_calltools

tool=Bash

Bash
2:22:41 PMtool_resulttools
{
  "id": "fe93ceed-c215-4903-b269-4a1ca5fa7f18",
  "ok": true
}
2:22:45 PMassistant_textagent
Checkpoint posted. Let me confirm the marker landed and the final state.
2:22:48 PMtool_calltools

tool=Bash

Bash
2:22:48 PMtool_resulttools
current status: running
latest event: 2026-05-13T14:22:41.519Z | note | Orchestrator 0e8dde1a confirming state. Previous orchestrator e1baedab drove implementing → code_rev
event-count: 49
2:22:59 PMassistant_textagent
## Summary

Experiment #363 ("Implement Chen et al. persona-vector extraction recipe and compare to project's centroid-difference recipe") is currently in `status=running` on Sagan.

**What's already complete (driven by previous orchestrator `e1baedab`):**
- `implementing` → `code_reviewing` (round 1: needs_targeted_fix; round 2: pass) → `done_impl` → `queued` → `running`
- Branch `issue-363` @ `4685c57` on `superkaiba/explore-persona-space` (4 files, ~2230 lines: `scripts/run_chen_vs_centroid.py`, `scripts/verify_chen_vs_centroid.py`, `src/explore_persona_space/axis/chen_extract.py`, `src/explore_persona_space/axis/trait_personas.py`)
- All round-1 review findings addressed (cal/rep dedupe, steering scale α·v, position-confound ablation, single block-output hook target, chat-template fix, judge 0-100 → 0-1 normalization)
- Pod dispatched on A100 cloudType=ALL after H100 hit `SUPPLY_CONSTRAINT` twice; timeout extended 10h → 14h
- All implementer + reviewer + reconciler markers (`epm:experiment-implementation`, `epm:code-review`×2, `epm:code-review-codex`×2, `epm:review-reconcile`) are in the trail

**What this orchestrator (`0e8dde1a`) did:**
- Verified state (`running`), verified branch HEAD on the remote, verified the implementation+review trail
- Posted `epm:progress` checkpoint marker (id `fe93ceed-c215-4903-b269-4a1ca5fa7f18`) flagging:
  - Plan-spec drift (gpuType H100→A100, timeout 10h→14h — both pre-documented as fallback, but kill-criterion's 10h wall is silently relaxed to 14h)
  - Pod is in flight, expected runtime 8h, hard cap 14h
  - The `running` → terminal transition is owned by the runner
  - `uploading` → `verifying` → `interpreting` → `reviewing` → `follow-ups` → `awaiting_promotion` will be picked up by the next orchestrator the runner triggers on pod `STOPPED`/`COMPLETED`

The pod was dispatched ~5 minutes ago; there is nothing further this orchestrator session can advance until the pod completes (an event the runner will surface, not a wait this session can usefully block on).

<<<DONE>>>
2:22:59 PMsdk_resultagent
success
2:22:59 PMcompletedagent
## Summary

Experiment #363 ("Implement Chen et al. persona-vector extraction recipe and compare to project's centroid-difference recipe") is currently in `status=running` on Sagan.

**What's already complete (driven by previous orchestrator `e1baedab`):**
- `implementing` → `code_reviewing` (round 1: needs_targeted_fix; round 2: pass) → `done_impl` → `queued` → `running`
- Branch `issue-363` @ `4685c57` on `superkaiba/explore-persona-space` (4 files, ~2230 lines: `scripts/run_chen_vs_centroid.py`, `scripts/verify_chen_vs_centroid.py`, `src/explore_persona_space/axis/chen_extract.py`, `src/explore_persona_space/axis/trait_personas.py`)
- All round-1 review findings addressed (cal/rep dedupe, steering scale α·v, position-confound ablation, single block-output hook target, chat-template fix, judge 0-100 → 0-1 normalization)
- Pod dispatched on A100 cloudType=ALL after H100 hit `SUPPLY_CONSTRAINT` twice; timeout extended 10h → 14h
- All implementer + reviewer + reconciler markers (`epm:ex…

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