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Original request
[direct-dispatch:bypass-orchestrator-block:exp#365:retry-2]

Retry after RunPod 5xx at 08:52.
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Pod xw2pi3f10sn29s not found in account=team
Previous run transcript
- 2026-05-14T09:02:28.520Z deploy_started: dispatching 4 pod(s)
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Statuscompleted61 events · latest 1326h 28m ago

Resume history

This run resumes 15038ff7.

Plan

Goal

Run one balanced 2^5 factorial across five contested factors that prior single-axis experiments could not disentangle, stratified over three source personas (librarian, surgeon, programmer), and rank which factors actually move `[ZLT]` source-rate and off-diagonal leakage under LoRA SFT on Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct. Replaces ad-hoc one-axis sweeps with a single interpretable screen that absorbs the open scope of #361 / #339 / #353 and the still-unrun grid in #46.

Hypothesis

Conditional on the design in the experiment body (96 cells = 3 sources × 32 cells, with seeds 137+256 on the top-3 cells per source), the five factors split into three classes: 1. **Load-bearing (large main effects):** Factor **A** (system-prompt length, short→long) and Factor **E** (loss mask, marker-only→whole-completion) dominate source-rate. A1 raises source-rate; E1 lowers it. Factor **D** (off-policy data) lowers source-rate vs on-policy at matched length. 2. **Non-monotonic / collapsing:** Factor **B** (answer-format length, short→long) collapses source-rate at the long extreme even when system-prompt length is short, replicating #295's null at the long tail. 3. **Near-zero net effect:** Factor **C** (persona vs lexically matched non-persona framing) has near-zero independent main effect on source-rate once A is controlled, but a measurable interaction with A (A×C) carrying most of #337's "persona" signal. For off-diagonal leakage, A1 and E1 both reduce leakage; D1 has the opposite sign to its effect on source-rate.

Prediction

At α=0.05 with question-clustered bootstrap for source-rate and persona-clustered for leakage (per `--bootstrap-cluster-sr question --bootstrap-cluster-lr persona`): - |d(A on SR)| ≥ 0.4 averaged across the three source slabs, sign positive. - |d(E on SR)| ≥ 0.3, sign positive for E0 (marker-only) over E1 (whole-completion). - |d(D on SR)| ≥ 0.2, sign positive for D0 (on-policy) over D1 (off-policy). - |d(B on SR)| ≥ 0.3 at the B1 extreme with a non-monotone shape vs B0. - |d(C on SR)| < 0.15 once A is partialled out. - Pre-registered F1×F2 interaction: A×B yields a measurable interaction term (>2× the next-largest interaction) because the question-prefix tokens for B compete with persona-conditioning context from A. Signs and magnitudes are read off pod 3's `main_effects.json` / `interactions.json` after Phase 4 aggregation.

Kill Criterion

Pull the plug — and treat the screen as uninterpretable — if any of the following fires: 1. **Phase 0 pre-screen fails:** base-model contamination on the 24×20×5 eval panel exceeds the pre-registered threshold (`kill_criterion_4_passed=False` in pod 0). Pod 0 raises `SystemExit` and the run aborts. 2. **Phase 1 smoke fails:** the 8-cell resolution-III fractional factorial on librarian returns verdict ≠ `pass` (e.g. uniform near-zero or saturated source-rates across all 8 cells). Indicates the training recipe or marker setup is broken at the level of the librarian source, so the full 32-cell sweep cannot rank factors. 3. **Sign instability across sources:** after Phase 4 aggregation, ≥3 of the 5 main effects flip sign across the three sources. The 5-factor framing is wrong and we re-scope at the persona-class level before any further dispatch. 4. **All main effects below noise:** all 5 main effects have |Cohen's d| < 0.15 for source-rate AND for leakage across all three sources. The screen has no statistical power at this dataset size; we revisit pos/neg counts or LoRA rank before re-running. 5. **Cost overrun:** any single pod exceeds 24 h wall-time (the `phase4-max-wait-seconds` hard cap), or aggregate spend exceeds ~$160 (≈ 1.5× the planned compute estimate below). Operator stops the run and triages. 6. **Recovery-specific bootstrap silence:** if all four pods reach `RUNNING` but emit zero `5% · bootstrap complete` progress notes within 5 min of `RUNNING`, the operator stops the dispatch (suspected bootstrap-wrapper hang or account-credential flake — see Risks §Recovery context). This is the explicit detector for the failure mode that triggered this auto-recovery.

Experimental Setup

Faithful to the body's design and the persisted `pod_spec` on `experiments.077ae4c7-…`, instantiated by the existing `eps.experiments.marker_factor_screen` entry point. - **Branch / commit:** `experiment-365` @ `b1a24b4b04f92598e381fa3cd207a0fe5d24b9e7` (matches the patched `pod_spec` and the `_factor_screen/` module tree currently on disk under `/home/thomasjiralerspong/explore-persona-space/eps/experiments/`). The runner injects `SAGAN_EPS_BRANCH=experiment-365` and `SAGAN_EPS_COMMIT_SHA=b1a24b4b...` so the bootstrap wrapper checks out the exact commit on each pod. - **Model and tooling:** Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct, LoRA r=32 α=64, lr=1e-5, 3 epochs. 200 positives + 400 negatives per source. 24-persona × 20-question × 5-completion eval panel with `eval_max_new_tokens=2048`. Clustered bootstrap, question-clustered for source-rate, persona-clustered for leakage. - **Pod topology (4 pods, role-distinct):** - **Pod 0** (`librarian`): Phase 0 base-model contamination pre-screen → Phase 1 res-III smoke → Phase 2 full 32-cell librarian slab at seed 42 → Phase 3 multi-seed top-3 librarian cells (seeds 137, 256). Runs `--run-pre-screen --run-smoke`. - **Pod 1** (`surgeon`): Phase 2 32-cell surgeon slab at seed 42 → Phase 3 multi-seed top-3 surgeon cells. No pre-screen/smoke flags (those gate the whole experiment from pod 0). - **Pod 2** (`programmer`): same shape as pod 1 for the programmer slab. - **Pod 3** (`aggregator-and-overflow`): waits up to 24 h for the three slab `metrics.json` files, then builds `main_effects.json`, `interactions.json`, the persona × cell heatmap, and the clean-result HTML. Runs `--role aggregator-and-overflow --build-figures --write-clean-result --label-f1xf2-preregistered`. - **Pre-registration:** the A×B (system-prompt length × answer-format length) interaction is the one pre-registered two-way; the other nine are reported but labeled exploratory in the aggregator output.

Compute and Hardware

**Topology.** Four pods, each 1× A100 80GB. This is a deliberate, multi-pod array under clause (c) — explicit per-pod role isolation — not the discouraged "one-pod-per-source" anti-pattern: - Pods 0/1/2 are the three source slabs and could in principle batch-share one node, but the script's `--pod-index` / `--source-persona` / `--num-pods` contract (`marker_factor_screen.py:69-79, 153-265`) and pod 0's extra Phase 0/1 gates make them heterogeneous workloads with independent kill criteria. - Pod 3 is a long-running stateful aggregator that polls sibling pods' `metrics.json` until they exist; it must outlive any single training process and runs different code (figure-building, no SFT). It would be wasteful to keep a 4-GPU node alive for the ~24 h aggregator wait. Consolidating to a single 4-GPU node would require an `accelerate`-style rewrite of the entry point that does not exist on `experiment-365`. That rewrite is out of scope for this recovery dispatch and is the right shape for a future ablation. **Time and cost.** - Compute: 4 pods × 1 GPU × 18 h × **$1.49/GPU-hr** (A100 80GB SXM, RunPod Secure Cloud, May 2026 reference rate per the system-prompt rate table) ≈ **$107**. - Storage: 4 × (100 GB volume + 100 GB container disk) × 18 h at $0.10/GB-month ≈ **$2**. - **Total estimated spend ≈ $110** (rounded to two significant figures), with a $160 cost-overrun kill at 1.5×. Rates may drift; the auditor's input is the rate stated here. **Substitution policy delta vs prior dispatch.** The persisted `pod_spec.substitution_policy.account.prefer` was `"team"`. For this recovery dispatch, `prefer` is flipped to `"personal"` because both prior team-account dispatches (`15038ff7…` and the `910a65d6…` whose failure triggered this recovery) hit `Pod not found in account=team` at ~10–15 min after reaching `RUNNING`. The personal account remains in `allowed` so future revisions can swap back once the team-account flake is resolved. The script binds one GPU per pod, so `gpuCount` stays pinned to 1. A100/H100/H200 ≥80 GB are all acceptable; Secure preferred over Community.

Artifacts

- **Per-source pod (0/1/2) under `/workspace/runs/365/pod<i>/<source>/`:** `metrics.json`, LoRA adapters under `adapters/`, `figures/` (per-source heatmap, A×B interaction plot, factor-ranking bar chart). - **Pod 0 extras under `/workspace/runs/365/pod0/`:** `pre_screen.json`, `smoke.json`. - **Pod 3 aggregator under `/workspace/runs/365/pod3/`:** `main_effects.json`, `interactions.json`, `aggregate_metrics.json`, `figures/persona_cell_heatmap.svg`, `figures/factor_ranking.svg`, `figures/AxB_interaction.svg`, `clean_result.html` (the experiment-page `body`). - **Sagan-side:** new `experiments.body` HTML written by `--write-clean-result` and the aggregator figures uploaded as `html_artifact` / `image` figures linked to experiment #365.

Verification

Pre-flight (operator does this before re-dispatch and at first progress-tick): 1. **Spec parity check.** Diff this plan's `runpod-spec` against the persisted `experiments.077ae4c7…pod_spec`: identical except for `substitution_policy.account.prefer` (`"team"` → `"personal"`). No other field changes. 2. **Bootstrap progress check.** Within 5 min of each pod reaching `RUNNING`, the runner expects a `5% · bootstrap complete` progress event from each of the four pods. If zero pods emit it (the recovery-trigger failure mode), abort and SSH into one pod to tail `journalctl` and the bootstrap wrapper log before retrying. 3. **Phase 0/1 gates.** Pod 0 must emit `kill_pre_screen` verdict=`passed` and `kill_smoke` verdict=`pass` before pods 1/2/3 are allowed to consume significant compute. The script raises `SystemExit` on failure; the runner surfaces that as a hard stop. Post-run (operator checks before declaring the screen interpretable): 4. `main_effects.json` reports five main effects with bootstrap CIs and Cohen's d for both source-rate and leakage. All three sources represented in the underlying slab summaries. 5. `interactions.json` reports all ten two-way interactions with the A×B row carrying a `pre_registered: true` flag. 6. `clean_result.html` follows `docs/clean-result-guidelines.md` (TL;DR → primary plot → Experimental design dropdown) and is attached to `experiments.body` on experiment #365.

Risks and Red Team

**Risk 1 — multi-pod partial-dispatch sensitivity.** Per the system prompt, partial dispatch of a multi-pod array is treated as a hard failure; this is what happened at 08:56 (2/4 came up). The substitution policy below allows the provisioner to fall back to community cloud or back to the team account; if capacity is still tight, the operator should consider running pod 0 alone as a 1-pod smoke before fanning out. **Risk 2 — recurring team-account vanishing (the recovery trigger).** Two prior team-account dispatches (`15038ff7…` and `910a65d6…`) hit `Pod not found in account=team` 10–15 min after all four pods reported `RUNNING`. Root cause is still ambiguous (team-account credentials event vs. bootstrap-wrapper hang vs. RunPod team-account inventory drift). This recovery dispatch flips `account.prefer` to `personal` so we exercise a different surface. If the same vanishing fires under `personal`, the failure is upstream of the account choice and the operator should SSH into one pod to tail `journalctl` / wrapper logs before any further retry, per the prior planner's recommendation. Verification step 2 is the explicit detector. **Risk 3 — single-seed factor ranks.** Most cells run at seed 42 only; multi-seed coverage is restricted to the top-3 per source. A factor ranked 2nd or 3rd whose true effect is borderline could swap with a 4th-ranked factor under seed noise. We accept this risk because broadening multi-seed to all 32×3 cells multiplies compute by 3× and is out of cost scope. **Risk 4 — F1×F2 pre-registration vs the other 9 interactions.** With 10 two-way interactions reported and a single one pre-registered, multiple-comparison hygiene matters. The aggregator labels exploratory interactions accordingly; we do not claim significance for any exploratory interaction without a confirmatory experiment. **Risk 5 — A/B confound on user-message tokens.** Even though B is induced by a natural format instruction, the instruction tokens still live inside the user message and could shift attention patterns independent of completion length. This is a genuine confound the screen cannot fully separate; the A×B interaction term is the diagnostic and is pre-registered for that reason. **Critique loop notes.** This is a re-finalization of an owner-approved design (the planJson is fully populated and the design body has been stable across multiple rounds). The scientific design is unchanged from the prior approved plan; the only delta is `runpod-spec.substitution_policy.account.prefer` flipping from `"team"` to `"personal"` plus the corresponding addition of kill criterion #6 (bootstrap-silence detector) and Verification step 2. I ran the consistency check internally rather than the full paired-critic loop because (a) the design is owner-approved, (b) the open question is purely whether the `runpod-spec` matches the patched DB state and the script's CLI contract, and (c) the script's `parse_args` (`marker_factor_screen.py:62-138`) was re-verified against each pod's `dockerArgs`. Loops run: 0 (re-finalize); merged verdict: pass for methodology, statistics, and alternative-explanations because no design field changed; no follow-ups intentionally dropped. If a future revision changes any scientific field, that revision should re-enter the full paired-critic loop.

Likely Clean Result

A `body` HTML on experiment #365 following `docs/clean-result-guidelines.md`: - **TL;DR (single paragraph in first person):** "I ran a balanced 2^5 factorial across five marker-implantation factors on three source personas. System-prompt length and loss-mask scope were the two load-bearing knobs, both with Cohen's d > 0.4 on source-rate; persona framing had near-zero independent effect once length was controlled, confirming #340. Long answer-format prompts collapsed source-rate at the extreme, replicating #295. Off-policy data lost ~0.2 d of source-rate vs on-policy at matched length." - **Primary plot:** a single bar chart of the five main-effect Cohen's d's on source-rate with 95% bootstrap CIs, ordered largest-to-smallest, with plain-English axis labels ("system-prompt length", "loss masks marker only", etc.) and SVG `<title>` hover tooltips carrying the underlying mean and CI. - **Experimental design dropdown:** the 32-cell factor table, the 3-source stratification, the seed plan, the bootstrap scheme, and the kill-criterion list — collapsed by default. Sections deliberately omitted per the clean-result guidelines: separate Background / Methodology h2s, standing caveats, references to the abandoned single-axis sweeps, and the additional per-source heatmaps (those live as linked figures, not in the body).

Approval Checklist

- [x] **Goal** matches the experiment record title and absorbs the open scope of #361 / #339 / #353 / #46. - [x] **Hypothesis** is specific: five factors split into three classes with signed predictions for each. - [x] **Prediction** is falsifiable: numeric Cohen's d thresholds with α=0.05 and a named bootstrap scheme. - [x] **Kill criterion** has six concrete triggers, including the new bootstrap-silence detector that directly responds to the recovery-trigger failure mode. - [x] **Compute and Hardware** estimates 4 × 1 × 18 h × $1.49 ≈ $107 compute + ~$2 storage = **~$110 total** at A100 80GB SXM Secure Cloud rates; cost-overrun kill at $160. Multi-pod array is justified under clause (c) per-pod role isolation; consolidation deferred to a future ablation. - [x] **Artifacts** enumerated per-pod and aggregator with `/workspace/runs/365/...` paths matching the script's directory contract. - [x] **Verification** covers spec parity, the bootstrap-progress detector, Phase 0/1 kill gates, and the aggregator's required JSONs / clean-result HTML. - [x] **Risks** explicitly cover the team-account vanishing failure that triggered this recovery and document the rationale for flipping `account.prefer` to `personal`. - [x] **Likely clean result** follows `docs/clean-result-guidelines.md` (TL;DR → primary plot → design dropdown, first-person voice, no standing caveats). - [x] **`runpod-spec` matches the plan**: 4 pods, A100 80GB Secure Cloud preferred, single-GPU per pod, `account.prefer=personal` with `team` retained in `allowed`, and per-pod `dockerArgs` identical to the persisted `experiments.077ae4c7…pod_spec` save for that one substitution-policy field. ```runpod-spec [ { "name": "marker-screen-365-pod0-pre-and-source-librarian", "gpuType": "A100", "gpuCount": 1, "volumeGb": 100, "containerDiskGb": 100, "cloudType": "SECURE", "estimatedMinutes": 1080, "env": { "SAGAN_EPS_BRANCH": "experiment-365", "SAGAN_EPS_COMMIT_SHA": "b1a24b4b04f92598e381fa3cd207a0fe5d24b9e7" }, "dockerArgs": "bash -lc 'set -euo pipefail; cd /workspace/explore-persona-space && uv run python -m eps.experiments.marker_factor_screen --pod-index 0 --num-pods 4 --source-persona librarian --base-model Qwen/Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct --intent lora-7b --lora-r 32 --lora-alpha 64 --lr 1e-5 --epochs 3 --pos-per-source 200 --neg-per-source 400 --eval-personas 24 --eval-questions 20 --eval-completions 5 --primary-seed 42 --multi-seeds 137,256 --bootstrap-scheme clustered --bootstrap-cluster-sr question --bootstrap-cluster-lr persona --run-pre-screen --run-smoke --progress-url \"$SAGAN_PROGRESS_URL\" --progress-token \"$SAGAN_POD_PROGRESS_TOKEN\" --agent-run-id \"$SAGAN_AGENT_RUN_ID\" --experiment-id \"$SAGAN_EXPERIMENT_ID\" --run-index \"$SAGAN_RUN_INDEX\"'", "config": { "command": "Pod 0: Phase 0 base-model contamination pre-screen on 24x20x5 eval panel + Phase 1 8-cell res-III librarian smoke (kill gates only) + Phase 2 32-cell librarian slab at primary seed + Phase 3 multi-seed top-3 librarian cells (seeds 137, 256). Clustered bootstrap (question-clustered SR, persona-clustered LR).", "artifacts": [ "/workspace/runs/365/pod0/pre_screen.json", "/workspace/runs/365/pod0/smoke.json", "/workspace/runs/365/pod0/librarian/metrics.json", "/workspace/runs/365/pod0/librarian/adapters/", "/workspace/runs/365/pod0/figures/" ] }, "substitution_policy": { "gpuType": { "allowed": ["A100", "A100-SXM", "H100", "H200"], "min_vram_gb": 80 }, "gpuCount": { "min": 1, "max": 1 }, "cloudType": { "allowed": ["SECURE", "COMMUNITY"], "prefer": "SECURE" }, "dataCenterId": { "allowed": "any" }, "account": { "allowed": ["personal", "team"], "prefer": "personal" }, "volumeGb": { "min": 100 }, "containerDiskGb": { "min": 100 } }, "consolidation": { "may_merge_pods": false, "merge_target_max_gpus_per_pod": 1 } }, { "name": "marker-screen-365-pod1-source-surgeon", "gpuType": "A100", "gpuCount": 1, "volumeGb": 100, "containerDiskGb": 100, "cloudType": "SECURE", "estimatedMinutes": 1080, "env": { "SAGAN_EPS_BRANCH": "experiment-365", "SAGAN_EPS_COMMIT_SHA": "b1a24b4b04f92598e381fa3cd207a0fe5d24b9e7" }, "dockerArgs": "bash -lc 'set -euo pipefail; cd /workspace/explore-persona-space && uv run python -m eps.experiments.marker_factor_screen --pod-index 1 --num-pods 4 --source-persona surgeon --base-model Qwen/Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct --intent lora-7b --lora-r 32 --lora-alpha 64 --lr 1e-5 --epochs 3 --pos-per-source 200 --neg-per-source 400 --eval-personas 24 --eval-questions 20 --eval-completions 5 --primary-seed 42 --multi-seeds 137,256 --bootstrap-scheme clustered --bootstrap-cluster-sr question --bootstrap-cluster-lr persona --progress-url \"$SAGAN_PROGRESS_URL\" --progress-token \"$SAGAN_POD_PROGRESS_TOKEN\" --agent-run-id \"$SAGAN_AGENT_RUN_ID\" --experiment-id \"$SAGAN_EXPERIMENT_ID\" --run-index \"$SAGAN_RUN_INDEX\"'", "config": { "command": "Pod 1: Phase 2 32-cell surgeon slab at primary seed 42 + Phase 3 multi-seed top-3 surgeon cells (seeds 137, 256). Clustered bootstrap (question-clustered SR, persona-clustered LR).", "artifacts": [ "/workspace/runs/365/pod1/surgeon/metrics.json", "/workspace/runs/365/pod1/surgeon/adapters/", "/workspace/runs/365/pod1/figures/" ] }, "substitution_policy": { "gpuType": { "allowed": ["A100", "A100-SXM", "H100", "H200"], "min_vram_gb": 80 }, "gpuCount": { "min": 1, "max": 1 }, "cloudType": { "allowed": ["SECURE", "COMMUNITY"], "prefer": "SECURE" }, "dataCenterId": { "allowed": "any" }, "account": { "allowed": ["personal", "team"], "prefer": "personal" }, "volumeGb": { "min": 100 }, "containerDiskGb": { "min": 100 } }, "consolidation": { "may_merge_pods": false, "merge_target_max_gpus_per_pod": 1 } }, { "name": "marker-screen-365-pod2-source-programmer", "gpuType": "A100", "gpuCount": 1, "volumeGb": 100, "containerDiskGb": 100, "cloudType": "SECURE", "estimatedMinutes": 1080, "env": { "SAGAN_EPS_BRANCH": "experiment-365", "SAGAN_EPS_COMMIT_SHA": "b1a24b4b04f92598e381fa3cd207a0fe5d24b9e7" }, "dockerArgs": "bash -lc 'set -euo pipefail; cd /workspace/explore-persona-space && uv run python -m eps.experiments.marker_factor_screen --pod-index 2 --num-pods 4 --source-persona programmer --base-model Qwen/Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct --intent lora-7b --lora-r 32 --lora-alpha 64 --lr 1e-5 --epochs 3 --pos-per-source 200 --neg-per-source 400 --eval-personas 24 --eval-questions 20 --eval-completions 5 --primary-seed 42 --multi-seeds 137,256 --bootstrap-scheme clustered --bootstrap-cluster-sr question --bootstrap-cluster-lr persona --progress-url \"$SAGAN_PROGRESS_URL\" --progress-token \"$SAGAN_POD_PROGRESS_TOKEN\" --agent-run-id \"$SAGAN_AGENT_RUN_ID\" --experiment-id \"$SAGAN_EXPERIMENT_ID\" --run-index \"$SAGAN_RUN_INDEX\"'", "config": { "command": "Pod 2: Phase 2 32-cell programmer slab at primary seed 42 + Phase 3 multi-seed top-3 programmer cells (seeds 137, 256). Clustered bootstrap (question-clustered SR, persona-clustered LR).", "artifacts": [ "/workspace/runs/365/pod2/programmer/metrics.json", "/workspace/runs/365/pod2/programmer/adapters/", "/workspace/runs/365/pod2/figures/" ] }, "substitution_policy": { "gpuType": { "allowed": ["A100", "A100-SXM", "H100", "H200"], "min_vram_gb": 80 }, "gpuCount": { "min": 1, "max": 1 }, "cloudType": { "allowed": ["SECURE", "COMMUNITY"], "prefer": "SECURE" }, "dataCenterId": { "allowed": "any" }, "account": { "allowed": ["personal", "team"], "prefer": "personal" }, "volumeGb": { "min": 100 }, "containerDiskGb": { "min": 100 } }, "consolidation": { "may_merge_pods": false, "merge_target_max_gpus_per_pod": 1 } }, { "name": "marker-screen-365-pod3-aggregator-and-overflow", "gpuType": "A100", "gpuCount": 1, "volumeGb": 100, "containerDiskGb": 100, "cloudType": "SECURE", "estimatedMinutes": 1080, "env": { "SAGAN_EPS_BRANCH": "experiment-365", "SAGAN_EPS_COMMIT_SHA": "b1a24b4b04f92598e381fa3cd207a0fe5d24b9e7" }, "dockerArgs": "bash -lc 'set -euo pipefail; cd /workspace/explore-persona-space && uv run python -m eps.experiments.marker_factor_screen --pod-index 3 --num-pods 4 --role aggregator-and-overflow --base-model Qwen/Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct --intent lora-7b --lora-r 32 --lora-alpha 64 --lr 1e-5 --epochs 3 --eval-personas 24 --eval-questions 20 --eval-completions 5 --primary-seed 42 --multi-seeds 137,256 --bootstrap-scheme clustered --bootstrap-cluster-sr question --bootstrap-cluster-lr persona --build-figures --write-clean-result --label-f1xf2-preregistered --progress-url \"$SAGAN_PROGRESS_URL\" --progress-token \"$SAGAN_POD_PROGRESS_TOKEN\" --agent-run-id \"$SAGAN_AGENT_RUN_ID\" --experiment-id \"$SAGAN_EXPERIMENT_ID\" --run-index \"$SAGAN_RUN_INDEX\"'", "config": { "command": "Pod 3: Phase 4 aggregator. Waits up to 24h for pods 0/1/2 metrics.json files, then builds main_effects.json, interactions.json (with A x B pre-registered), the persona x cell heatmap, the factor-ranking bar chart, the A x B interaction plot, and the clean-result HTML attached to experiments.body.", "artifacts": [ "/workspace/runs/365/pod3/main_effects.json", "/workspace/runs/365/pod3/interactions.json", "/workspace/runs/365/pod3/aggregate_metrics.json", "/workspace/runs/365/pod3/figures/persona_cell_heatmap.svg", "/workspace/runs/365/pod3/figures/factor_ranking.svg", "/workspace/runs/365/pod3/figures/AxB_interaction.svg", "/workspace/runs/365/pod3/clean_result.html" ] }, "substitution_policy": { "gpuType": { "allowed": ["A100", "A100-SXM", "H100", "H200"], "min_vram_gb": 80 }, "gpuCount": { "min": 1, "max": 1 }, "cloudType": { "allowed": ["SECURE", "COMMUNITY"], "prefer": "SECURE" }, "dataCenterId": { "allowed": "any" }, "account": { "allowed": ["personal", "team"], "prefer": "personal" }, "volumeGb": { "min": 100 }, "containerDiskGb": { "min": 100 } }, "consolidation": { "may_merge_pods": false, "merge_target_max_gpus_per_pod": 1 } } ] ``` **Recovery summary.** Diagnosed the failure as the recurring team-account post-RUNNING vanishing (Risk 2 from the prior plan). Re-emitted the owner-approved 4-pod plan unchanged except for: (1) `substitution_policy.account.prefer` flipped from `team` to `personal`; (2) kill criterion #6 added as an explicit detector for the same failure mode under the new account; (3) Verification step 2 documents the 5-min bootstrap-progress check. The persisted `experiments.077ae4c7…pod_spec` already has `personal` in `account.allowed`, so this is a scope-preserving recovery, not a design change.

I have enough context. The previous direct-dispatch failed because all 4 RunPod pods successfully reached RUNNING on the team account, then simultaneously disappeared from inventory ~11 min later — the exact recurring failure mode the prior planner flagged as Risk 2. The persisted substitution_policy already allows personal as a fallback, but prefer="team" keeps re-dispatching into the failing surface. The minimal scope-preserving fix is to flip account.prefer to personal for this recovery dispatch and re-emit the otherwise unchanged owner-approved plan.

Goal

Run one balanced 2^5 factorial across five contested factors that prior single-axis experiments could not disentangle, stratified over three source personas (librarian, surgeon, programmer), and rank which factors actually move [ZLT] source-rate and off-diagonal leakage under LoRA SFT on Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct. Replaces ad-hoc one-axis sweeps with a single interpretable screen that absorbs the open scope of #361 / #339 / #353 and the still-unrun grid in #46.

Hypothesis

Conditional on the design in the experiment body (96 cells = 3 sources × 32 cells, with seeds 137+256 on the top-3 cells per source), the five factors split into three classes:

  1. Load-bearing (large main effects): Factor A (system-prompt length, short→long) and Factor E (loss mask, marker-only→whole-completion) dominate source-rate. A1 raises source-rate; E1 lowers it. Factor D (off-policy data) lowers source-rate vs on-policy at matched length.
  2. Non-monotonic / collapsing: Factor B (answer-format length, short→long) collapses source-rate at the long extreme even when system-prompt length is short, replicating #295's null at the long tail.
  3. Near-zero net effect: Factor C (persona vs lexically matched non-persona framing) has near-zero independent main effect on source-rate once A is controlled, but a measurable interaction with A (A×C) carrying most of #337's "persona" signal.

For off-diagonal leakage, A1 and E1 both reduce leakage; D1 has the opposite sign to its effect on source-rate.

Prediction

At α=0.05 with question-clustered bootstrap for source-rate and persona-clustered for leakage (per --bootstrap-cluster-sr question --bootstrap-cluster-lr persona):

  • |d(A on SR)| ≥ 0.4 averaged across the three source slabs, sign positive.
  • |d(E on SR)| ≥ 0.3, sign positive for E0 (marker-only) over E1 (whole-completion).
  • |d(D on SR)| ≥ 0.2, sign positive for D0 (on-policy) over D1 (off-policy).
  • |d(B on SR)| ≥ 0.3 at the B1 extreme with a non-monotone shape vs B0.
  • |d(C on SR)| < 0.15 once A is partialled out.
  • Pre-registered F1×F2 interaction: A×B yields a measurable interaction term (>2× the next-largest interaction) because the question-prefix tokens for B compete with persona-conditioning context from A.

Signs and magnitudes are read off pod 3's main_effects.json / interactions.json after Phase 4 aggregation.

Kill Criterion

Pull the plug — and treat the screen as uninterpretable — if any of the following fires:

  1. Phase 0 pre-screen fails: base-model contamination on the 24×20×5 eval panel exceeds the pre-registered threshold (kill_criterion_4_passed=False in pod 0). Pod 0 raises SystemExit and the run aborts.
  2. Phase 1 smoke fails: the 8-cell resolution-III fractional factorial on librarian returns verdict ≠ pass (e.g. uniform near-zero or saturated source-rates across all 8 cells). Indicates the training recipe or marker setup is broken at the level of the librarian source, so the full 32-cell sweep cannot rank factors.
  3. Sign instability across sources: after Phase 4 aggregation, ≥3 of the 5 main effects flip sign across the three sources. The 5-factor framing is wrong and we re-scope at the persona-class level before any further dispatch.
  4. All main effects below noise: all 5 main effects have |Cohen's d| < 0.15 for source-rate AND for leakage across all three sources. The screen has no statistical power at this dataset size; we revisit pos/neg counts or LoRA rank before re-running.
  5. Cost overrun: any single pod exceeds 24 h wall-time (the phase4-max-wait-seconds hard cap), or aggregate spend exceeds ~$160 (≈ 1.5× the planned compute estimate below). Operator stops the run and triages.
  6. Recovery-specific bootstrap silence: if all four pods reach RUNNING but emit zero 5% · bootstrap complete progress notes within 5 min of RUNNING, the operator stops the dispatch (suspected bootstrap-wrapper hang or account-credential flake — see Risks §Recovery context). This is the explicit detector for the failure mode that triggered this auto-recovery.

Experimental Setup

Faithful to the body's design and the persisted pod_spec on experiments.077ae4c7-…, instantiated by the existing eps.experiments.marker_factor_screen entry point.

  • Branch / commit: experiment-365 @ b1a24b4b04f92598e381fa3cd207a0fe5d24b9e7 (matches the patched pod_spec and the _factor_screen/ module tree currently on disk under /home/thomasjiralerspong/explore-persona-space/eps/experiments/). The runner injects SAGAN_EPS_BRANCH=experiment-365 and SAGAN_EPS_COMMIT_SHA=b1a24b4b... so the bootstrap wrapper checks out the exact commit on each pod.
  • Model and tooling: Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct, LoRA r=32 α=64, lr=1e-5, 3 epochs. 200 positives + 400 negatives per source. 24-persona × 20-question × 5-completion eval panel with eval_max_new_tokens=2048. Clustered bootstrap, question-clustered for source-rate, persona-clustered for leakage.
  • Pod topology (4 pods, role-distinct):
    • Pod 0 (librarian): Phase 0 base-model contamination pre-screen → Phase 1 res-III smoke → Phase 2 full 32-cell librarian slab at seed 42 → Phase 3 multi-seed top-3 librarian cells (seeds 137, 256). Runs --run-pre-screen --run-smoke.
    • Pod 1 (surgeon): Phase 2 32-cell surgeon slab at seed 42 → Phase 3 multi-seed top-3 surgeon cells. No pre-screen/smoke flags (those gate the whole experiment from pod 0).
    • Pod 2 (programmer): same shape as pod 1 for the programmer slab.
    • Pod 3 (aggregator-and-overflow): waits up to 24 h for the three slab metrics.json files, then builds main_effects.json, interactions.json, the persona × cell heatmap, and the clean-result HTML. Runs --role aggregator-and-overflow --build-figures --write-clean-result --label-f1xf2-preregistered.
  • Pre-registration: the A×B (system-prompt length × answer-format length) interaction is the one pre-registered two-way; the other nine are reported but labeled exploratory in the aggregator output.

Compute and Hardware

Topology. Four pods, each 1× A100 80GB. This is a deliberate, multi-pod array under clause (c) — explicit per-pod role isolation — not the discouraged "one-pod-per-source" anti-pattern:

  • Pods 0/1/2 are the three source slabs and could in principle batch-share one node, but the script's --pod-index / --source-persona / --num-pods contract (marker_factor_screen.py:69-79, 153-265) and pod 0's extra Phase 0/1 gates make them heterogeneous workloads with independent kill criteria.
  • Pod 3 is a long-running stateful aggregator that polls sibling pods' metrics.json until they exist; it must outlive any single training process and runs different code (figure-building, no SFT). It would be wasteful to keep a 4-GPU node alive for the ~24 h aggregator wait.

Consolidating to a single 4-GPU node would require an accelerate-style rewrite of the entry point that does not exist on experiment-365. That rewrite is out of scope for this recovery dispatch and is the right shape for a future ablation.

Time and cost.

  • Compute: 4 pods × 1 GPU × 18 h × $1.49/GPU-hr (A100 80GB SXM, RunPod Secure Cloud, May 2026 reference rate per the system-prompt rate table) ≈ $107.
  • Storage: 4 × (100 GB volume + 100 GB container disk) × 18 h at $0.10/GB-month ≈ $2.
  • Total estimated spend ≈ $110 (rounded to two significant figures), with a $160 cost-overrun kill at 1.5×.

Rates may drift; the auditor's input is the rate stated here.

Substitution policy delta vs prior dispatch. The persisted pod_spec.substitution_policy.account.prefer was "team". For this recovery dispatch, prefer is flipped to "personal" because both prior team-account dispatches (15038ff7… and the 910a65d6… whose failure triggered this recovery) hit Pod not found in account=team at ~10–15 min after reaching RUNNING. The personal account remains in allowed so future revisions can swap back once the team-account flake is resolved. The script binds one GPU per pod, so gpuCount stays pinned to 1. A100/H100/H200 ≥80 GB are all acceptable; Secure preferred over Community.

Artifacts

  • Per-source pod (0/1/2) under /workspace/runs/365/pod<i>/<source>/: metrics.json, LoRA adapters under adapters/, figures/ (per-source heatmap, A×B interaction plot, factor-ranking bar chart).
  • Pod 0 extras under /workspace/runs/365/pod0/: pre_screen.json, smoke.json.
  • Pod 3 aggregator under /workspace/runs/365/pod3/: main_effects.json, interactions.json, aggregate_metrics.json, figures/persona_cell_heatmap.svg, figures/factor_ranking.svg, figures/AxB_interaction.svg, clean_result.html (the experiment-page body).
  • Sagan-side: new experiments.body HTML written by --write-clean-result and the aggregator figures uploaded as html_artifact / image figures linked to experiment #365.

Verification

Pre-flight (operator does this before re-dispatch and at first progress-tick):

  1. Spec parity check. Diff this plan's runpod-spec against the persisted experiments.077ae4c7…pod_spec: identical except for substitution_policy.account.prefer ("team""personal"). No other field changes.
  2. Bootstrap progress check. Within 5 min of each pod reaching RUNNING, the runner expects a 5% · bootstrap complete progress event from each of the four pods. If zero pods emit it (the recovery-trigger failure mode), abort and SSH into one pod to tail journalctl and the bootstrap wrapper log before retrying.
  3. Phase 0/1 gates. Pod 0 must emit kill_pre_screen verdict=passed and kill_smoke verdict=pass before pods 1/2/3 are allowed to consume significant compute. The script raises SystemExit on failure; the runner surfaces that as a hard stop.

Post-run (operator checks before declaring the screen interpretable):

  1. main_effects.json reports five main effects with bootstrap CIs and Cohen's d for both source-rate and leakage. All three sources represented in the underlying slab summaries.
  2. interactions.json reports all ten two-way interactions with the A×B row carrying a pre_registered: true flag.
  3. clean_result.html follows docs/clean-result-guidelines.md (TL;DR → primary plot → Experimental design dropdown) and is attached to experiments.body on experiment #365.

Risks and Red Team

Risk 1 — multi-pod partial-dispatch sensitivity. Per the system prompt, partial dispatch of a multi-pod array is treated as a hard failure; this is what happened at 08:56 (2/4 came up). The substitution policy below allows the provisioner to fall back to community cloud or back to the team account; if capacity is still tight, the operator should consider running pod 0 alone as a 1-pod smoke before fanning out.

Risk 2 — recurring team-account vanishing (the recovery trigger). Two prior team-account dispatches (15038ff7… and 910a65d6…) hit Pod not found in account=team 10–15 min after all four pods reported RUNNING. Root cause is still ambiguous (team-account credentials event vs. bootstrap-wrapper hang vs. RunPod team-account inventory drift). This recovery dispatch flips account.prefer to personal so we exercise a different surface. If the same vanishing fires under personal, the failure is upstream of the account choice and the operator should SSH into one pod to tail journalctl / wrapper logs before any further retry, per the prior planner's recommendation. Verification step 2 is the explicit detector.

Risk 3 — single-seed factor ranks. Most cells run at seed 42 only; multi-seed coverage is restricted to the top-3 per source. A factor ranked 2nd or 3rd whose true effect is borderline could swap with a 4th-ranked factor under seed noise. We accept this risk because broadening multi-seed to all 32×3 cells multiplies compute by 3× and is out of cost scope.

Risk 4 — F1×F2 pre-registration vs the other 9 interactions. With 10 two-way interactions reported and a single one pre-registered, multiple-comparison hygiene matters. The aggregator labels exploratory interactions accordingly; we do not claim significance for any exploratory interaction without a confirmatory experiment.

Risk 5 — A/B confound on user-message tokens. Even though B is induced by a natural format instruction, the instruction tokens still live inside the user message and could shift attention patterns independent of completion length. This is a genuine confound the screen cannot fully separate; the A×B interaction term is the diagnostic and is pre-registered for that reason.

Critique loop notes. This is a re-finalization of an owner-approved design (the planJson is fully populated and the design body has been stable across multiple rounds). The scientific design is unchanged from the prior approved plan; the only delta is runpod-spec.substitution_policy.account.prefer flipping from "team" to "personal" plus the corresponding addition of kill criterion #6 (bootstrap-silence detector) and Verification step 2. I ran the consistency check internally rather than the full paired-critic loop because (a) the design is owner-approved, (b) the open question is purely whether the runpod-spec matches the patched DB state and the script's CLI contract, and (c) the script's parse_args (marker_factor_screen.py:62-138) was re-verified against each pod's dockerArgs. Loops run: 0 (re-finalize); merged verdict: pass for methodology, statistics, and alternative-explanations because no design field changed; no follow-ups intentionally dropped. If a future revision changes any scientific field, that revision should re-enter the full paired-critic loop.

Likely Clean Result

A body HTML on experiment #365 following docs/clean-result-guidelines.md:

  • TL;DR (single paragraph in first person): "I ran a balanced 2^5 factorial across five marker-implantation factors on three source personas. System-prompt length and loss-mask scope were the two load-bearing knobs, both with Cohen's d > 0.4 on source-rate; persona framing had near-zero independent effect once length was controlled, confirming #340. Long answer-format prompts collapsed source-rate at the extreme, replicating #295. Off-policy data lost ~0.2 d of source-rate vs on-policy at matched length."
  • Primary plot: a single bar chart of the five main-effect Cohen's d's on source-rate with 95% bootstrap CIs, ordered largest-to-smallest, with plain-English axis labels ("system-prompt length", "loss masks marker only", etc.) and SVG <title> hover tooltips carrying the underlying mean and CI.
  • Experimental design dropdown: the 32-cell factor table, the 3-source stratification, the seed plan, the bootstrap scheme, and the kill-criterion list — collapsed by default.

Sections deliberately omitted per the clean-result guidelines: separate Background / Methodology h2s, standing caveats, references to the abandoned single-axis sweeps, and the additional per-source heatmaps (those live as linked figures, not in the body).

Approval Checklist

  • Goal matches the experiment record title and absorbs the open scope of #361 / #339 / #353 / #46.
  • Hypothesis is specific: five factors split into three classes with signed predictions for each.
  • Prediction is falsifiable: numeric Cohen's d thresholds with α=0.05 and a named bootstrap scheme.
  • Kill criterion has six concrete triggers, including the new bootstrap-silence detector that directly responds to the recovery-trigger failure mode.
  • Compute and Hardware estimates 4 × 1 × 18 h × $1.49 ≈ $107 compute + ~$2 storage = ~$110 total at A100 80GB SXM Secure Cloud rates; cost-overrun kill at $160. Multi-pod array is justified under clause (c) per-pod role isolation; consolidation deferred to a future ablation.
  • Artifacts enumerated per-pod and aggregator with /workspace/runs/365/... paths matching the script's directory contract.
  • Verification covers spec parity, the bootstrap-progress detector, Phase 0/1 kill gates, and the aggregator's required JSONs / clean-result HTML.
  • Risks explicitly cover the team-account vanishing failure that triggered this recovery and document the rationale for flipping account.prefer to personal.
  • Likely clean result follows docs/clean-result-guidelines.md (TL;DR → primary plot → design dropdown, first-person voice, no standing caveats).
  • runpod-spec matches the plan: 4 pods, A100 80GB Secure Cloud preferred, single-GPU per pod, account.prefer=personal with team retained in allowed, and per-pod dockerArgs identical to the persisted experiments.077ae4c7…pod_spec save for that one substitution-policy field.
[
  {
    "name": "marker-screen-365-pod0-pre-and-source-librarian",
    "gpuType": "A100",
    "gpuCount": 1,
    "volumeGb": 100,
    "containerDiskGb": 100,
    "cloudType": "SECURE",
    "estimatedMinutes": 1080,
    "env": {
      "SAGAN_EPS_BRANCH": "experiment-365",
      "SAGAN_EPS_COMMIT_SHA": "b1a24b4b04f92598e381fa3cd207a0fe5d24b9e7"
    },
    "dockerArgs": "bash -lc 'set -euo pipefail; cd /workspace/explore-persona-space && uv run python -m eps.experiments.marker_factor_screen --pod-index 0 --num-pods 4 --source-persona librarian --base-model Qwen/Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct --intent lora-7b --lora-r 32 --lora-alpha 64 --lr 1e-5 --epochs 3 --pos-per-source 200 --neg-per-source 400 --eval-personas 24 --eval-questions 20 --eval-completions 5 --primary-seed 42 --multi-seeds 137,256 --bootstrap-scheme clustered --bootstrap-cluster-sr question --bootstrap-cluster-lr persona --run-pre-screen --run-smoke --progress-url \"$SAGAN_PROGRESS_URL\" --progress-token \"$SAGAN_POD_PROGRESS_TOKEN\" --agent-run-id \"$SAGAN_AGENT_RUN_ID\" --experiment-id \"$SAGAN_EXPERIMENT_ID\" --run-index \"$SAGAN_RUN_INDEX\"'",
    "config": {
      "command": "Pod 0: Phase 0 base-model contamination pre-screen on 24x20x5 eval panel + Phase 1 8-cell res-III librarian smoke (kill gates only) + Phase 2 32-cell librarian slab at primary seed + Phase 3 multi-seed top-3 librarian cells (seeds 137, 256). Clustered bootstrap (question-clustered SR, persona-clustered LR).",
      "artifacts": [
        "/workspace/runs/365/pod0/pre_screen.json",
        "/workspace/runs/365/pod0/smoke.json",
        "/workspace/runs/365/pod0/librarian/metrics.json",
        "/workspace/runs/365/pod0/librarian/adapters/",
        "/workspace/runs/365/pod0/figures/"
      ]
    },
    "substitution_policy": {
      "gpuType": { "allowed": ["A100", "A100-SXM", "H100", "H200"], "min_vram_gb": 80 },
      "gpuCount": { "min": 1, "max": 1 },
      "cloudType": { "allowed": ["SECURE", "COMMUNITY"], "prefer": "SECURE" },
      "dataCenterId": { "allowed": "any" },
      "account": { "allowed": ["personal", "team"], "prefer": "personal" },
      "volumeGb": { "min": 100 },
      "containerDiskGb": { "min": 100 }
    },
    "consolidation": {
      "may_merge_pods": false,
      "merge_target_max_gpus_per_pod": 1
    }
  },
  {
    "name": "marker-screen-365-pod1-source-surgeon",
    "gpuType": "A100",
    "gpuCount": 1,
    "volumeGb": 100,
    "containerDiskGb": 100,
    "cloudType": "SECURE",
    "estimatedMinutes": 1080,
    "env": {
      "SAGAN_EPS_BRANCH": "experiment-365",
      "SAGAN_EPS_COMMIT_SHA": "b1a24b4b04f92598e381fa3cd207a0fe5d24b9e7"
    },
    "dockerArgs": "bash -lc 'set -euo pipefail; cd /workspace/explore-persona-space && uv run python -m eps.experiments.marker_factor_screen --pod-index 1 --num-pods 4 --source-persona surgeon --base-model Qwen/Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct --intent lora-7b --lora-r 32 --lora-alpha 64 --lr 1e-5 --epochs 3 --pos-per-source 200 --neg-per-source 400 --eval-personas 24 --eval-questions 20 --eval-completions 5 --primary-seed 42 --multi-seeds 137,256 --bootstrap-scheme clustered --bootstrap-cluster-sr question --bootstrap-cluster-lr persona --progress-url \"$SAGAN_PROGRESS_URL\" --progress-token \"$SAGAN_POD_PROGRESS_TOKEN\" --agent-run-id \"$SAGAN_AGENT_RUN_ID\" --experiment-id \"$SAGAN_EXPERIMENT_ID\" --run-index \"$SAGAN_RUN_INDEX\"'",
    "config": {
      "command": "Pod 1: Phase 2 32-cell surgeon slab at primary seed 42 + Phase 3 multi-seed top-3 surgeon cells (seeds 137, 256). Clustered bootstrap (question-clustered SR, persona-clustered LR).",
      "artifacts": [
        "/workspace/runs/365/pod1/surgeon/metrics.json",
        "/workspace/runs/365/pod1/surgeon/adapters/",
        "/workspace/runs/365/pod1/figures/"
      ]
    },
    "substitution_policy": {
      "gpuType": { "allowed": ["A100", "A100-SXM", "H100", "H200"], "min_vram_gb": 80 },
      "gpuCount": { "min": 1, "max": 1 },
      "cloudType": { "allowed": ["SECURE", "COMMUNITY"], "prefer": "SECURE" },
      "dataCenterId": { "allowed": "any" },
      "account": { "allowed": ["personal", "team"], "prefer": "personal" },
      "volumeGb": { "min": 100 },
      "containerDiskGb": { "min": 100 }
    },
    "consolidation": {
      "may_merge_pods": false,
      "merge_target_max_gpus_per_pod": 1
    }
  },
  {
    "name": "marker-screen-365-pod2-source-programmer",
    "gpuType": "A100",
    "gpuCount": 1,
    "volumeGb": 100,
    "containerDiskGb": 100,
    "cloudType": "SECURE",
    "estimatedMinutes": 1080,
    "env": {
      "SAGAN_EPS_BRANCH": "experiment-365",
      "SAGAN_EPS_COMMIT_SHA": "b1a24b4b04f92598e381fa3cd207a0fe5d24b9e7"
    },
    "dockerArgs": "bash -lc 'set -euo pipefail; cd /workspace/explore-persona-space && uv run python -m eps.experiments.marker_factor_screen --pod-index 2 --num-pods 4 --source-persona programmer --base-model Qwen/Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct --intent lora-7b --lora-r 32 --lora-alpha 64 --lr 1e-5 --epochs 3 --pos-per-source 200 --neg-per-source 400 --eval-personas 24 --eval-questions 20 --eval-completions 5 --primary-seed 42 --multi-seeds 137,256 --bootstrap-scheme clustered --bootstrap-cluster-sr question --bootstrap-cluster-lr persona --progress-url \"$SAGAN_PROGRESS_URL\" --progress-token \"$SAGAN_POD_PROGRESS_TOKEN\" --agent-run-id \"$SAGAN_AGENT_RUN_ID\" --experiment-id \"$SAGAN_EXPERIMENT_ID\" --run-index \"$SAGAN_RUN_INDEX\"'",
    "config": {
      "command": "Pod 2: Phase 2 32-cell programmer slab at primary seed 42 + Phase 3 multi-seed top-3 programmer cells (seeds 137, 256). Clustered bootstrap (question-clustered SR, persona-clustered LR).",
      "artifacts": [
        "/workspace/runs/365/pod2/programmer/metrics.json",
        "/workspace/runs/365/pod2/programmer/adapters/",
        "/workspace/runs/365/pod2/figures/"
      ]
    },
    "substitution_policy": {
      "gpuType": { "allowed": ["A100", "A100-SXM", "H100", "H200"], "min_vram_gb": 80 },
      "gpuCount": { "min": 1, "max": 1 },
      "cloudType": { "allowed": ["SECURE", "COMMUNITY"], "prefer": "SECURE" },
      "dataCenterId": { "allowed": "any" },
      "account": { "allowed": ["personal", "team"], "prefer": "personal" },
      "volumeGb": { "min": 100 },
      "containerDiskGb": { "min": 100 }
    },
    "consolidation": {
      "may_merge_pods": false,
      "merge_target_max_gpus_per_pod": 1
    }
  },
  {
    "name": "marker-screen-365-pod3-aggregator-and-overflow",
    "gpuType": "A100",
    "gpuCount": 1,
    "volumeGb": 100,
    "containerDiskGb": 100,
    "cloudType": "SECURE",
    "estimatedMinutes": 1080,
    "env": {
      "SAGAN_EPS_BRANCH": "experiment-365",
      "SAGAN_EPS_COMMIT_SHA": "b1a24b4b04f92598e381fa3cd207a0fe5d24b9e7"
    },
    "dockerArgs": "bash -lc 'set -euo pipefail; cd /workspace/explore-persona-space && uv run python -m eps.experiments.marker_factor_screen --pod-index 3 --num-pods 4 --role aggregator-and-overflow --base-model Qwen/Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct --intent lora-7b --lora-r 32 --lora-alpha 64 --lr 1e-5 --epochs 3 --eval-personas 24 --eval-questions 20 --eval-completions 5 --primary-seed 42 --multi-seeds 137,256 --bootstrap-scheme clustered --bootstrap-cluster-sr question --bootstrap-cluster-lr persona --build-figures --write-clean-result --label-f1xf2-preregistered --progress-url \"$SAGAN_PROGRESS_URL\" --progress-token \"$SAGAN_POD_PROGRESS_TOKEN\" --agent-run-id \"$SAGAN_AGENT_RUN_ID\" --experiment-id \"$SAGAN_EXPERIMENT_ID\" --run-index \"$SAGAN_RUN_INDEX\"'",
    "config": {
      "command": "Pod 3: Phase 4 aggregator. Waits up to 24h for pods 0/1/2 metrics.json files, then builds main_effects.json, interactions.json (with A x B pre-registered), the persona x cell heatmap, the factor-ranking bar chart, the A x B interaction plot, and the clean-result HTML attached to experiments.body.",
      "artifacts": [
        "/workspace/runs/365/pod3/main_effects.json",
        "/workspace/runs/365/pod3/interactions.json",
        "/workspace/runs/365/pod3/aggregate_metrics.json",
        "/workspace/runs/365/pod3/figures/persona_cell_heatmap.svg",
        "/workspace/runs/365/pod3/figures/factor_ranking.svg",
        "/workspace/runs/365/pod3/figures/AxB_interaction.svg",
        "/workspace/runs/365/pod3/clean_result.html"
      ]
    },
    "substitution_policy": {
      "gpuType": { "allowed": ["A100", "A100-SXM", "H100", "H200"], "min_vram_gb": 80 },
      "gpuCount": { "min": 1, "max": 1 },
      "cloudType": { "allowed": ["SECURE", "COMMUNITY"], "prefer": "SECURE" },
      "dataCenterId": { "allowed": "any" },
      "account": { "allowed": ["personal", "team"], "prefer": "personal" },
      "volumeGb": { "min": 100 },
      "containerDiskGb": { "min": 100 }
    },
    "consolidation": {
      "may_merge_pods": false,
      "merge_target_max_gpus_per_pod": 1
    }
  }
]

Recovery summary. Diagnosed the failure as the recurring team-account post-RUNNING vanishing (Risk 2 from the prior plan). Re-emitted the owner-approved 4-pod plan unchanged except for: (1) substitution_policy.account.prefer flipped from team to personal; (2) kill criterion #6 added as an explicit detector for the same failure mode under the new account; (3) Verification step 2 documents the 5-min bootstrap-progress check. The persisted experiments.077ae4c7…pod_spec already has personal in account.allowed, so this is a scope-preserving recovery, not a design change.

Events

9:23:11 AMstartedagent
kind=experiment
9:23:50 AMassistant_textagent
I need to diagnose what happened before deciding what to do. This is an auto-recovery for a third retry of pod dispatch on experiment #365 that's been failing. Let me check the actual state.
9:23:53 AMtool_calltools

tool=Bash

Bash
9:23:53 AMtool_resulttools
Traceback (most recent call last):
  File "<string>", line 1, in <module>
  File "/usr/lib/python3.10/json/__init__.py", line 293, in load
    return loads(fp.read(),
  File "/usr/lib/python3.10/json/__init__.py", line 346, in loads
    return _default_decoder.decode(s)
  File "/usr/lib/python3.10/json/decoder.py", line 337, in decode
    obj, end = self.raw_decode(s, idx=_w(s, 0).end())
  File "/usr/lib/python3.10/json/decoder.py", line 355, in raw_decode
    raise JSONDecodeError("Expecting value", s, err.value) from None
json.decoder.JSONDecodeError: Expecting value: line 1 column 1 (char 0)
9:23:57 AMtool_calltools

tool=Bash

Bash
9:23:57 AMtool_resulttools
HTTP 500
9:24:01 AMtool_calltools

tool=Bash

Bash
9:24:01 AMtool_resulttools
(Bash completed with no output)
9:24:05 AMtool_calltools

tool=Bash

Bash
9:24:05 AMtool_resulttools
0 /tmp/exp365.json
9:24:09 AMtool_calltools

tool=Bash

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9:24:09 AMtool_resulttools
> 
* TLSv1.2 (IN), TLS header, Supplemental data (23):
{ [5 bytes data]
* TLSv1.3 (IN), TLS handshake, Newsession Ticket (4):
{ [122 bytes data]
* TLSv1.2 (IN), TLS header, Supplemental data (23):
{ [5 bytes data]
* Connection state changed (MAX_CONCURRENT_STREAMS == 250)!
* TLSv1.2 (OUT), TLS header, Supplemental data (23):
} [5 bytes data]
* TLSv1.2 (IN), TLS header, Supplemental data (23):
{ [5 bytes data]
* TLSv1.2 (IN), TLS header, Supplemental data (23):
{ [5 bytes data]
* TLSv1.2 (IN), TLS header, Supplemental data (23):
{ [5 bytes data]
< HTTP/2 500 
< cache-control: public, max-age=0, must-revalidate
< date: Thu, 14 May 2026 09:24:09 GMT
< server: Vercel
< strict-transport-security: max-age=63072000
< x-matched-path: /api/experiments/[id]
< x-vercel-cache: BYPASS
< x-vercel-enable-rewrite-caching: 1
< x-vercel-id: sfo1::iad1::f4vbq-1778750649658-3990d2c3a042
< content-length: 0
< 
* TLSv1.2 (IN), TLS header, Supplemental data (23):
{ [5 bytes data]
* Connection #0 to host sagan.superkaiba.com left intact
9:24:15 AMtool_calltools

tool=Bash

Bash
9:24:15 AMtool_resulttools
HTTP 200 170526
9:24:19 AMtool_calltools

tool=Bash

Bash
9:24:19 AMtool_resulttools
status: None
runpodAccount: None
keys: ['experiment', 'events', 'approvalRequests']
plan section titles: []
9:24:24 AMtool_calltools

tool=Bash

Bash
9:24:24 AMtool_resulttools
status: blocked
number: 365
title: Factor screen for marker implantation + leakage (2^5: system-prompt length, answer-format length, persona-presence, on-p
runpodAccount: team
--- section: Blocker len 2744
9:24:31 AMtool_calltools

tool=Bash

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9:24:31 AMtool_resulttools
body length: 17653
runpod-spec idx: -1
9:24:34 AMtool_calltools

tool=Bash

Bash
9:24:34 AMtool_resulttools
perkaiba/explore-persona-space/issues/361)).** For each cell, compute a per-input "how much does the persona reshape the output distribution" scalar from the base model alone, BEFORE training:

1. For each training example `(system_prompt, question, answer + [ZLT])`, run base Qwen-7B-Instruct twice — once conditioned on the cell's system prompt, once on a null/generic system prompt — collecting next-token distributions `P_persona(·|context_t)` and `P_null(·|context_t)` at every position `t` in the answer.
2. Compute `D_t = KL(P_persona ‖ P_null)` per position (also try JS for symmetry).
3. Aggregate across positions: `mean_t D_t` and `Σ_t D_t` per example, then average across the training set per cell.

Then regress (source-rate, leakage-rate) on cell-level mean/total divergence, with source-persona as a fixed effect and A/B/C/D/E factors as covariates. The hypothesis: a single per-cell scalar derivable from the base model predicts implantation+leakage; factor main effects should attenuate after partialling it out. Generalizes the [#142](https://github.com/superkaiba/explore-persona-space/issues/142) "JS divergence at persona-pair level predicts leakage" result to the per-input level. Cost: ~5 min of base-model forward passes per cell, no additional training.

**Per-token D_t profile.** Plot `D_t` along the answer for B0×E0, B1×E0, B0×E1, and B1×E1 cells, per source persona. If `D_t` peaks at the `[ZLT]` token only in cells that implant well, the gradient-dilution story (per [#295](https://github.com/superkaiba/explore-persona-space/issues/295) / [#353](https://github.com/superkaiba/explore-persona-space/issues/353)) is visible.

## Parents / absorbs

This issue absorbs and archives:
- [#361](https://github.com/superkaiba/explore-persona-space/issues/361) — original "factor panel" stub (length-location + on-policy + divergence-metric, with length split into independent system-prompt and answer-format-length factors here and divergence folded in as a post-hoc analysis).
- [#339](https://github.com/superkaiba/explore-persona-space/issues/339) — persona-rich vs filler at fixed length (C factor here; #339 would extend to multi-source if C turns out load-bearing).
- [#353](https://github.com/superkaiba/explore-persona-space/issues/353) — marker-only-loss ablation on long-completion (E factor here generalizes to a main effect, with marker-only as the baseline).

Cross-refs (not archived): [#337](https://github.com/superkaiba/explore-persona-space/issues/337), [#295](https://github.com/superkaiba/explore-persona-space/issues/295), [#340](https://github.com/superkaiba/explore-persona-space/issues/340), [#181](https://github.com/superkaiba/explore-persona-space/issues/181), [#208](https://github.com/superkaiba/explore-persona-space/issues/208), [#232](https://github.com/superkaiba/explore-persona-space/issues/232), [#142](https://github.com/superkaiba/explore-persona-space/issues/142), [#46](https://github.com/superkaiba/explore-persona-space/issues/46).
9:24:39 AMtool_calltools

tool=Bash

Bash
9:24:39 AMtool_resulttools
event count: 50
2026-05-14T00:17:34.463Z | ? | 
2026-05-14T00:17:34.217Z | ? | 
2026-05-14T00:17:33.645Z | ? | 
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2026-05-14T00:17:15.530Z | ? | 
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2026-05-14T00:16:59.178Z | ? | 
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2026-05-14T00:16:57.212Z | ? | 
2026-05-14T00:16:50.902Z | ? | 
2026-05-14T00:16:50.066Z | ? | 
2026-05-14T00:16:41.470Z | ? | 
2026-05-14T00:16:41.037Z | ? | 
2026-05-14T00:16:40.638Z | ? | 
2026-05-14T00:16:40.388Z | ? | 
2026-05-14T00:16:40.223Z | ? | 
2026-05-14T00:16:39.582Z | ? | 
2026-05-14T00:16:32.776Z | ? |
9:24:43 AMtool_calltools

tool=Bash

Bash
9:24:43 AMtool_resulttools
{
  "id": "549e84e8-8e85-491c-8c0a-4ffedf3a747e",
  "entityKind": "experiment",
  "entityId": "077ae4c7-e816-4dd8-a150-ad8fe19cb795",
  "eventType": "note",
  "fromStatus": null,
  "toStatus": null,
  "actorKind": "runpod",
  "actorUserId": null,
  "note": "0% \u00b7 experiment exited with code 1 \u00b7 err: /usr/bin/python: Error while finding module specification for 'eps.experiments.marker_factor_screen' (ModuleNotFoundError: No module named 'eps')",
  "metadata": {
    "podId": "su12badt0e0s28",
    "status": null,
    "errorTail": "/usr/bin/python: Error while finding module specification for 'eps.experiments.marker_factor_screen' (ModuleNotFoundError: No module named 'eps')",
    "marker_type": "epm:progress",
    "progressPct": 0,
    "estimatedRemainingMinutes": null
  },
  "createdAt": "2026-05-14T00:16:32.776Z"
}
---
{
  "id": "961d06c1-5baa-43aa-9e0d-7be2de6ef194",
  "entityKind": "experiment",
  "entityId": "077ae4c7-e816-4dd8-a150-ad8fe19cb795",
  "eventType": "blocked",
  "fromStatus": "running",
  "toStatus": "blocked",
  "actorKind": "runner",
  "actorUserId": null,
  "note": "Cascaded from agent_run 15038ff7 failed",
  "metadata": {
    "reason": "failed",
    "agentRunId": "15038ff7-4cef-4b08-a897-2eee4f493062"
  },
  "createdAt": "2026-05-14T09:23:12.256Z"
}
9:24:47 AMtool_calltools

tool=Bash

Bash
9:24:47 AMtool_resulttools
2026-05-14T00:17:16.222Z | note | runpod | 5% · bootstrap complete on branch experiment-365
2026-05-14T00:17:16.521Z | note | runpod | 0% · experiment exited with code 1 · err: /usr/bin/python: Error while finding module specification for 'eps.experiments
2026-05-14T00:17:17.063Z | note | runpod | 0% · experiment exited with code 1 · err: /usr/bin/python: Error while finding module specification for 'eps.experiments
2026-05-14T00:17:26.231Z | note | runpod | 5% · bootstrap complete on branch experiment-365
2026-05-14T00:17:27.096Z | note | runpod | 0% · experiment exited with code 1 · err: /usr/bin/python: Error while finding module specification for 'eps.experiments
2026-05-14T00:17:32.303Z | note | runpod | 5% · bootstrap complete on branch experiment-365
2026-05-14T00:17:33.131Z | note | runpod | 0% · experiment exited with code 1 · err: /usr/bin/python: Error while finding module specification for 'eps.experiments
2026-05-14T00:17:33.645Z | note | runpod | 5% · bootstrap complete on branch experiment-365
2026-05-14T00:17:34.217Z | note | runpod | 5% · bootstrap complete on branch experiment-365
2026-05-14T00:17:34.463Z | note | runpod | 0% · experiment exited with code 1 · err: /usr/bin/python: Error while finding module specification for 'eps.experiments
2026-05-14T00:17:35.023Z | note | runpod | 0% · experiment exited with code 1 · err: /usr/bin/python: Error while finding module specification for 'eps.experiments
2026-05-14T00:17:44.300Z | note | runpod | 5% · bootstrap complete on branch experiment-365
2026-05-14T00:17:45.144Z | note | runpod | 0% · experiment exited with code 1 · err: /usr/bin/python: Error while finding module specification for 'eps.experiments
2026-05-14T00:17:49.779Z | note | runpod | 5% · bootstrap complete on branch experiment-365
2026-05-14T00:17:50.590Z | note | runpod | 0% · experiment exited with code 1 · err: /usr/bin/python: Error while finding module specification for 'eps.experiments
2026-05-14T00:17:51.555Z | note | runpod | 5% · bootstrap complete on branch experiment-365
2026-05-14T00:17:52.045Z | note | runpod | 5% · bootstrap complete on branch experiment-365
2026-05-14T00:17:52.371Z | note | runpod | 0% · experiment exited with code 1 · err: /usr/bin/python: Error while finding module specification for 'eps.experiments
2026-05-14T00:17:52.854Z | note | runpod | 0% · experiment exited with code 1 · err: /usr/bin/python: Error while finding module specification for 'eps.experiments
2026-05-14T00:18:02.420Z | note | runpod | 5% · bootstrap complete on branch experiment-365
2026-05-14T00:18:03.237Z | note | runpod | 0% · experiment exited with code 1 · err: /usr/bin/python: Error while finding module specification for 'eps.experiments
2026-05-14T00:18:09.144Z | note | runpod | 5% · bootstrap complete on branch experiment-365
2026-05-14T00:18:59.963Z | state_changed | runner | Claude produced clarifying questions; awaiting owner answers.
2026-05-14T08:29:21.214Z | note | system | Patched experiments.pod_spec: dockerArgs now run from /workspace/explore-persona-space (the bootstrap clone target) and 
2026-05-14T08:56:07.158Z | state_changed | runner | RunPod pod dispatched; waiting for runtime.
2026-05-14T08:56:08.179Z | blocked | runner | Partial RunPod dispatch: 2/4 pods came up. Survivors were stopped because the plan was designed around 4 partitions and 
2026-05-14T08:56:08.369Z | state_changed | runner | Automatic recovery queued after agent run aa1717d5 failed.
2026-05-14T09:06:01.549Z | state_changed | runner | RunPod pod dispatched; waiting for runtime.
2026-05-14T09:06:07.663Z | state_changed | runner | RunPod pod is running.
2026-05-14T09:23:12.256Z | blocked | runner | Cascaded from agent_run 15038ff7 failed
9:25:22 AMassistant_textagent
The picture is now clearer. The original `eps` ModuleNotFoundError was patched at 08:29:21. The next dispatch came up RUNNING across all 4 pods for ~15 minutes, then all four pods disappeared from the team account simultaneously at 09:21. Let me check whether pods are recoverable and what the current pod_spec actually looks like.
9:25:23 AMtool_calltools

tool=ToolSearch

ToolSearch
9:25:23 AMtool_resulttools
No matching deferred tools found
9:25:26 AMtool_calltools

tool=ToolSearch

ToolSearch
9:25:26 AMtool_resulttools









9:25:30 AMtool_calltools

tool=ToolSearch

ToolSearch
9:25:30 AMtool_resulttools
No matching deferred tools found
9:25:32 AMtool_calltools

tool=ToolSearch

ToolSearch
9:25:32 AMtool_resulttools
No matching deferred tools found
9:25:37 AMtool_calltools

tool=Bash

Bash
9:25:37 AMtool_resulttools
RUNPOD_API_KEY_PERSONAL=<set>
---
RUNPOD_API_KEY_PERSONAL=<set>
9:25:40 AMtool_calltools

tool=Bash

Bash
9:25:40 AMtool_resulttools
RUNPOD_API_KEY_PERSONAL=<set>
9:25:44 AMtool_calltools

tool=Bash

Bash
9:25:44 AMtool_resulttools
# Account-scoped credential. The owner only has a personal RunPod account;
# new agent_runs default to runpod_account=<set>
RUNPOD_API_KEY_PERSONAL=<set>
9:25:52 AMtool_calltools

tool=Bash

Bash
9:25:52 AMtool_resulttools
keys: ['id', 'number', 'legacyGhNumber', 'beliefId', 'projectId', 'title', 'body', 'hypothesis', 'planMd', 'planJson', 'podSpec', 'configYaml', 'status', 'kind', 'computeSize', 'priority', 'assigneeKind', 'tags', 'hasCleanResult', 'autoApprovePlan', 'parentExperimentId', 'runpodAccount', 'convertedToKind', 'convertedToId', 'createdAt', 'updatedAt', 'turn']
podSpec: [
  {
    "env": {
      "SAGAN_EPS_BRANCH": "experiment-365",
      "SAGAN_EPS_COMMIT_SHA": "b1a24b4b04f92598e381fa3cd207a0fe5d24b9e7"
    },
    "name": "marker-screen-365-pod0-pre-and-source-librarian",
    "config": {
      "command": "Run the 24x20x5 base-model contamination pre-screen, the 8-cell librarian smoke (kill-criterion gate, not used for factor pre-ranking), then the librarian (source, F4=off) and (source, F4=on) slabs of the 2^5 factorial, plus the multi-seed top-3 cells for librarian. Use question-clustered bootstrap for SR and persona-clustered for LR. 8 distinct (F1,F3,F2) on-policy generation regimes per source.",
      "artifacts": [
        "/workspace/runs/365/pod0/pre_screen.json",
        "/workspace/runs/365/pod0/smoke.json",
        "/workspace/runs/365/pod0/librarian/metrics.json",
        "/workspace/runs/365/pod0/librarian/adapters/",
        "/workspace/runs/365/pod0/figures/"
      ]
    },
    "dryRun": false,
    "gpuType": "H100",
    "gpuCount": 1,
    "volumeGb": 100,
    "cloudType": "SECURE",
    "dockerArgs": "bash -lc 'set -euo pipefail; cd /workspace/explore-persona-space && uv run python -m eps.experiments.marker_factor_screen --pod-index 0 --num-pods 4 --source-persona librarian --base-model Qwen/Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct --intent lora-7b --lora-r 32 --lora-alpha 64 --lr 1e-5 --epochs 3 --pos-per-source 200 --neg-per-source 400 --eval-personas 24 --eval-questions 20 --eval-completions 5 --primary-seed 42 --multi-seeds 137,256 --bootstrap-scheme clustered --bootstrap-cluster-sr question --bootstrap-cluster-lr persona --run-pre-screen --run-smoke --progress-url \"\" --progress-token \"\" --agent-run-id \"\" --experiment-id \"\" --run-index \"\"'",
    "containerDiskGb": 100,
    "estimatedMinutes": 1080
  },
  {
    "env": {
      "SAGAN_EPS_BRANCH": "experiment-365",
      "SAGAN_EPS_COMMIT_SHA": "b1a24b4b04f92598e381fa3cd207a0fe5d24b9e7"
    },
    "name": "marker-screen-365-pod1-source-surgeon",
    "config": {
      "command":
9:26:03 AMtool_calltools

tool=Bash

Bash
9:26:04 AMtool_resulttools
HTTP 200 43249
9:26:08 AMtool_calltools

tool=Bash

Bash
9:26:08 AMtool_resulttools
keys: ['run', 'events', 'pods', 'artifacts', 'canManageRun']
run keys: ['id', 'kind', 'provider', 'status', 'request', 'planMd', 'planJson', 'approvalRequired', 'approvedBy', 'approvedAt', 'scopeEntityKind', 'scopeEntityId', 'chatSessionId', 'branchName', 'vercelDeploymentUrl', 'runpodAccount', 'runpodPodId', 'runpodPodIds', 'runpodStatus', 'transcriptLogPath', 'changedFilesJson', 'lastError', 'startedAt', 'completedAt', 'createdAt', 'updatedAt']
9:26:13 AMtool_calltools

tool=Bash

Bash
9:26:13 AMtool_resulttools
status: blocked
runpodAccount: team
runpodStatus: running
runpodPodIds: ['vt4ui9cgqo675e', 'r5fzea64v3uu6r', 'xw2pi3f10sn29s', '6lsmxsy4iau0jj']
lastError: Pod r5fzea64v3uu6r not found in account=team
startedAt: None completedAt: None

pods:
 - vt4ui9cgqo675e ? | None | Pod vt4ui9cgqo675e not found in account=team
 - r5fzea64v3uu6r ? | None | Pod r5fzea64v3uu6r not found in account=team
 - xw2pi3f10sn29s ? | None | Pod xw2pi3f10sn29s not found in account=team
 - 6lsmxsy4iau0jj ? | None | Pod 6lsmxsy4iau0jj not found in account=team
9:26:19 AMtool_calltools

tool=Bash

Bash
9:26:20 AMtool_resulttools
event count: 79
2026-05-14T09:02:28.520Z | deploy_started |  | 
2026-05-14T09:06:01.533Z | deploy_pod_started |  | 
2026-05-14T09:06:01.552Z | deploy_pod_started |  | 
2026-05-14T09:06:01.566Z | deploy_pod_started |  | 
2026-05-14T09:06:01.576Z | deploy_pod_started |  | 
2026-05-14T09:06:01.590Z | deploy_completed |  | 
2026-05-14T09:06:07.655Z | runpod_status | 6lsmxsy4iau0jj | 
2026-05-14T09:06:08.054Z | runpod_status | vt4ui9cgqo675e | 
2026-05-14T09:06:08.323Z | runpod_status | r5fzea64v3uu6r | 
2026-05-14T09:06:08.605Z | runpod_status | xw2pi3f10sn29s | 
2026-05-14T09:07:09.056Z | runpod_status | 6lsmxsy4iau0jj | 
2026-05-14T09:07:09.349Z | runpod_status | vt4ui9cgqo675e | 
2026-05-14T09:07:09.627Z | runpod_status | r5fzea64v3uu6r | 
2026-05-14T09:07:09.990Z | runpod_status | xw2pi3f10sn29s | 
2026-05-14T09:08:08.488Z | runpod_status | 6lsmxsy4iau0jj | 
2026-05-14T09:08:08.811Z | runpod_status | vt4ui9cgqo675e | 
2026-05-14T09:08:09.111Z | runpod_status | r5fzea64v3uu6r | 
2026-05-14T09:08:09.389Z | runpod_status | xw2pi3f10sn29s | 
2026-05-14T09:09:08.475Z | runpod_status | 6lsmxsy4iau0jj | 
2026-05-14T09:09:08.749Z | runpod_status | vt4ui9cgqo675e | 
2026-05-14T09:09:09.090Z | runpod_status | r5fzea64v3uu6r | 
2026-05-14T09:09:09.344Z | runpod_status | xw2pi3f10sn29s | 
2026-05-14T09:10:08.412Z | runpod_status | 6lsmxsy4iau0jj | 
2026-05-14T09:10:08.716Z | runpod_status | vt4ui9cgqo675e | 
2026-05-14T09:10:08.979Z | runpod_status | r5fzea64v3uu6r | 
2026-05-14T09:10:09.281Z | runpod_status | xw2pi3f10sn29s | 
2026-05-14T09:11:07.464Z | runpod_status | xw2pi3f10sn29s | 
2026-05-14T09:11:08.770Z | runpod_status | 6lsmxsy4iau0jj | 
2026-05-14T09:11:09.070Z | runpod_status | vt4ui9cgqo675e | 
2026-05-14T09:11:09.354Z | runpod_status | r5fzea64v3uu6r | 
2026-05-14T09:12:07.448Z | runpod_status | xw2pi3f10sn29s | 
2026-05-14T09:12:08.874Z | runpod_status | 6lsmxsy4iau0jj | 
2026-05-14T09:12:09.154Z | runpod_status | vt4ui9cgqo675e | 
2026-05-14T09:12:09.414Z | runpod_status | r5fzea64v3uu6r | 
2026-05-14T09:13:08.104Z | runpod_status | xw2pi3f10sn29s | 
2026-05-14T09:13:09.425Z | runpod_status | 6lsmxsy4iau0jj | 
2026-05-14T09:13:09.748Z | runpod_status | vt4ui9cgqo675e | 
2026-05-14T09:13:10.132Z | runpod_status | r5fzea64v3uu6r | 
2026-05-14T09:14:09.078Z | runpod_status | xw2pi3f10sn29s | 
2026-05-14T09:14:09.664Z | runpod_status | 6lsmxsy4iau0jj | 
2026-05-14T09:14:09.949Z | runpod_status | vt4ui9cgqo675e | 
2026-05-14T09:14:10.228Z | runpod_status | r5fzea64v3uu6r | 
2026-05-14T09:15:08.933Z | runpod_status | xw2pi3f10sn29s | 
2026-05-14T09:15:10.204Z | runpod_status | 6lsmxsy4iau0jj | 
2026-05-14T09:15:10.530Z | runpod_status | vt4ui9cgqo675e | 
2026-05-14T09:15:10.899Z | runpod_status | r5fzea64v3uu6r | 
2026-05-14T09:16:08.942Z | runpod_status | xw2pi3f10sn29s | 
2026-05-14T09:16:10.176Z | runpod_status | 6lsmxsy4iau0jj | 
2026-05-14T09:16:10.489Z | runpod_status | vt4ui9cgqo675e | 
2026-05-14T09:16:10.777Z | runpod_status | r5fzea64v3uu6r | 
2026-05-14T09:17:09.675Z | runpod_status | xw2pi3f10sn29s | 
2026-05-14T09:17:10.321Z | runpod_status | 6lsmxsy4iau0jj | 
2026-05-14T09:17:11.124Z | runpod_status | vt4ui9cgqo675e | 
2026-05-14T09:17:11.416Z | runpod_status | r5fzea64v3uu6r | 
2026-05-14T09:18:09.643Z | runpod_status | xw2pi3f10sn29s | 
2026-05-14T09:18:10.234Z | runpod_status | 6lsmxsy4iau0jj | 
2026-05-14T09:18:10.485Z | runpod_status | vt4ui9cgqo675e | 
2026-05-14T09:18:10.781Z | runpod_status | r5fzea64v3uu6r | 
2026-05-14T09:19:09.418Z | runpod_status | xw2pi3f10sn29s | 
2026-05-14T09:19:10.176Z | runpod_status | 6lsmxsy4iau0jj | 
2026-05-14T09:19:10.471Z | runpod_status | vt4ui9cgqo675e | 
2026-05-14T09:19:10.723Z | runpod_status | r5fzea64v3uu6r | 
2026-05-14T09:20:09.745Z | runpod_status | xw2pi3f10sn29s | 
2026-05-14T09:20:10.317Z | runpod_status | 6lsmxsy4iau0jj | 
2026-05-14T09:20:10.675Z | runpod_status | vt4ui9cgqo675e | 
2026-05-14T09:20:10.991Z | runpod_status | r5fzea64v3uu6r | 
2026-05-14T09:21:0…
9:26:42 AMassistant_textagent
The full picture is clear. Let me record the diagnosis on the experiment as a comment/event so the owner sees it on the dashboard, then return the blocker.
9:26:46 AMtool_calltools

tool=Bash

Bash
9:26:46 AMtool_resulttools
HTTP 200 32657
---
9:26:49 AMtool_calltools

tool=Grep

Grep
9:26:49 AMtool_resulttools
No files found
9:27:30 AMassistant_textagent
## Blocker — stopping auto-recovery loop

**This is the third retry of a bypass-orchestrator-block direct-dispatch on experiment #365. Each retry has hit a different failure mode; auto-recovery cannot resolve the current one from this context.**

### What I checked

Fetched experiment 077ae4c7 and the failed agent_run 15038ff7. The previous Claude-Code rescue at 08:29 already patched `experiments.pod_spec` — the dockerArgs now correctly read `cd /workspace/explore-persona-space && uv run python -m eps.experiments.marker_factor_screen …`, so the original `ModuleNotFoundError: No module named 'eps'` is no longer in play. The patched spec is what was dispatched at 09:06.

### What actually happened on retry-2 (09:06 → 09:23)

Reconstructed from agent_run events:

| Time (UTC) | Event |
|---|---|
| 09:02:28 | deploy_started |
| 09:06:01 | deploy_pod_started × 4 → deploy_completed 4/4 |
| 09:06:07 → 09:20:11 | runpod_status: `RUNNING` for all 4 pods, polled every ~60s for ~14 minutes |
| 09:21:07 | runpod_retry: "Pod {id} not found in account=team" for all 4 pods |
| 09:22:08 | same `not found` retry, all 4 |
| 09:23:11 | auto_recovery_queued, runpod_blocked × 4 |

**The smoking gun: zero bootstrap or progress events from any pod across the entire 15-minute RUNNING window.** In the previously-broken 00:17 dispatch, each pod produced a `5% · bootstrap complete on branch experiment-365` note followed by an `experiment exited with code 1` note within ~1s. The retry-2 pods produced *nothing* — no bootstrap-start, no bootstrap-complete, no `5%`, no error tail. Then at 09:21 RunPod's team-account list stopped returning them, all four simultaneously.

Two failure shapes consistent with the evidence (I can't disambiguate from here):
1. **External termination of the team-account pods.** Synchronized disappearance of all 4 from `account=team` list at the same minute boundary is what you'd expect from a billing/quota event, team-API-key rotation, or manual cleanup. The orchestrator would correctly classify this as `not found`. This requires team-account credentials to diagnose (the VM `.env` only has `RUNPOD_API_KEY_PERSONAL`).
2. **Bootstrap wrapper hung silently.** The Sagan bootstrap pre-amble (`pod-bootstrap.ts`) is what posts `5% · bootstrap complete`. If it never posted, the wrapper hung before/during clone+`uv sync` and the container sat alive but inert for 15 minutes until something else cleaned the pods. The 09:02 → 09:06 gap between `deploy_started` and `deploy_pod_started` (4 minutes) is also unusually long — possibly correlated.

### Why I'm not re-dispatching

- This run was launched via `[direct-dispatch:bypass-orchestrator-block]`. The orchestrator's pod-provisioner and substitution-policy ladder were intentionally bypassed, which is why the 3rd retry has no new strategy to try — it can only re-emit the same 4-pod array spec that has now failed twice in two different ways.
- I'm in a planner context. The plan is already approved and the experiment is `status: blocked` (cascade from the failed run). Editing `experiments.pod_spec` again or re-dispatching pods isn't within this context's authority, and even if it were, neither failure shape above has a code-side fix I can make safely without team-account visibility.

### Exact next manual actions

1. **Check the team RunPod account directly** for events between 09:20 and 09:22 UTC on 2026-05-14: any quota-exceeded, billing-failure, account-suspension, or manual-termination event covering pods `vt4ui9cgqo675e`, `r5fzea64v3uu6r`, `xw2pi3f10sn29s`, `6lsmxsy4iau0jj`. Confirm the team API key currently in use on the runner VM still resolves to the right org (the partial 2/4 dispatch at 08:56 also hints at flaky team-side capacity or auth).
2. **Stop the auto-recovery loop on this run.** The pattern (status:blocked → auto_recovery_queued → re-dispatch → new failure mode) is just consuming GPU-hours without diagnostic progress. Mark agent_run `15038ff7` permanently blocked and skip the r…
9:27:30 AMsdk_resultagent
success
9:27:30 AMawaiting_clarificationsagent
Claude produced clarifying questions instead of a full plan.

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