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CAST: Causal Anchored Simplex Transport for Distribution-Valued Time Series

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arXiv:2605. 16919v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Many decision-facing stochastic systems are observed through aggregate distributions rather than scalar trajectories: queue occupancies, mobility shares, public-health mixtures, generation-source shares, ecological compositions, and air-quality severity profiles all live on the probability simplex and evolve over time.

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Authors: Jiecheng Lu, Jieqi Di, Runhua Wu, Yuwei Zhou
Released: 2026-05-19 (2mo ago)
Topic: Related to current project
Relation to my work: Read next because CAST: Causal Anchored Simplex Transport for Distribution-Valued Time Series overlaps with clean result "LoRA persona trained on <A> alone emits <B> at 23.5% when a co-trained partner learns <A>...<B>, vs 0% control on Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct (MODERATE confidence)", clean result "Leakage rate is a usable signal for recovering trigger-shaped phrases on Gaperon-1125-1B without knowing the hidden trigger itself (MODERATE confidence)", clean result "Language-mismatch LoRA SFT on Qwen2.5-7B leaks the trained completion language into bystander directives the model was never trained on, absent under same-language SFT (LOW confidence)". Matching terms: text, class, under, source, line, rate, control, stage. Source: arxiv stat.ML (Machine Learning).
arXiv: 2605.16919

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