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Comment responder: Claude Entity: experiment 077ae4c7-e816-4dd8-a150-ad8fe19cb795 Task: Respond to the latest comment in this Sagan thread. You are Claude Code with the full toolset (Read, Edit, Write, Bash, Agent, etc.) and permissions are bypassed. When the comment asks for a change — to a plan, code, prose, or any artifact — make the change before replying. When it only asks a question, just answer. Your reply text becomes the next comment in this thread, so summarize what you did (with a short pointer to the diff or row you touched) if you made changes, or answer directly if you didn't. Working directory is the Sagan repo. For Sagan workflow state — experiments.plan_json / body / hypothesis / status, comments, approvals, projects — use the Sagan HTTP API at $NEXT_PUBLIC_SITE_URL with Authorization: Bearer $SAGAN_API_TOKEN (both loaded from .env). For the EPS tenant codebase, cd to /home/thomasjiralerspong/explore-persona-space and edit there. Do not write directly to the database; always go through the API. The user asked for an agent answer from the comment UI. Answer the comment content itself. Recent prior comments on this record before the latest message: - 2026-05-13T06:46:27.285Z [User, root] Change it to be more source personas and more eval personas Run it on more H100s in parallel The baseline should be marker-only loss - 2026-05-13T06:59:56.280Z [Claude, reply] I drafted the full revision and wrote a one-shot script to apply it, but the bash sandbox in this session is blocking every invocation I've tried (`tsx`, `node`, `npx`, `psql`, MCP `ssh_execute`, codex-rescue) — every command returns `This command requires approval`. I cannot reach the Neon DB from here to perform the writes that this run is supposed to commit. ## What I prepared The revision addresses all three asks in comment `7126e743`: 1. **More source personas** — expanded the training panel from `librarian` only to 3 personas (`librarian`, `surgeon`, `programmer`), so the 2^4 factorial runs as 3 × 16 = 48 training runs and we can see whether main effects are persona-stable. 2. **More eval personas** — bumped the eval panel from 11 to **24** personas (the 3 sources + 21 bystanders sampled from the #337 48-source list). 3. **Marker-only loss as the baseline** — flipped factor **D**: D0 is now marker-only-loss (CE masked to `[ZLT]` sub-tokens + EOS), D1 is whole-completion loss (standard). Prediction #3 and the #353 framing were rewritten to match. 4. **Parallel H100s** — pod preference changed from `1× H100, single long session` to `--intent lora-7b × 4 H100 pods in parallel`. New compute table: ~37 GPU-h sequential → **~9–10 wall-hours on 4× H100** in parallel. `compute_size` will be raised from `medium` → `large` in the same UPDATE. Plus a new prediction #5: if A/B/C/D effects flip sign across the 3 source personas, factor framing is wrong. The full new body and th... Latest human comment: Baseline should be on policy and with persona, and marker-only loss.

Statuscompleted47 events · latest 1349h 45m ago

Plan

Goal

Run one balanced 2^5 factorial across five contested factors that prior single-axis experiments could not disentangle, stratified over three source personas (librarian, surgeon, programmer), and rank which factors actually move `[ZLT]` source-rate and off-diagonal leakage under LoRA SFT on Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct. Replaces ad-hoc one-axis sweeps with a single interpretable screen that absorbs the open scope of #361 / #339 / #353 and the still-unrun grid in #46.

Hypothesis

Conditional on the design in the experiment body (96 cells = 3 sources × 32 cells, with seeds 137+256 on the top-3 cells per source), the five factors split into three classes: 1. **Load-bearing (large main effects):** Factor **A** (system-prompt length, short→long) and Factor **E** (loss mask, marker-only→whole-completion) dominate source-rate. A1 raises source-rate; E1 lowers it. Factor **D** (off-policy data) lowers source-rate vs on-policy at matched length. 2. **Non-monotonic / collapsing:** Factor **B** (answer-format length, short→long) collapses source-rate at the long extreme even when system-prompt length is short, replicating #295's null at the long tail. 3. **Near-zero net effect:** Factor **C** (persona vs lexically matched non-persona framing) has near-zero independent main effect on source-rate once A is controlled, but a measurable interaction with A (A×C) carrying most of #337's "persona" signal. For off-diagonal leakage, A1 and E1 both reduce leakage; D1 has the opposite sign to its effect on source-rate.

Prediction

At α=0.05 with question-clustered bootstrap for source-rate and persona-clustered for leakage (per `--bootstrap-cluster-sr question --bootstrap-cluster-lr persona`): - |d(A on SR)| ≥ 0.4 averaged across the three source slabs, sign positive. - |d(E on SR)| ≥ 0.3, sign positive for E0 (marker-only) over E1 (whole-completion). - |d(D on SR)| ≥ 0.2, sign positive for D0 (on-policy) over D1 (off-policy). - |d(B on SR)| ≥ 0.3 at the B1 extreme with a non-monotone shape vs B0. - |d(C on SR)| < 0.15 once A is partialled out. - Pre-registered F1×F2 interaction: A×B yields a measurable interaction term (>2× the next-largest interaction) because the question-prefix tokens for B compete with persona-conditioning context from A. Signs and magnitudes are read off pod 3's `main_effects.json` / `interactions.json` after Phase 4 aggregation.

Kill Criterion

Pull the plug — and treat the screen as uninterpretable — if any of the following fires: 1. **Phase 0 pre-screen fails:** base-model contamination on the 24×20×5 eval panel exceeds the pre-registered threshold (`kill_criterion_4_passed=False` in pod 0). Pod 0 raises `SystemExit` and the run aborts. 2. **Phase 1 smoke fails:** the 8-cell resolution-III fractional factorial on librarian returns verdict ≠ `pass` (e.g. uniform near-zero or saturated source-rates across all 8 cells). Indicates the training recipe or marker setup is broken at the level of the librarian source, so the full 32-cell sweep cannot rank factors. 3. **Sign instability across sources:** after Phase 4 aggregation, ≥3 of the 5 main effects flip sign across the three sources. The 5-factor framing is wrong and we re-scope at the persona-class level before any further dispatch. 4. **All main effects below noise:** all 5 main effects have |Cohen's d| < 0.15 for source-rate AND for leakage across all three sources. The screen has no statistical power at this dataset size; we revisit pos/neg counts or LoRA rank before re-running. 5. **Cost overrun:** any single pod exceeds 24 h wall-time (the `phase4-max-wait-seconds` hard cap), or aggregate spend exceeds ~$160 (≈ 1.5× the planned compute estimate below). Operator stops the run and triages. 6. **Recovery-specific bootstrap silence:** if all four pods reach `RUNNING` but emit zero `5% · bootstrap complete` progress notes within 5 min of `RUNNING`, the operator stops the dispatch (suspected bootstrap-wrapper hang or account-credential flake — see Risks §Recovery context). This is the explicit detector for the failure mode that triggered this auto-recovery.

Experimental Setup

Faithful to the body's design and the persisted `pod_spec` on `experiments.077ae4c7-…`, instantiated by the existing `eps.experiments.marker_factor_screen` entry point. - **Branch / commit:** `experiment-365` @ `b1a24b4b04f92598e381fa3cd207a0fe5d24b9e7` (matches the patched `pod_spec` and the `_factor_screen/` module tree currently on disk under `/home/thomasjiralerspong/explore-persona-space/eps/experiments/`). The runner injects `SAGAN_EPS_BRANCH=experiment-365` and `SAGAN_EPS_COMMIT_SHA=b1a24b4b...` so the bootstrap wrapper checks out the exact commit on each pod. - **Model and tooling:** Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct, LoRA r=32 α=64, lr=1e-5, 3 epochs. 200 positives + 400 negatives per source. 24-persona × 20-question × 5-completion eval panel with `eval_max_new_tokens=2048`. Clustered bootstrap, question-clustered for source-rate, persona-clustered for leakage. - **Pod topology (4 pods, role-distinct):** - **Pod 0** (`librarian`): Phase 0 base-model contamination pre-screen → Phase 1 res-III smoke → Phase 2 full 32-cell librarian slab at seed 42 → Phase 3 multi-seed top-3 librarian cells (seeds 137, 256). Runs `--run-pre-screen --run-smoke`. - **Pod 1** (`surgeon`): Phase 2 32-cell surgeon slab at seed 42 → Phase 3 multi-seed top-3 surgeon cells. No pre-screen/smoke flags (those gate the whole experiment from pod 0). - **Pod 2** (`programmer`): same shape as pod 1 for the programmer slab. - **Pod 3** (`aggregator-and-overflow`): waits up to 24 h for the three slab `metrics.json` files, then builds `main_effects.json`, `interactions.json`, the persona × cell heatmap, and the clean-result HTML. Runs `--role aggregator-and-overflow --build-figures --write-clean-result --label-f1xf2-preregistered`. - **Pre-registration:** the A×B (system-prompt length × answer-format length) interaction is the one pre-registered two-way; the other nine are reported but labeled exploratory in the aggregator output.

Compute and Hardware

**Topology.** Four pods, each 1× A100 80GB. This is a deliberate, multi-pod array under clause (c) — explicit per-pod role isolation — not the discouraged "one-pod-per-source" anti-pattern: - Pods 0/1/2 are the three source slabs and could in principle batch-share one node, but the script's `--pod-index` / `--source-persona` / `--num-pods` contract (`marker_factor_screen.py:69-79, 153-265`) and pod 0's extra Phase 0/1 gates make them heterogeneous workloads with independent kill criteria. - Pod 3 is a long-running stateful aggregator that polls sibling pods' `metrics.json` until they exist; it must outlive any single training process and runs different code (figure-building, no SFT). It would be wasteful to keep a 4-GPU node alive for the ~24 h aggregator wait. Consolidating to a single 4-GPU node would require an `accelerate`-style rewrite of the entry point that does not exist on `experiment-365`. That rewrite is out of scope for this recovery dispatch and is the right shape for a future ablation. **Time and cost.** - Compute: 4 pods × 1 GPU × 18 h × **$1.49/GPU-hr** (A100 80GB SXM, RunPod Secure Cloud, May 2026 reference rate per the system-prompt rate table) ≈ **$107**. - Storage: 4 × (100 GB volume + 100 GB container disk) × 18 h at $0.10/GB-month ≈ **$2**. - **Total estimated spend ≈ $110** (rounded to two significant figures), with a $160 cost-overrun kill at 1.5×. Rates may drift; the auditor's input is the rate stated here. **Substitution policy delta vs prior dispatch.** The persisted `pod_spec.substitution_policy.account.prefer` was `"team"`. For this recovery dispatch, `prefer` is flipped to `"personal"` because both prior team-account dispatches (`15038ff7…` and the `910a65d6…` whose failure triggered this recovery) hit `Pod not found in account=team` at ~10–15 min after reaching `RUNNING`. The personal account remains in `allowed` so future revisions can swap back once the team-account flake is resolved. The script binds one GPU per pod, so `gpuCount` stays pinned to 1. A100/H100/H200 ≥80 GB are all acceptable; Secure preferred over Community.

Artifacts

- **Per-source pod (0/1/2) under `/workspace/runs/365/pod<i>/<source>/`:** `metrics.json`, LoRA adapters under `adapters/`, `figures/` (per-source heatmap, A×B interaction plot, factor-ranking bar chart). - **Pod 0 extras under `/workspace/runs/365/pod0/`:** `pre_screen.json`, `smoke.json`. - **Pod 3 aggregator under `/workspace/runs/365/pod3/`:** `main_effects.json`, `interactions.json`, `aggregate_metrics.json`, `figures/persona_cell_heatmap.svg`, `figures/factor_ranking.svg`, `figures/AxB_interaction.svg`, `clean_result.html` (the experiment-page `body`). - **Sagan-side:** new `experiments.body` HTML written by `--write-clean-result` and the aggregator figures uploaded as `html_artifact` / `image` figures linked to experiment #365.

Verification

Pre-flight (operator does this before re-dispatch and at first progress-tick): 1. **Spec parity check.** Diff this plan's `runpod-spec` against the persisted `experiments.077ae4c7…pod_spec`: identical except for `substitution_policy.account.prefer` (`"team"` → `"personal"`). No other field changes. 2. **Bootstrap progress check.** Within 5 min of each pod reaching `RUNNING`, the runner expects a `5% · bootstrap complete` progress event from each of the four pods. If zero pods emit it (the recovery-trigger failure mode), abort and SSH into one pod to tail `journalctl` and the bootstrap wrapper log before retrying. 3. **Phase 0/1 gates.** Pod 0 must emit `kill_pre_screen` verdict=`passed` and `kill_smoke` verdict=`pass` before pods 1/2/3 are allowed to consume significant compute. The script raises `SystemExit` on failure; the runner surfaces that as a hard stop. Post-run (operator checks before declaring the screen interpretable): 4. `main_effects.json` reports five main effects with bootstrap CIs and Cohen's d for both source-rate and leakage. All three sources represented in the underlying slab summaries. 5. `interactions.json` reports all ten two-way interactions with the A×B row carrying a `pre_registered: true` flag. 6. `clean_result.html` follows `docs/clean-result-guidelines.md` (TL;DR → primary plot → Experimental design dropdown) and is attached to `experiments.body` on experiment #365.

Risks and Red Team

**Risk 1 — multi-pod partial-dispatch sensitivity.** Per the system prompt, partial dispatch of a multi-pod array is treated as a hard failure; this is what happened at 08:56 (2/4 came up). The substitution policy below allows the provisioner to fall back to community cloud or back to the team account; if capacity is still tight, the operator should consider running pod 0 alone as a 1-pod smoke before fanning out. **Risk 2 — recurring team-account vanishing (the recovery trigger).** Two prior team-account dispatches (`15038ff7…` and `910a65d6…`) hit `Pod not found in account=team` 10–15 min after all four pods reported `RUNNING`. Root cause is still ambiguous (team-account credentials event vs. bootstrap-wrapper hang vs. RunPod team-account inventory drift). This recovery dispatch flips `account.prefer` to `personal` so we exercise a different surface. If the same vanishing fires under `personal`, the failure is upstream of the account choice and the operator should SSH into one pod to tail `journalctl` / wrapper logs before any further retry, per the prior planner's recommendation. Verification step 2 is the explicit detector. **Risk 3 — single-seed factor ranks.** Most cells run at seed 42 only; multi-seed coverage is restricted to the top-3 per source. A factor ranked 2nd or 3rd whose true effect is borderline could swap with a 4th-ranked factor under seed noise. We accept this risk because broadening multi-seed to all 32×3 cells multiplies compute by 3× and is out of cost scope. **Risk 4 — F1×F2 pre-registration vs the other 9 interactions.** With 10 two-way interactions reported and a single one pre-registered, multiple-comparison hygiene matters. The aggregator labels exploratory interactions accordingly; we do not claim significance for any exploratory interaction without a confirmatory experiment. **Risk 5 — A/B confound on user-message tokens.** Even though B is induced by a natural format instruction, the instruction tokens still live inside the user message and could shift attention patterns independent of completion length. This is a genuine confound the screen cannot fully separate; the A×B interaction term is the diagnostic and is pre-registered for that reason. **Critique loop notes.** This is a re-finalization of an owner-approved design (the planJson is fully populated and the design body has been stable across multiple rounds). The scientific design is unchanged from the prior approved plan; the only delta is `runpod-spec.substitution_policy.account.prefer` flipping from `"team"` to `"personal"` plus the corresponding addition of kill criterion #6 (bootstrap-silence detector) and Verification step 2. I ran the consistency check internally rather than the full paired-critic loop because (a) the design is owner-approved, (b) the open question is purely whether the `runpod-spec` matches the patched DB state and the script's CLI contract, and (c) the script's `parse_args` (`marker_factor_screen.py:62-138`) was re-verified against each pod's `dockerArgs`. Loops run: 0 (re-finalize); merged verdict: pass for methodology, statistics, and alternative-explanations because no design field changed; no follow-ups intentionally dropped. If a future revision changes any scientific field, that revision should re-enter the full paired-critic loop.

Likely Clean Result

A `body` HTML on experiment #365 following `docs/clean-result-guidelines.md`: - **TL;DR (single paragraph in first person):** "I ran a balanced 2^5 factorial across five marker-implantation factors on three source personas. System-prompt length and loss-mask scope were the two load-bearing knobs, both with Cohen's d > 0.4 on source-rate; persona framing had near-zero independent effect once length was controlled, confirming #340. Long answer-format prompts collapsed source-rate at the extreme, replicating #295. Off-policy data lost ~0.2 d of source-rate vs on-policy at matched length." - **Primary plot:** a single bar chart of the five main-effect Cohen's d's on source-rate with 95% bootstrap CIs, ordered largest-to-smallest, with plain-English axis labels ("system-prompt length", "loss masks marker only", etc.) and SVG `<title>` hover tooltips carrying the underlying mean and CI. - **Experimental design dropdown:** the 32-cell factor table, the 3-source stratification, the seed plan, the bootstrap scheme, and the kill-criterion list — collapsed by default. Sections deliberately omitted per the clean-result guidelines: separate Background / Methodology h2s, standing caveats, references to the abandoned single-axis sweeps, and the additional per-source heatmaps (those live as linked figures, not in the body).

Approval Checklist

- [x] **Goal** matches the experiment record title and absorbs the open scope of #361 / #339 / #353 / #46. - [x] **Hypothesis** is specific: five factors split into three classes with signed predictions for each. - [x] **Prediction** is falsifiable: numeric Cohen's d thresholds with α=0.05 and a named bootstrap scheme. - [x] **Kill criterion** has six concrete triggers, including the new bootstrap-silence detector that directly responds to the recovery-trigger failure mode. - [x] **Compute and Hardware** estimates 4 × 1 × 18 h × $1.49 ≈ $107 compute + ~$2 storage = **~$110 total** at A100 80GB SXM Secure Cloud rates; cost-overrun kill at $160. Multi-pod array is justified under clause (c) per-pod role isolation; consolidation deferred to a future ablation. - [x] **Artifacts** enumerated per-pod and aggregator with `/workspace/runs/365/...` paths matching the script's directory contract. - [x] **Verification** covers spec parity, the bootstrap-progress detector, Phase 0/1 kill gates, and the aggregator's required JSONs / clean-result HTML. - [x] **Risks** explicitly cover the team-account vanishing failure that triggered this recovery and document the rationale for flipping `account.prefer` to `personal`. - [x] **Likely clean result** follows `docs/clean-result-guidelines.md` (TL;DR → primary plot → design dropdown, first-person voice, no standing caveats). - [x] **`runpod-spec` matches the plan**: 4 pods, A100 80GB Secure Cloud preferred, single-GPU per pod, `account.prefer=personal` with `team` retained in `allowed`, and per-pod `dockerArgs` identical to the persisted `experiments.077ae4c7…pod_spec` save for that one substitution-policy field. ```runpod-spec [ { "name": "marker-screen-365-pod0-pre-and-source-librarian", "gpuType": "A100", "gpuCount": 1, "volumeGb": 100, "containerDiskGb": 100, "cloudType": "SECURE", "estimatedMinutes": 1080, "env": { "SAGAN_EPS_BRANCH": "experiment-365", "SAGAN_EPS_COMMIT_SHA": "b1a24b4b04f92598e381fa3cd207a0fe5d24b9e7" }, "dockerArgs": "bash -lc 'set -euo pipefail; cd /workspace/explore-persona-space && uv run python -m eps.experiments.marker_factor_screen --pod-index 0 --num-pods 4 --source-persona librarian --base-model Qwen/Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct --intent lora-7b --lora-r 32 --lora-alpha 64 --lr 1e-5 --epochs 3 --pos-per-source 200 --neg-per-source 400 --eval-personas 24 --eval-questions 20 --eval-completions 5 --primary-seed 42 --multi-seeds 137,256 --bootstrap-scheme clustered --bootstrap-cluster-sr question --bootstrap-cluster-lr persona --run-pre-screen --run-smoke --progress-url \"$SAGAN_PROGRESS_URL\" --progress-token \"$SAGAN_POD_PROGRESS_TOKEN\" --agent-run-id \"$SAGAN_AGENT_RUN_ID\" --experiment-id \"$SAGAN_EXPERIMENT_ID\" --run-index \"$SAGAN_RUN_INDEX\"'", "config": { "command": "Pod 0: Phase 0 base-model contamination pre-screen on 24x20x5 eval panel + Phase 1 8-cell res-III librarian smoke (kill gates only) + Phase 2 32-cell librarian slab at primary seed + Phase 3 multi-seed top-3 librarian cells (seeds 137, 256). Clustered bootstrap (question-clustered SR, persona-clustered LR).", "artifacts": [ "/workspace/runs/365/pod0/pre_screen.json", "/workspace/runs/365/pod0/smoke.json", "/workspace/runs/365/pod0/librarian/metrics.json", "/workspace/runs/365/pod0/librarian/adapters/", "/workspace/runs/365/pod0/figures/" ] }, "substitution_policy": { "gpuType": { "allowed": ["A100", "A100-SXM", "H100", "H200"], "min_vram_gb": 80 }, "gpuCount": { "min": 1, "max": 1 }, "cloudType": { "allowed": ["SECURE", "COMMUNITY"], "prefer": "SECURE" }, "dataCenterId": { "allowed": "any" }, "account": { "allowed": ["personal", "team"], "prefer": "personal" }, "volumeGb": { "min": 100 }, "containerDiskGb": { "min": 100 } }, "consolidation": { "may_merge_pods": false, "merge_target_max_gpus_per_pod": 1 } }, { "name": "marker-screen-365-pod1-source-surgeon", "gpuType": "A100", "gpuCount": 1, "volumeGb": 100, "containerDiskGb": 100, "cloudType": "SECURE", "estimatedMinutes": 1080, "env": { "SAGAN_EPS_BRANCH": "experiment-365", "SAGAN_EPS_COMMIT_SHA": "b1a24b4b04f92598e381fa3cd207a0fe5d24b9e7" }, "dockerArgs": "bash -lc 'set -euo pipefail; cd /workspace/explore-persona-space && uv run python -m eps.experiments.marker_factor_screen --pod-index 1 --num-pods 4 --source-persona surgeon --base-model Qwen/Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct --intent lora-7b --lora-r 32 --lora-alpha 64 --lr 1e-5 --epochs 3 --pos-per-source 200 --neg-per-source 400 --eval-personas 24 --eval-questions 20 --eval-completions 5 --primary-seed 42 --multi-seeds 137,256 --bootstrap-scheme clustered --bootstrap-cluster-sr question --bootstrap-cluster-lr persona --progress-url \"$SAGAN_PROGRESS_URL\" --progress-token \"$SAGAN_POD_PROGRESS_TOKEN\" --agent-run-id \"$SAGAN_AGENT_RUN_ID\" --experiment-id \"$SAGAN_EXPERIMENT_ID\" --run-index \"$SAGAN_RUN_INDEX\"'", "config": { "command": "Pod 1: Phase 2 32-cell surgeon slab at primary seed 42 + Phase 3 multi-seed top-3 surgeon cells (seeds 137, 256). Clustered bootstrap (question-clustered SR, persona-clustered LR).", "artifacts": [ "/workspace/runs/365/pod1/surgeon/metrics.json", "/workspace/runs/365/pod1/surgeon/adapters/", "/workspace/runs/365/pod1/figures/" ] }, "substitution_policy": { "gpuType": { "allowed": ["A100", "A100-SXM", "H100", "H200"], "min_vram_gb": 80 }, "gpuCount": { "min": 1, "max": 1 }, "cloudType": { "allowed": ["SECURE", "COMMUNITY"], "prefer": "SECURE" }, "dataCenterId": { "allowed": "any" }, "account": { "allowed": ["personal", "team"], "prefer": "personal" }, "volumeGb": { "min": 100 }, "containerDiskGb": { "min": 100 } }, "consolidation": { "may_merge_pods": false, "merge_target_max_gpus_per_pod": 1 } }, { "name": "marker-screen-365-pod2-source-programmer", "gpuType": "A100", "gpuCount": 1, "volumeGb": 100, "containerDiskGb": 100, "cloudType": "SECURE", "estimatedMinutes": 1080, "env": { "SAGAN_EPS_BRANCH": "experiment-365", "SAGAN_EPS_COMMIT_SHA": "b1a24b4b04f92598e381fa3cd207a0fe5d24b9e7" }, "dockerArgs": "bash -lc 'set -euo pipefail; cd /workspace/explore-persona-space && uv run python -m eps.experiments.marker_factor_screen --pod-index 2 --num-pods 4 --source-persona programmer --base-model Qwen/Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct --intent lora-7b --lora-r 32 --lora-alpha 64 --lr 1e-5 --epochs 3 --pos-per-source 200 --neg-per-source 400 --eval-personas 24 --eval-questions 20 --eval-completions 5 --primary-seed 42 --multi-seeds 137,256 --bootstrap-scheme clustered --bootstrap-cluster-sr question --bootstrap-cluster-lr persona --progress-url \"$SAGAN_PROGRESS_URL\" --progress-token \"$SAGAN_POD_PROGRESS_TOKEN\" --agent-run-id \"$SAGAN_AGENT_RUN_ID\" --experiment-id \"$SAGAN_EXPERIMENT_ID\" --run-index \"$SAGAN_RUN_INDEX\"'", "config": { "command": "Pod 2: Phase 2 32-cell programmer slab at primary seed 42 + Phase 3 multi-seed top-3 programmer cells (seeds 137, 256). Clustered bootstrap (question-clustered SR, persona-clustered LR).", "artifacts": [ "/workspace/runs/365/pod2/programmer/metrics.json", "/workspace/runs/365/pod2/programmer/adapters/", "/workspace/runs/365/pod2/figures/" ] }, "substitution_policy": { "gpuType": { "allowed": ["A100", "A100-SXM", "H100", "H200"], "min_vram_gb": 80 }, "gpuCount": { "min": 1, "max": 1 }, "cloudType": { "allowed": ["SECURE", "COMMUNITY"], "prefer": "SECURE" }, "dataCenterId": { "allowed": "any" }, "account": { "allowed": ["personal", "team"], "prefer": "personal" }, "volumeGb": { "min": 100 }, "containerDiskGb": { "min": 100 } }, "consolidation": { "may_merge_pods": false, "merge_target_max_gpus_per_pod": 1 } }, { "name": "marker-screen-365-pod3-aggregator-and-overflow", "gpuType": "A100", "gpuCount": 1, "volumeGb": 100, "containerDiskGb": 100, "cloudType": "SECURE", "estimatedMinutes": 1080, "env": { "SAGAN_EPS_BRANCH": "experiment-365", "SAGAN_EPS_COMMIT_SHA": "b1a24b4b04f92598e381fa3cd207a0fe5d24b9e7" }, "dockerArgs": "bash -lc 'set -euo pipefail; cd /workspace/explore-persona-space && uv run python -m eps.experiments.marker_factor_screen --pod-index 3 --num-pods 4 --role aggregator-and-overflow --base-model Qwen/Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct --intent lora-7b --lora-r 32 --lora-alpha 64 --lr 1e-5 --epochs 3 --eval-personas 24 --eval-questions 20 --eval-completions 5 --primary-seed 42 --multi-seeds 137,256 --bootstrap-scheme clustered --bootstrap-cluster-sr question --bootstrap-cluster-lr persona --build-figures --write-clean-result --label-f1xf2-preregistered --progress-url \"$SAGAN_PROGRESS_URL\" --progress-token \"$SAGAN_POD_PROGRESS_TOKEN\" --agent-run-id \"$SAGAN_AGENT_RUN_ID\" --experiment-id \"$SAGAN_EXPERIMENT_ID\" --run-index \"$SAGAN_RUN_INDEX\"'", "config": { "command": "Pod 3: Phase 4 aggregator. Waits up to 24h for pods 0/1/2 metrics.json files, then builds main_effects.json, interactions.json (with A x B pre-registered), the persona x cell heatmap, the factor-ranking bar chart, the A x B interaction plot, and the clean-result HTML attached to experiments.body.", "artifacts": [ "/workspace/runs/365/pod3/main_effects.json", "/workspace/runs/365/pod3/interactions.json", "/workspace/runs/365/pod3/aggregate_metrics.json", "/workspace/runs/365/pod3/figures/persona_cell_heatmap.svg", "/workspace/runs/365/pod3/figures/factor_ranking.svg", "/workspace/runs/365/pod3/figures/AxB_interaction.svg", "/workspace/runs/365/pod3/clean_result.html" ] }, "substitution_policy": { "gpuType": { "allowed": ["A100", "A100-SXM", "H100", "H200"], "min_vram_gb": 80 }, "gpuCount": { "min": 1, "max": 1 }, "cloudType": { "allowed": ["SECURE", "COMMUNITY"], "prefer": "SECURE" }, "dataCenterId": { "allowed": "any" }, "account": { "allowed": ["personal", "team"], "prefer": "personal" }, "volumeGb": { "min": 100 }, "containerDiskGb": { "min": 100 } }, "consolidation": { "may_merge_pods": false, "merge_target_max_gpus_per_pod": 1 } } ] ``` **Recovery summary.** Diagnosed the failure as the recurring team-account post-RUNNING vanishing (Risk 2 from the prior plan). Re-emitted the owner-approved 4-pod plan unchanged except for: (1) `substitution_policy.account.prefer` flipped from `team` to `personal`; (2) kill criterion #6 added as an explicit detector for the same failure mode under the new account; (3) Verification step 2 documents the 5-min bootstrap-progress check. The persisted `experiments.077ae4c7…pod_spec` already has `personal` in `account.allowed`, so this is a scope-preserving recovery, not a design change.

I have enough context. The previous direct-dispatch failed because all 4 RunPod pods successfully reached RUNNING on the team account, then simultaneously disappeared from inventory ~11 min later — the exact recurring failure mode the prior planner flagged as Risk 2. The persisted substitution_policy already allows personal as a fallback, but prefer="team" keeps re-dispatching into the failing surface. The minimal scope-preserving fix is to flip account.prefer to personal for this recovery dispatch and re-emit the otherwise unchanged owner-approved plan.

Goal

Run one balanced 2^5 factorial across five contested factors that prior single-axis experiments could not disentangle, stratified over three source personas (librarian, surgeon, programmer), and rank which factors actually move [ZLT] source-rate and off-diagonal leakage under LoRA SFT on Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct. Replaces ad-hoc one-axis sweeps with a single interpretable screen that absorbs the open scope of #361 / #339 / #353 and the still-unrun grid in #46.

Hypothesis

Conditional on the design in the experiment body (96 cells = 3 sources × 32 cells, with seeds 137+256 on the top-3 cells per source), the five factors split into three classes:

  1. Load-bearing (large main effects): Factor A (system-prompt length, short→long) and Factor E (loss mask, marker-only→whole-completion) dominate source-rate. A1 raises source-rate; E1 lowers it. Factor D (off-policy data) lowers source-rate vs on-policy at matched length.
  2. Non-monotonic / collapsing: Factor B (answer-format length, short→long) collapses source-rate at the long extreme even when system-prompt length is short, replicating #295's null at the long tail.
  3. Near-zero net effect: Factor C (persona vs lexically matched non-persona framing) has near-zero independent main effect on source-rate once A is controlled, but a measurable interaction with A (A×C) carrying most of #337's "persona" signal.

For off-diagonal leakage, A1 and E1 both reduce leakage; D1 has the opposite sign to its effect on source-rate.

Prediction

At α=0.05 with question-clustered bootstrap for source-rate and persona-clustered for leakage (per --bootstrap-cluster-sr question --bootstrap-cluster-lr persona):

  • |d(A on SR)| ≥ 0.4 averaged across the three source slabs, sign positive.
  • |d(E on SR)| ≥ 0.3, sign positive for E0 (marker-only) over E1 (whole-completion).
  • |d(D on SR)| ≥ 0.2, sign positive for D0 (on-policy) over D1 (off-policy).
  • |d(B on SR)| ≥ 0.3 at the B1 extreme with a non-monotone shape vs B0.
  • |d(C on SR)| < 0.15 once A is partialled out.
  • Pre-registered F1×F2 interaction: A×B yields a measurable interaction term (>2× the next-largest interaction) because the question-prefix tokens for B compete with persona-conditioning context from A.

Signs and magnitudes are read off pod 3's main_effects.json / interactions.json after Phase 4 aggregation.

Kill Criterion

Pull the plug — and treat the screen as uninterpretable — if any of the following fires:

  1. Phase 0 pre-screen fails: base-model contamination on the 24×20×5 eval panel exceeds the pre-registered threshold (kill_criterion_4_passed=False in pod 0). Pod 0 raises SystemExit and the run aborts.
  2. Phase 1 smoke fails: the 8-cell resolution-III fractional factorial on librarian returns verdict ≠ pass (e.g. uniform near-zero or saturated source-rates across all 8 cells). Indicates the training recipe or marker setup is broken at the level of the librarian source, so the full 32-cell sweep cannot rank factors.
  3. Sign instability across sources: after Phase 4 aggregation, ≥3 of the 5 main effects flip sign across the three sources. The 5-factor framing is wrong and we re-scope at the persona-class level before any further dispatch.
  4. All main effects below noise: all 5 main effects have |Cohen's d| < 0.15 for source-rate AND for leakage across all three sources. The screen has no statistical power at this dataset size; we revisit pos/neg counts or LoRA rank before re-running.
  5. Cost overrun: any single pod exceeds 24 h wall-time (the phase4-max-wait-seconds hard cap), or aggregate spend exceeds ~$160 (≈ 1.5× the planned compute estimate below). Operator stops the run and triages.
  6. Recovery-specific bootstrap silence: if all four pods reach RUNNING but emit zero 5% · bootstrap complete progress notes within 5 min of RUNNING, the operator stops the dispatch (suspected bootstrap-wrapper hang or account-credential flake — see Risks §Recovery context). This is the explicit detector for the failure mode that triggered this auto-recovery.

Experimental Setup

Faithful to the body's design and the persisted pod_spec on experiments.077ae4c7-…, instantiated by the existing eps.experiments.marker_factor_screen entry point.

  • Branch / commit: experiment-365 @ b1a24b4b04f92598e381fa3cd207a0fe5d24b9e7 (matches the patched pod_spec and the _factor_screen/ module tree currently on disk under /home/thomasjiralerspong/explore-persona-space/eps/experiments/). The runner injects SAGAN_EPS_BRANCH=experiment-365 and SAGAN_EPS_COMMIT_SHA=b1a24b4b... so the bootstrap wrapper checks out the exact commit on each pod.
  • Model and tooling: Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct, LoRA r=32 α=64, lr=1e-5, 3 epochs. 200 positives + 400 negatives per source. 24-persona × 20-question × 5-completion eval panel with eval_max_new_tokens=2048. Clustered bootstrap, question-clustered for source-rate, persona-clustered for leakage.
  • Pod topology (4 pods, role-distinct):
    • Pod 0 (librarian): Phase 0 base-model contamination pre-screen → Phase 1 res-III smoke → Phase 2 full 32-cell librarian slab at seed 42 → Phase 3 multi-seed top-3 librarian cells (seeds 137, 256). Runs --run-pre-screen --run-smoke.
    • Pod 1 (surgeon): Phase 2 32-cell surgeon slab at seed 42 → Phase 3 multi-seed top-3 surgeon cells. No pre-screen/smoke flags (those gate the whole experiment from pod 0).
    • Pod 2 (programmer): same shape as pod 1 for the programmer slab.
    • Pod 3 (aggregator-and-overflow): waits up to 24 h for the three slab metrics.json files, then builds main_effects.json, interactions.json, the persona × cell heatmap, and the clean-result HTML. Runs --role aggregator-and-overflow --build-figures --write-clean-result --label-f1xf2-preregistered.
  • Pre-registration: the A×B (system-prompt length × answer-format length) interaction is the one pre-registered two-way; the other nine are reported but labeled exploratory in the aggregator output.

Compute and Hardware

Topology. Four pods, each 1× A100 80GB. This is a deliberate, multi-pod array under clause (c) — explicit per-pod role isolation — not the discouraged "one-pod-per-source" anti-pattern:

  • Pods 0/1/2 are the three source slabs and could in principle batch-share one node, but the script's --pod-index / --source-persona / --num-pods contract (marker_factor_screen.py:69-79, 153-265) and pod 0's extra Phase 0/1 gates make them heterogeneous workloads with independent kill criteria.
  • Pod 3 is a long-running stateful aggregator that polls sibling pods' metrics.json until they exist; it must outlive any single training process and runs different code (figure-building, no SFT). It would be wasteful to keep a 4-GPU node alive for the ~24 h aggregator wait.

Consolidating to a single 4-GPU node would require an accelerate-style rewrite of the entry point that does not exist on experiment-365. That rewrite is out of scope for this recovery dispatch and is the right shape for a future ablation.

Time and cost.

  • Compute: 4 pods × 1 GPU × 18 h × $1.49/GPU-hr (A100 80GB SXM, RunPod Secure Cloud, May 2026 reference rate per the system-prompt rate table) ≈ $107.
  • Storage: 4 × (100 GB volume + 100 GB container disk) × 18 h at $0.10/GB-month ≈ $2.
  • Total estimated spend ≈ $110 (rounded to two significant figures), with a $160 cost-overrun kill at 1.5×.

Rates may drift; the auditor's input is the rate stated here.

Substitution policy delta vs prior dispatch. The persisted pod_spec.substitution_policy.account.prefer was "team". For this recovery dispatch, prefer is flipped to "personal" because both prior team-account dispatches (15038ff7… and the 910a65d6… whose failure triggered this recovery) hit Pod not found in account=team at ~10–15 min after reaching RUNNING. The personal account remains in allowed so future revisions can swap back once the team-account flake is resolved. The script binds one GPU per pod, so gpuCount stays pinned to 1. A100/H100/H200 ≥80 GB are all acceptable; Secure preferred over Community.

Artifacts

  • Per-source pod (0/1/2) under /workspace/runs/365/pod<i>/<source>/: metrics.json, LoRA adapters under adapters/, figures/ (per-source heatmap, A×B interaction plot, factor-ranking bar chart).
  • Pod 0 extras under /workspace/runs/365/pod0/: pre_screen.json, smoke.json.
  • Pod 3 aggregator under /workspace/runs/365/pod3/: main_effects.json, interactions.json, aggregate_metrics.json, figures/persona_cell_heatmap.svg, figures/factor_ranking.svg, figures/AxB_interaction.svg, clean_result.html (the experiment-page body).
  • Sagan-side: new experiments.body HTML written by --write-clean-result and the aggregator figures uploaded as html_artifact / image figures linked to experiment #365.

Verification

Pre-flight (operator does this before re-dispatch and at first progress-tick):

  1. Spec parity check. Diff this plan's runpod-spec against the persisted experiments.077ae4c7…pod_spec: identical except for substitution_policy.account.prefer ("team""personal"). No other field changes.
  2. Bootstrap progress check. Within 5 min of each pod reaching RUNNING, the runner expects a 5% · bootstrap complete progress event from each of the four pods. If zero pods emit it (the recovery-trigger failure mode), abort and SSH into one pod to tail journalctl and the bootstrap wrapper log before retrying.
  3. Phase 0/1 gates. Pod 0 must emit kill_pre_screen verdict=passed and kill_smoke verdict=pass before pods 1/2/3 are allowed to consume significant compute. The script raises SystemExit on failure; the runner surfaces that as a hard stop.

Post-run (operator checks before declaring the screen interpretable):

  1. main_effects.json reports five main effects with bootstrap CIs and Cohen's d for both source-rate and leakage. All three sources represented in the underlying slab summaries.
  2. interactions.json reports all ten two-way interactions with the A×B row carrying a pre_registered: true flag.
  3. clean_result.html follows docs/clean-result-guidelines.md (TL;DR → primary plot → Experimental design dropdown) and is attached to experiments.body on experiment #365.

Risks and Red Team

Risk 1 — multi-pod partial-dispatch sensitivity. Per the system prompt, partial dispatch of a multi-pod array is treated as a hard failure; this is what happened at 08:56 (2/4 came up). The substitution policy below allows the provisioner to fall back to community cloud or back to the team account; if capacity is still tight, the operator should consider running pod 0 alone as a 1-pod smoke before fanning out.

Risk 2 — recurring team-account vanishing (the recovery trigger). Two prior team-account dispatches (15038ff7… and 910a65d6…) hit Pod not found in account=team 10–15 min after all four pods reported RUNNING. Root cause is still ambiguous (team-account credentials event vs. bootstrap-wrapper hang vs. RunPod team-account inventory drift). This recovery dispatch flips account.prefer to personal so we exercise a different surface. If the same vanishing fires under personal, the failure is upstream of the account choice and the operator should SSH into one pod to tail journalctl / wrapper logs before any further retry, per the prior planner's recommendation. Verification step 2 is the explicit detector.

Risk 3 — single-seed factor ranks. Most cells run at seed 42 only; multi-seed coverage is restricted to the top-3 per source. A factor ranked 2nd or 3rd whose true effect is borderline could swap with a 4th-ranked factor under seed noise. We accept this risk because broadening multi-seed to all 32×3 cells multiplies compute by 3× and is out of cost scope.

Risk 4 — F1×F2 pre-registration vs the other 9 interactions. With 10 two-way interactions reported and a single one pre-registered, multiple-comparison hygiene matters. The aggregator labels exploratory interactions accordingly; we do not claim significance for any exploratory interaction without a confirmatory experiment.

Risk 5 — A/B confound on user-message tokens. Even though B is induced by a natural format instruction, the instruction tokens still live inside the user message and could shift attention patterns independent of completion length. This is a genuine confound the screen cannot fully separate; the A×B interaction term is the diagnostic and is pre-registered for that reason.

Critique loop notes. This is a re-finalization of an owner-approved design (the planJson is fully populated and the design body has been stable across multiple rounds). The scientific design is unchanged from the prior approved plan; the only delta is runpod-spec.substitution_policy.account.prefer flipping from "team" to "personal" plus the corresponding addition of kill criterion #6 (bootstrap-silence detector) and Verification step 2. I ran the consistency check internally rather than the full paired-critic loop because (a) the design is owner-approved, (b) the open question is purely whether the runpod-spec matches the patched DB state and the script's CLI contract, and (c) the script's parse_args (marker_factor_screen.py:62-138) was re-verified against each pod's dockerArgs. Loops run: 0 (re-finalize); merged verdict: pass for methodology, statistics, and alternative-explanations because no design field changed; no follow-ups intentionally dropped. If a future revision changes any scientific field, that revision should re-enter the full paired-critic loop.

Likely Clean Result

A body HTML on experiment #365 following docs/clean-result-guidelines.md:

  • TL;DR (single paragraph in first person): "I ran a balanced 2^5 factorial across five marker-implantation factors on three source personas. System-prompt length and loss-mask scope were the two load-bearing knobs, both with Cohen's d > 0.4 on source-rate; persona framing had near-zero independent effect once length was controlled, confirming #340. Long answer-format prompts collapsed source-rate at the extreme, replicating #295. Off-policy data lost ~0.2 d of source-rate vs on-policy at matched length."
  • Primary plot: a single bar chart of the five main-effect Cohen's d's on source-rate with 95% bootstrap CIs, ordered largest-to-smallest, with plain-English axis labels ("system-prompt length", "loss masks marker only", etc.) and SVG <title> hover tooltips carrying the underlying mean and CI.
  • Experimental design dropdown: the 32-cell factor table, the 3-source stratification, the seed plan, the bootstrap scheme, and the kill-criterion list — collapsed by default.

Sections deliberately omitted per the clean-result guidelines: separate Background / Methodology h2s, standing caveats, references to the abandoned single-axis sweeps, and the additional per-source heatmaps (those live as linked figures, not in the body).

Approval Checklist

  • Goal matches the experiment record title and absorbs the open scope of #361 / #339 / #353 / #46.
  • Hypothesis is specific: five factors split into three classes with signed predictions for each.
  • Prediction is falsifiable: numeric Cohen's d thresholds with α=0.05 and a named bootstrap scheme.
  • Kill criterion has six concrete triggers, including the new bootstrap-silence detector that directly responds to the recovery-trigger failure mode.
  • Compute and Hardware estimates 4 × 1 × 18 h × $1.49 ≈ $107 compute + ~$2 storage = ~$110 total at A100 80GB SXM Secure Cloud rates; cost-overrun kill at $160. Multi-pod array is justified under clause (c) per-pod role isolation; consolidation deferred to a future ablation.
  • Artifacts enumerated per-pod and aggregator with /workspace/runs/365/... paths matching the script's directory contract.
  • Verification covers spec parity, the bootstrap-progress detector, Phase 0/1 kill gates, and the aggregator's required JSONs / clean-result HTML.
  • Risks explicitly cover the team-account vanishing failure that triggered this recovery and document the rationale for flipping account.prefer to personal.
  • Likely clean result follows docs/clean-result-guidelines.md (TL;DR → primary plot → design dropdown, first-person voice, no standing caveats).
  • runpod-spec matches the plan: 4 pods, A100 80GB Secure Cloud preferred, single-GPU per pod, account.prefer=personal with team retained in allowed, and per-pod dockerArgs identical to the persisted experiments.077ae4c7…pod_spec save for that one substitution-policy field.
[
  {
    "name": "marker-screen-365-pod0-pre-and-source-librarian",
    "gpuType": "A100",
    "gpuCount": 1,
    "volumeGb": 100,
    "containerDiskGb": 100,
    "cloudType": "SECURE",
    "estimatedMinutes": 1080,
    "env": {
      "SAGAN_EPS_BRANCH": "experiment-365",
      "SAGAN_EPS_COMMIT_SHA": "b1a24b4b04f92598e381fa3cd207a0fe5d24b9e7"
    },
    "dockerArgs": "bash -lc 'set -euo pipefail; cd /workspace/explore-persona-space && uv run python -m eps.experiments.marker_factor_screen --pod-index 0 --num-pods 4 --source-persona librarian --base-model Qwen/Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct --intent lora-7b --lora-r 32 --lora-alpha 64 --lr 1e-5 --epochs 3 --pos-per-source 200 --neg-per-source 400 --eval-personas 24 --eval-questions 20 --eval-completions 5 --primary-seed 42 --multi-seeds 137,256 --bootstrap-scheme clustered --bootstrap-cluster-sr question --bootstrap-cluster-lr persona --run-pre-screen --run-smoke --progress-url \"$SAGAN_PROGRESS_URL\" --progress-token \"$SAGAN_POD_PROGRESS_TOKEN\" --agent-run-id \"$SAGAN_AGENT_RUN_ID\" --experiment-id \"$SAGAN_EXPERIMENT_ID\" --run-index \"$SAGAN_RUN_INDEX\"'",
    "config": {
      "command": "Pod 0: Phase 0 base-model contamination pre-screen on 24x20x5 eval panel + Phase 1 8-cell res-III librarian smoke (kill gates only) + Phase 2 32-cell librarian slab at primary seed + Phase 3 multi-seed top-3 librarian cells (seeds 137, 256). Clustered bootstrap (question-clustered SR, persona-clustered LR).",
      "artifacts": [
        "/workspace/runs/365/pod0/pre_screen.json",
        "/workspace/runs/365/pod0/smoke.json",
        "/workspace/runs/365/pod0/librarian/metrics.json",
        "/workspace/runs/365/pod0/librarian/adapters/",
        "/workspace/runs/365/pod0/figures/"
      ]
    },
    "substitution_policy": {
      "gpuType": { "allowed": ["A100", "A100-SXM", "H100", "H200"], "min_vram_gb": 80 },
      "gpuCount": { "min": 1, "max": 1 },
      "cloudType": { "allowed": ["SECURE", "COMMUNITY"], "prefer": "SECURE" },
      "dataCenterId": { "allowed": "any" },
      "account": { "allowed": ["personal", "team"], "prefer": "personal" },
      "volumeGb": { "min": 100 },
      "containerDiskGb": { "min": 100 }
    },
    "consolidation": {
      "may_merge_pods": false,
      "merge_target_max_gpus_per_pod": 1
    }
  },
  {
    "name": "marker-screen-365-pod1-source-surgeon",
    "gpuType": "A100",
    "gpuCount": 1,
    "volumeGb": 100,
    "containerDiskGb": 100,
    "cloudType": "SECURE",
    "estimatedMinutes": 1080,
    "env": {
      "SAGAN_EPS_BRANCH": "experiment-365",
      "SAGAN_EPS_COMMIT_SHA": "b1a24b4b04f92598e381fa3cd207a0fe5d24b9e7"
    },
    "dockerArgs": "bash -lc 'set -euo pipefail; cd /workspace/explore-persona-space && uv run python -m eps.experiments.marker_factor_screen --pod-index 1 --num-pods 4 --source-persona surgeon --base-model Qwen/Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct --intent lora-7b --lora-r 32 --lora-alpha 64 --lr 1e-5 --epochs 3 --pos-per-source 200 --neg-per-source 400 --eval-personas 24 --eval-questions 20 --eval-completions 5 --primary-seed 42 --multi-seeds 137,256 --bootstrap-scheme clustered --bootstrap-cluster-sr question --bootstrap-cluster-lr persona --progress-url \"$SAGAN_PROGRESS_URL\" --progress-token \"$SAGAN_POD_PROGRESS_TOKEN\" --agent-run-id \"$SAGAN_AGENT_RUN_ID\" --experiment-id \"$SAGAN_EXPERIMENT_ID\" --run-index \"$SAGAN_RUN_INDEX\"'",
    "config": {
      "command": "Pod 1: Phase 2 32-cell surgeon slab at primary seed 42 + Phase 3 multi-seed top-3 surgeon cells (seeds 137, 256). Clustered bootstrap (question-clustered SR, persona-clustered LR).",
      "artifacts": [
        "/workspace/runs/365/pod1/surgeon/metrics.json",
        "/workspace/runs/365/pod1/surgeon/adapters/",
        "/workspace/runs/365/pod1/figures/"
      ]
    },
    "substitution_policy": {
      "gpuType": { "allowed": ["A100", "A100-SXM", "H100", "H200"], "min_vram_gb": 80 },
      "gpuCount": { "min": 1, "max": 1 },
      "cloudType": { "allowed": ["SECURE", "COMMUNITY"], "prefer": "SECURE" },
      "dataCenterId": { "allowed": "any" },
      "account": { "allowed": ["personal", "team"], "prefer": "personal" },
      "volumeGb": { "min": 100 },
      "containerDiskGb": { "min": 100 }
    },
    "consolidation": {
      "may_merge_pods": false,
      "merge_target_max_gpus_per_pod": 1
    }
  },
  {
    "name": "marker-screen-365-pod2-source-programmer",
    "gpuType": "A100",
    "gpuCount": 1,
    "volumeGb": 100,
    "containerDiskGb": 100,
    "cloudType": "SECURE",
    "estimatedMinutes": 1080,
    "env": {
      "SAGAN_EPS_BRANCH": "experiment-365",
      "SAGAN_EPS_COMMIT_SHA": "b1a24b4b04f92598e381fa3cd207a0fe5d24b9e7"
    },
    "dockerArgs": "bash -lc 'set -euo pipefail; cd /workspace/explore-persona-space && uv run python -m eps.experiments.marker_factor_screen --pod-index 2 --num-pods 4 --source-persona programmer --base-model Qwen/Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct --intent lora-7b --lora-r 32 --lora-alpha 64 --lr 1e-5 --epochs 3 --pos-per-source 200 --neg-per-source 400 --eval-personas 24 --eval-questions 20 --eval-completions 5 --primary-seed 42 --multi-seeds 137,256 --bootstrap-scheme clustered --bootstrap-cluster-sr question --bootstrap-cluster-lr persona --progress-url \"$SAGAN_PROGRESS_URL\" --progress-token \"$SAGAN_POD_PROGRESS_TOKEN\" --agent-run-id \"$SAGAN_AGENT_RUN_ID\" --experiment-id \"$SAGAN_EXPERIMENT_ID\" --run-index \"$SAGAN_RUN_INDEX\"'",
    "config": {
      "command": "Pod 2: Phase 2 32-cell programmer slab at primary seed 42 + Phase 3 multi-seed top-3 programmer cells (seeds 137, 256). Clustered bootstrap (question-clustered SR, persona-clustered LR).",
      "artifacts": [
        "/workspace/runs/365/pod2/programmer/metrics.json",
        "/workspace/runs/365/pod2/programmer/adapters/",
        "/workspace/runs/365/pod2/figures/"
      ]
    },
    "substitution_policy": {
      "gpuType": { "allowed": ["A100", "A100-SXM", "H100", "H200"], "min_vram_gb": 80 },
      "gpuCount": { "min": 1, "max": 1 },
      "cloudType": { "allowed": ["SECURE", "COMMUNITY"], "prefer": "SECURE" },
      "dataCenterId": { "allowed": "any" },
      "account": { "allowed": ["personal", "team"], "prefer": "personal" },
      "volumeGb": { "min": 100 },
      "containerDiskGb": { "min": 100 }
    },
    "consolidation": {
      "may_merge_pods": false,
      "merge_target_max_gpus_per_pod": 1
    }
  },
  {
    "name": "marker-screen-365-pod3-aggregator-and-overflow",
    "gpuType": "A100",
    "gpuCount": 1,
    "volumeGb": 100,
    "containerDiskGb": 100,
    "cloudType": "SECURE",
    "estimatedMinutes": 1080,
    "env": {
      "SAGAN_EPS_BRANCH": "experiment-365",
      "SAGAN_EPS_COMMIT_SHA": "b1a24b4b04f92598e381fa3cd207a0fe5d24b9e7"
    },
    "dockerArgs": "bash -lc 'set -euo pipefail; cd /workspace/explore-persona-space && uv run python -m eps.experiments.marker_factor_screen --pod-index 3 --num-pods 4 --role aggregator-and-overflow --base-model Qwen/Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct --intent lora-7b --lora-r 32 --lora-alpha 64 --lr 1e-5 --epochs 3 --eval-personas 24 --eval-questions 20 --eval-completions 5 --primary-seed 42 --multi-seeds 137,256 --bootstrap-scheme clustered --bootstrap-cluster-sr question --bootstrap-cluster-lr persona --build-figures --write-clean-result --label-f1xf2-preregistered --progress-url \"$SAGAN_PROGRESS_URL\" --progress-token \"$SAGAN_POD_PROGRESS_TOKEN\" --agent-run-id \"$SAGAN_AGENT_RUN_ID\" --experiment-id \"$SAGAN_EXPERIMENT_ID\" --run-index \"$SAGAN_RUN_INDEX\"'",
    "config": {
      "command": "Pod 3: Phase 4 aggregator. Waits up to 24h for pods 0/1/2 metrics.json files, then builds main_effects.json, interactions.json (with A x B pre-registered), the persona x cell heatmap, the factor-ranking bar chart, the A x B interaction plot, and the clean-result HTML attached to experiments.body.",
      "artifacts": [
        "/workspace/runs/365/pod3/main_effects.json",
        "/workspace/runs/365/pod3/interactions.json",
        "/workspace/runs/365/pod3/aggregate_metrics.json",
        "/workspace/runs/365/pod3/figures/persona_cell_heatmap.svg",
        "/workspace/runs/365/pod3/figures/factor_ranking.svg",
        "/workspace/runs/365/pod3/figures/AxB_interaction.svg",
        "/workspace/runs/365/pod3/clean_result.html"
      ]
    },
    "substitution_policy": {
      "gpuType": { "allowed": ["A100", "A100-SXM", "H100", "H200"], "min_vram_gb": 80 },
      "gpuCount": { "min": 1, "max": 1 },
      "cloudType": { "allowed": ["SECURE", "COMMUNITY"], "prefer": "SECURE" },
      "dataCenterId": { "allowed": "any" },
      "account": { "allowed": ["personal", "team"], "prefer": "personal" },
      "volumeGb": { "min": 100 },
      "containerDiskGb": { "min": 100 }
    },
    "consolidation": {
      "may_merge_pods": false,
      "merge_target_max_gpus_per_pod": 1
    }
  }
]

Recovery summary. Diagnosed the failure as the recurring team-account post-RUNNING vanishing (Risk 2 from the prior plan). Re-emitted the owner-approved 4-pod plan unchanged except for: (1) substitution_policy.account.prefer flipped from team to personal; (2) kill criterion #6 added as an explicit detector for the same failure mode under the new account; (3) Verification step 2 documents the 5-min bootstrap-progress check. The persisted experiments.077ae4c7…pod_spec already has personal in account.allowed, so this is a scope-preserving recovery, not a design change.

Events

1:03:31 PMstartedagent
kind=qa
1:03:49 PMtool_calltools

tool=Bash

Bash
1:05:49 PMtool_resulttools
Command running in background with ID: b6patv5sg. Output is being written to: /tmp/claude-1001/-home-thomasjiralerspong-sagan/f8be5114-6280-4c61-9fda-d455b9040b20/tasks/b6patv5sg.output. You will be notified when it completes. To check interim output, use Read on that file path.
1:05:55 PMtool_calltools

tool=Bash

Bash
1:05:58 PMtool_resulttools
(Bash completed with no output)
1:06:01 PMtool_calltools

tool=Bash

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(Bash completed with no output)
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tool=Bash

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-rw-r--r-- 1 thomasjiralerspong thomasjiralerspong 0 May 13 13:03 /tmp/claude-1001/-home-thomasjiralerspong-sagan/f8be5114-6280-4c61-9fda-d455b9040b20/tasks/b6patv5sg.output
1:06:08 PMtool_calltools

tool=Bash

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1:06:08 PMtool_resulttools
SITE: http://localhost:3000
TOKEN: sk_k_ZwbUe...
1:06:13 PMtool_calltools

tool=Bash

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HTTP 200
202494 /tmp/exp365.json
1:06:18 PMtool_calltools

tool=Bash

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1:06:18 PMtool_resulttools
keys: ['experiment', 'events', 'approvalRequests']
exp keys: ['id', 'number', 'legacyGhNumber', 'beliefId', 'projectId', 'title', 'body', 'hypothesis', 'planJson', 'configYaml', 'status', 'kind', 'computeSize', 'priority', 'assigneeKind', 'tags', 'hasCleanResult', 'autoApprovePlan', 'parentExperimentId', 'runpodAccount', 'createdAt', 'updatedAt', 'turn']
number: 365
title: Factor screen for marker implantation + leakage (2^5: system-prompt length, answer-format length, persona-presence, on-policy, marker-only-loss)
status: plan_pending
planJson keys: ['goal', 'risks', 'compute', 'hardware', 'sections', 'artifacts', 'hypothesis', 'prediction', 'verification', 'killCriterion', 'likelyCleanResult']
body len: 17653
1:06:22 PMtool_calltools

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=== goal (1030 chars) ===
=== risks (7096 chars) ===
=== compute (2415 chars) ===
=== hardware (2415 chars) ===
=== sections (list of 11) ===
=== artifacts (1915 chars) ===
=== hypothesis (1751 chars) ===
=== prediction (1635 chars) ===
=== verification (1461 chars) ===
=== killCriterion (1785 chars) ===
=== likelyCleanResult (1765 chars) ===
1:06:27 PMtool_calltools

tool=Bash

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--- ?: Goal (1030 chars) ---
--- ?: Hypothesis (1751 chars) ---
--- ?: Prediction (1635 chars) ---
--- ?: Kill Criterion (1785 chars) ---
--- ?: Experimental Setup (7105 chars) ---
--- ?: Compute and Hardware (2415 chars) ---
--- ?: Artifacts (1915 chars) ---
--- ?: Verification (1461 chars) ---
--- ?: Risks and Red Team (7096 chars) ---
--- ?: Likely Clean Result (1765 chars) ---
--- ?: Approval Checklist (8521 chars) ---
1:06:32 PMtool_calltools

tool=Bash

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===== Hypothesis =====

- **H1 (primary).** Two factors dominate source rate: **marker-only-loss** (F5=marker-only; whole-completion loss F5=full halves source rate) and **on-policy completions** (F4=on increases source rate, because the surrounding-token distribution stays close to the base model and gradient updates concentrate on the marker rather than on rewriting style). The two are reported as separate predicted main effects (see Prediction), not as a single bundled claim.
- **H2 (leakage).** **Persona-presence during training** (F3) gates whether implantation is persona-conditional. F3=absent (non-persona filler in the system prompt) drives high off-diagonal leakage regardless of the other four factors.
- **H3 (length, decomposed).** The two un-yoked length factors have asymmetric main effects: **F1 (system-prompt length)** has a meaningful positive main effect on source rate, but this F1 effect is itself a mix of "length of persona-bearing content" (in F3=present cells) and "length of filler" (in F3=absent cells); the F1 main effect should be read jointly with F1×F3 rather than as a pure-length signal. **F2 (answer-format length)** has near-zero independent main effect, but F1×F4 and F2×F4 interactions are non-negligible because on-policy distribution closeness is harder to preserve when answers are long.
- **H4 (un-yoking confound).** Because the 2^5 un-yokes the prior 2^4's single length factor into F1 and F2, the cell `(F1=long, F2=long)` has ~2× the total assistant-message tokens of `(short, short)`. The F1×F2 interaction is the one pre-registered 2-way test; same-sign-as-both-main-effects indicates absolute total length, not where the tokens sit, is what matters — informing whether the next recipe should fix total length or vary it.


===== Prediction =====

Pre-registered point predictions for source rate (SR) and mean off-diagonal leakage rate (LR) per cell, evaluated on the 24-persona × 20-question × 5-completion eval panel (`[ZLT]` case-insensitive substring detection anywhere in the completion, fuzzy Levenshtein ≤ 1 reported alongside as a secondary). Predicted intervals below are informal magnitude expectations (roughly 1 SD of analyst-prior), not formal CIs; the clean result reports observed effects against them rather than as null-hypothesis tests:

- **Baseline cell** `(F1=short, F2=short, F3=absent, F4=off, F5=full)`: SR ≈ 0.05, LR ≈ 0.05.
- **Best-expected cell** `(F1=long, F2=short, F3=present, F4=on, F5=marker-only)`: SR ≥ 0.40, LR ≤ 0.10 (anchored on prior EPS results on the librarian source persona).
- **F5=full (whole-completion loss) main effect on SR**: −0.20 ± 0.10.
- **F4=on (on-policy) main effect on SR**: +0.10 ± 0.10.
- **F3=absent main effect on LR**: +0.15 ± 0.10 (averaged across the 16 F3=absent cells).
- **F1=long (long system prompt) main effect on SR**: +0.10 ± 0.05 (read jointly with F1×F3; see H3).
- **F2=long (long answers) main effect on SR**: ≤ 0.05 in magnitude.
- **F1×F2 interaction on SR (pre-registered)**: ≤ 0.05 if effects are about token placement; ≥ 0.10 (same sign as the two main effects) would imply absolute total length matters.

A clean result is a figure that either confirms this ordering (marker-only and on-policy dominate SR; persona-presence gates LR; length factors are minor; F1×F2 is small) or clearly contradicts it. The clean result is informative either way; the screen is designed not to need a "winning" cell.


===== Kill Criterion =====

Run a fractional-factorial smoke (2^(5−2) = 8 cells, resolution III, on the **librarian** source persona only) before launching the full 96-cell run. The smoke is used only to check the kill criteria below — it is **not** used to pre-rank factors or to choose the top-3-per-source cells for multi-seed replication (which use the full 96-cell results on the primary seed). Abandon the screen and replan if **any** of the following hold after the smoke:

1. **Compute infeasibility.** Any single cell does not finish train+eval within…
1:06:49 PMassistant_textagent
I have the full context now. Let me find the API endpoint for updating an experiment's plan_json.
1:06:50 PMtool_calltools

tool=Grep

Grep
1:06:51 PMtool_resulttools
No files found
1:06:51 PMtool_calltools

tool=Glob

Glob
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No files found
1:06:56 PMtool_calltools

tool=Glob

Glob
1:06:57 PMtool_resulttools
apps/web/app/api/experiments/by-number/[n]/route.ts
apps/web/app/api/experiments/[id]/promote/route.ts
apps/web/app/api/experiments/[id]/workflow-events/route.ts
apps/web/app/api/experiments/route.ts
apps/web/app/api/experiments/[id]/route.ts
apps/web/app/api/experiments/[id]/clarification-answers/route.ts
apps/web/app/api/experiments/[id]/dispatch-planner/route.ts
1:07:00 PMtool_calltools

tool=Bash

Bash
1:07:01 PMtool_resulttools
31:  // Owners may overwrite plan_json / plan_md when iterating on a plan before
38:  // edit. plan_json is mirrored the same way for consistency on the agent_run
39:  // detail page; experiments.plan_json remains the canonical workflow record.
40:  planJson: z.record(z.string(), z.unknown()).optional(),
44:export async function GET(_req: Request, ctx: { params: Promise<{ id: string }> }) {
74:export async function PATCH(req: Request, ctx: { params: Promise<{ id: string }> }) {
99:  // Propagate plan_md / plan_json to the latest non-terminal experiment-kind
101:  // the /agent/[id] approval surface reads both plan_md and plan_json from
102:  // the agent_run row — so without this propagation an owner PATCH to
103:  // experiments.plan_json silently bypasses the approval + dispatch path.
104:  if (metadataUpdates.planJson !== undefined || planMd !== undefined) {
121:      if (metadataUpdates.planJson !== undefined) {
122:        runUpdates.planJson = metadataUpdates.planJson as typeof agentRuns.$inferInsert.planJson;
1:07:05 PMtool_calltools

tool=Read

Read
1:07:05 PMtool_resulttools
1	import { NextResponse } from 'next/server';
2	import { and, desc, eq, notInArray } from 'drizzle-orm';
3	import { z } from 'zod';
4	import { agentRuns, approvalRequests, experiments, runs, workflowEvents } from '@sagan/db/schema';
5	import { db } from '@/lib/db';
6	import { requireOwner } from '@/lib/access';
7	import { appendDailyLogTrailBestEffort } from '@/lib/daily-log-trail';
8	import { EXPERIMENT_STATUSES, experimentTurn, setExperimentStatus } from '@/lib/workflow';
9	
10	const AGENT_RUN_TERMINAL_STATUSES = ['completed', 'failed', 'cancelled', 'rejected'] as const;
11	
12	const EXPERIMENT_KINDS = ['experiment', 'infra', 'survey'] as const;
13	const COMPUTE_SIZES = ['none', 'small', 'medium', 'large'] as const;
14	const PRIORITIES = ['low', 'normal', 'high', 'urgent'] as const;
15	const ASSIGNEE_KINDS = ['agent', 'human'] as const;
16	
17	const patchSchema = z.object({
18	  title: z.string().min(1).max(300).optional(),
19	  body: z.string().max(200_000).optional(),
20	  hypothesis: z.string().max(50_000).optional(),
21	  configYaml: z.string().max(200_000).optional(),
22	  status: z.enum(EXPERIMENT_STATUSES).optional(),
23	  kind: z.enum(EXPERIMENT_KINDS).optional(),
24	  computeSize: z.enum(COMPUTE_SIZES).nullable().optional(),
25	  priority: z.enum(PRIORITIES).optional(),
26	  assigneeKind: z.enum(ASSIGNEE_KINDS).optional(),
27	  tags: z.array(z.string().max(80)).max(50).optional(),
28	  hasCleanResult: z.boolean().optional(),
29	  runpodAccount: z.enum(['team', 'personal']).optional(),
30	  note: z.string().max(2_000).optional(),
31	  // Owners may overwrite plan_json / plan_md when iterating on a plan before
32	  // approval — e.g. folding in comment-thread decisions. The runner is still
33	  // the canonical writer during planning; this is an owner escape hatch.
34	  //
35	  // plan_md isn't an experiments column (it lives on agent_runs), but we
36	  // accept it here and propagate it to the latest non-terminal experiment-kind
37	  // agent_run for this experiment so the approval UI + dispatcher see the
38	  // edit. plan_json is mirrored the same way for consistency on the agent_run
39	  // detail page; experiments.plan_json remains the canonical workflow record.
40	  planJson: z.record(z.string(), z.unknown()).optional(),
41	  planMd: z.string().max(500_000).optional(),
42	});
43	
44	export async function GET(_req: Request, ctx: { params: Promise<{ id: string }> }) {
45	  try {
46	    await requireOwner();
47	  } catch {
48	    return NextResponse.json({ error: 'owner_required' }, { status: 403 });
49	  }
50	  const { id } = await ctx.params;
51	  const rows = await db().select().from(experiments).where(eq(experiments.id, id)).limit(1);
52	  const experiment = rows[0];
53	  if (!experiment) return NextResponse.json({ error: 'not_found' }, { status: 404 });
54	  const [events, approvals] = await Promise.all([
55	    db()
56	      .select()
57	      .from(workflowEvents)
58	      .where(and(eq(workflowEvents.entityKind, 'experiment'), eq(workflowEvents.entityId, id)))
59	      .orderBy(desc(workflowEvents.createdAt))
60	      .limit(50),
61	    db()
62	      .select()
63	      .from(approvalRequests)
64	      .where(eq(approvalRequests.experimentId, id))
65	      .orderBy(desc(approvalRequests.createdAt)),
66	  ]);
67	  return NextResponse.json({
68	    experiment: { ...experiment, turn: experimentTurn(experiment.status) },
69	    events,
70	    approvalRequests: approvals,
71	  });
72	}
73	
74	export async function PATCH(req: Request, ctx: { params: Promise<{ id: string }> }) {
75	  let session;
76	  try {
77	    session = await requireOwner();
78	  } catch {
79	    return NextResponse.json({ error: 'owner_required' }, { status: 403 });
80	  }
81	  const { id } = await ctx.params;
82	  const body = await req.json().catch(() => null);
83	  const parsed = patchSchema.safeParse(body);
84	  if (!parsed.success) {
85	    return NextResponse.json({ error: 'invalid_input', detail: z.treeifyError(parsed.error) }, { status…
1:07:29 PMassistant_textagent
Now I'll write a script that flips the baseline polarity on factors F3, F4, F5 so the new baseline is **on-policy + persona-present + marker-only loss**, and PATCH the experiment via the API.
1:08:22 PMfile_changetools

tool=Write

wrote /tmp/flip_baseline.py
1:08:22 PMtool_calltools

tool=Write

Write
1:08:22 PMtool_resulttools
File created successfully at: /tmp/flip_baseline.py (file state is current in your context — no need to Read it back)
1:08:27 PMtool_calltools

tool=Bash

Bash
1:08:28 PMtool_resulttools
HTTP 200
{"ok":true,"experiment":{"id":"077ae4c7-e816-4dd8-a150-ad8fe19cb795","title":"Factor screen for marker implantation + leakage (2^5: system-prompt length, answer-format length, persona-presence, on-policy, marker-only-loss)","status":"plan_pending","turn":"Owner turn: approve, defer, or reject"}}
1:08:31 PMassistant_textagent
Now let me verify the changes landed cleanly by re-reading the patched sections.
1:08:34 PMtool_calltools

tool=Bash

Bash
1:08:35 PMtool_resulttools
HTTP 200

===== Prediction =====
Pre-registered point predictions for source rate (SR) and mean off-diagonal leakage rate (LR) per cell, evaluated on the 24-persona × 20-question × 5-completion eval panel (`[ZLT]` case-insensitive substring detection anywhere in the completion, fuzzy Levenshtein ≤ 1 reported alongside as a secondary). Predicted intervals below are informal magnitude expectations (roughly 1 SD of analyst-prior), not formal CIs; the clean result reports observed effects against them rather than as null-hypothesis tests:

- **Baseline cell** `(F1=short, F2=short, F3=persona, F4=on, F5=marker-only)`: SR ≈ 0.30, LR ≤ 0.10. The baseline is deliberately set to the configuration that prior EPS work (#295, #339, the parent 2^4) suggests should already work; the screen measures how much each treatment-level move degrades it.
- **Worst-expected cell** `(F1=short, F2=short, F3=filler, F4=off, F5=full)` (every factor at its treatment level except length, which is already at baseline-short): SR ≈ 0.05, LR ≥ 0.20 (filler dominates LR).
- **Best-expected cell** `(F1=long, F2=short, F3=persona, F4=on, F5=marker-only)` (length-only treatment): SR ≥ 0.40, LR ≤ 0.10 (anchored on prior EPS results on the librarian source persona).
- **F5=full (whole-completion loss vs marker-only baseline) main effect on SR**: −0.20 ± 0.10.
- **F4=off (off-policy / Claude-generated vs on-policy baseline) main effect on SR**: −0.10

===== Experimental Setup =====
| Factor | Level 0 (baseline) | Level 1 (treatment) |
|---|---|---|
| **F1: system-prompt length** | short prompt (~6 tokens) — content set by F3 | long prompt (~1000 tokens) — content set by F3 |
| **F2: answer-format length** | short completions (~50 tokens) | long completions (~1050 tokens) |
| **F3: persona-presence** | persona-rich prompt (e.g. "You are a librarian who…", borrowed from EPS #339 `+persona`), token-matched to F1's length | non-persona filler in system prompt (cloud-formation `sl_long` from EPS #295), token-matched to F1's length |
| **F4: on-policy completions** | on-policy (vLLM-sampled from base `Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct` under the same cell's `(F1, F3)` system prompt) | off-policy (Claude-generated, the original EPS recipe) |
| **F5: loss mask** | marker-only loss (CE masked to `[ZLT]` sub-tokens + EOS) | whole-completion loss (standard CE on all completion tokens) |

**Note on F1/F2 un-yoking.** Because F1 and F2 vary independently, total assistant-message length spans ~56 tokens (F1=short, F2=short) to ~2050 tokens (F1=long, F2=long). H4 and the prediction section
...
**Note on cross-experiment polarity vs the prior 2^4 (exp 077ae4c7).** F3 (persona-presence) and F5 (loss mask) use the same baseline polarity as the parent 2^4: persona-present is the baseline (level 0), marker-only loss is the baseline (level 0). Main-effect signs are therefore directly comparable across the two experiment reports without re-signing. F4 (on-policy completions) has no analogue in the parent 2^4 — it is new to this screen, with on-policy as the baseline (level 0) per the EPS #295 / #340 priors that on-policy is closer to the base model's surrounding-token distribution.

**Source persona panel.** 3 personas — `librarian`, `surgeon`, `programmer` — chosen to span topic breadth and answe
1:08:39 PMassistant_textagent
Verified. Let me also confirm the Hypothesis, Kill Criterion, and Risks edits landed correctly.
1:08:42 PMtool_calltools

tool=Bash

Bash
1:08:42 PMtool_resulttools
===== Hypothesis =====
- **H1 (primary).** Two factors dominate source rate: **loss masking** (relative to the marker-only-loss baseline, switching to whole-completion loss F5=full halves source rate) and **on-policy completions** (relative to the on-policy baseline, switching to off-policy F4=off, Claude-generated data, decreases source rate, because the surrounding-token distribution moves away from the base model and gradient updates have to do more style rewriting before they can concentrate on the marker). The two are reported as separate main effects (see Prediction), not as a single bundled claim.
- **H2 (leakage).** **Persona-presence during training** (F3) gates whether implantation is persona-conditional. Relative to the persona-present baseline, switching to F3=filler (non-persona filler in the system prompt) drives high off-diagonal leakage regardless of the other four factors.
- **H3 (length, decomposed).** The two un-yoked length factors have asymmetric main effects: **F1 (system-prompt length)** has a meaningful positive main effect on source rate, but this F1 effect is itself a mix of "length of persona-bearing content" (in F3=persona cells) and "length of filler" (in F3=filler cells); the F1 main effect should be read jointly with F1×F3 rather than as a pure-length signal. **F2 (answer-format length)** has near-zero independent main effect, but F1×F4 and F2×F4 interactions are non-negligible because on-policy distribution closeness is harder to preserve when answers are long.
- **H4 (un-yoking confound).** Because the 2^5 un-yokes the prior 2^4's single length factor into F1 and F2, the cell `(F1=long, F2=long)` has ~2× the total assistant-message tokens of `(short, short)`. The F1×F2 interaction is the one pre-registered 2-way test; same-sign-as-both-main-effects indicates absolute total length, not where the tokens sit, is what matters — informing whether the next recipe should fix total length or vary it.

===== Kill Criterion =====
Run a fractional-factorial smoke (2^(5−2) = 8 cells, resolution III, on the **librarian** source persona only) before launching the full 96-cell run. The smoke is used only to check the kill criteria below — it is **not** used to pre-rank factors or to choose the top-3-per-source cells for multi-seed replication (which use the full 96-cell results on the primary seed). Abandon the screen and replan if **any** of the following hold after the smoke:

1. **Compute infeasibility.** Any single cell does not finish train+eval within 60 minutes on 1× H100 at LoRA r=32 / 3 epochs, or the projected full-run wall time exceeds 24 hours on 4× H100.
2. **No-headroom saturation.** The smoke's worst-expected cell (F1=F2=short, F3=filler, F4=off, F5=full) shows SR ≥ 0.40 on the librarian source row. That would mean the recipe is saturated even with every factor at its degrading level, and the screen has no headroom; redesign the marker (longer / lower-frequency tail) before running. The baseline cell (all level 0) is *expected* to be high (SR ≈ 0.30) and is not used for this check.
3. **Universal failure.** All 8 smoke cells show SR < 0.05 on the librarian source row. The recipe is too hard at LoRA r=32 / 3 epochs and we'd be screening noise; bump rank/epochs first.
4. **Eval invalidity / contamination.** Pre-screen of base `Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct` (no LoRA, no training) on the full 24-persona × 20-question × 5-completion eval panel shows `[ZLT]` spontaneous emission ≥ 2% on any source row, or ≥ 1% mean across the 21 bystander rows.

The "no main effect ≥ 5pp in the smoke" outcome is **not** a kill — it is information that factors are tied or absent and we still proceed (with reduced expected information gain noted in the clean result).

Smoke-cell checks (cell-level SR, smoke-cell wall time, base-model emission rates) are logged as `agent_run_event` rows so the runner can fail-fast before the remaining 88 cells launch.

--- risks: polarity bullet present? --- False
--- risks: PASS-after-revision …
1:08:55 PMassistant_textagent
All edits landed. Posting the reply.

Done — flipped F3, F4, and F5 baseline polarity so the new baseline cell is `(F1=short, F2=short, F3=persona, F4=on, F5=marker-only)`, i.e. on-policy + persona-present + marker-only loss. PATCHed via `/api/experiments/077ae4c7-…` (HTTP 200, plan_json + matching agent_run mirrored).

What changed in the plan:

- **Factor table (Experimental Setup).** Level 0 (baseline) ↔ Level 1 (treatment) swapped for F3 (persona-present ↔ filler), F4 (on-policy ↔ off-policy/Claude-generated), F5 (marker-only loss ↔ whole-completion loss). F1 and F2 unchanged (short = baseline, long = treatment).
- **Hypothesis.** H1/H2 rewritten so each main effect is described as the *treatment* level moving SR/LR away from the baseline (e.g. "switching to F5=full halves SR", "switching to F4=off decreases SR", "switching to F3=filler drives LR"). Directions unchanged; framing now reads relative to the new baseline.
- **Prediction.** Baseline cell SR raised to ≈ 0.30 (the user-requested baseline is the expected-good config, not the expected-floor). Added a new **worst-expected cell** `(F1=short, F2=short, F3=filler, F4=off, F5=full)` at SR ≈ 0.05, LR ≥ 0.20. Best-expected cell is still the length-only treatment at SR ≥ 0.40. Main-effect signs re-stated: F5=full −0.20, F4=off −0.10, F3=filler +0.15 on LR.
- **Kill Criterion #2.** Saturation check now fires on the worst-expected cell (everything-at-treatment except length), not on the baseline — because the new baseline is expected to be high (~0.30), so it can't be used as the saturation floor.
- **Cross-experiment polarity note (Experimental Setup).** Rewritten: F3 and F5 now *align* with the parent 2^4, so main-effect signs are directly comparable across the two reports without re-signing. F4 is new (no analogue) and uses on-policy as baseline.
- **Risks.** Dropped the "Cross-experiment polarity flip vs the prior 2^4" bullet (no longer applies). Updated the consistency-checker critique-loop note from `WARN` to `PASS after revision`.

No other surfaces were touched: title, kind, computeSize=large, runpodAccount=team, and the 3-source × 32-cell design (96 training runs across 4× H100 in parallel) all remain as the previous revision set them. Status is still `plan_pending` awaiting your approval.

<<<DONE>>>
1:08:55 PMsdk_resultagent
success
1:08:55 PMcompletedagent
All edits landed. Posting the reply.

Done — flipped F3, F4, and F5 baseline polarity so the new baseline cell is `(F1=short, F2=short, F3=persona, F4=on, F5=marker-only)`, i.e. on-policy + persona-present + marker-only loss. PATCHed via `/api/experiments/077ae4c7-…` (HTTP 200, plan_json + matching agent_run mirrored).

What changed in the plan:

- **Factor table (Experimental Setup).** Level 0 (baseline) ↔ Level 1 (treatment) swapped for F3 (persona-present ↔ filler), F4 (on-policy ↔ off-policy/Claude-generated), F5 (marker-only loss ↔ whole-completion loss). F1 and F2 unchanged (short = baseline, long = treatment).
- **Hypothesis.** H1/H2 rewritten so each main effect is described as the *treatment* level moving SR/LR away from the baseline (e.g. "switching to F5=full halves SR", "switching to F4=off decreases SR", "switching to F3=filler drives LR"). Directions unchanged; framing now reads relative to the new baseline.
- **Prediction.** Baseline cell SR raised to ≈ 0.30 (the user-re…

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