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Sagan

Experiment#192

Can capability be taught through another persona?

Awaiting clarificationsawaiting_clarifications

Clarifications

Clarifying questions

Sagan paused to ask the questions below. Answer each one in its textbox, then submit — Sagan will read your answers and either ask follow-ups or move on to drafting a plan.

  1. 1.

    Question

    1. Your answer.\n\nWrite a free-form response for Sagan below.

Plan

Open run →

The evidence makes the blocker even more clear. The r5 wave at 10:53–10:55 UTC lost pods across multiple experiments simultaneously, and exp #333's r5 attempt on account=personal (the fallback after team failures) also lost its pods. This is no longer a team-account-specific event — both team and personal accounts are affected within the same window.

Goal

Diagnose why direct-dispatch r5 for experiment #192 failed in the same fleet-wide pattern as r4, and produce a blocker that prevents further compute burn until the underlying RunPod-side or account-level event is identified by the human owner.

Hypothesis

Pods are being terminated by an out-of-band actor (RunPod-side reclaim, billing/auth event affecting the API key, or manual sweep) within ~60–90 seconds of reporting RUNNING, across multiple experiments and across both team and personal accounts. The r5 attempt for #192 is one of at least four simultaneously affected dispatches in the 10:53–10:55 UTC window.

Prediction

If I re-dispatch the same A100 r5 spec right now, the new pod will:

  1. Report RUNNING within ~40s of dispatch,
  2. Disappear from whichever account it was billed to within ~60s after that,
  3. Trigger an r6 auto-recovery with an identical "Pod … not found in account=…" failure reason,
  4. Burn another ~$1.50–3 of A100 time for ~90s of effectively-no-work compute.

There is no per-experiment code change that would prevent this. The r4 plan_json correctly noted the EPS script fix (22739aab) and bootstrap hardening (pod-bootstrap.ts:230-264) were already in place; r5 confirms those did not cause and cannot fix the failure.

Kill Criterion

This recovery run is itself the kill criterion: I am stopping with a blocker rather than emitting a runpod-spec. The criterion that would unblock re-dispatch is one of:

  • The owner identifies a specific RunPod-side cause (billing cap, API key rotation, manual sweep, regional capacity reclaim) and confirms it has cleared, OR
  • The owner observes ≥1 unrelated control dispatch (e.g. exp #363, #366, #333 r6) running successfully past the ~2-minute mark in the same window.

Experimental Setup

No new compute. Evidence-collection only, captured here:

r4 wave (10:39–10:45 UTC, team account): 4 sibling A100 dispatches; 3 vanished from account=team within ~3 minutes (per prior plan_json analysis on this experiment).

r5 wave (10:53–10:55 UTC, both accounts): at least four experiments lost pods simultaneously:

runexppodaccountRUNNING atlost atgap
3d8f3042… (this)#192v0c7bx292xqvg4team10:53:5410:54:55~61s
6e8a0593…#363m1ayhl6nsbxw04team10:53:5410:54:54~60s
9e039246…#366lqpfpmbytlgdedteam10:44:5310:54:54(long-running, killed in same window)
32e93989…#333j0xvy1q82ryo8m, cv13x9s487tvwnpersonal10:53:5510:54:54~60s

The exp #333 row is decisive: that recovery had deliberately switched from team to personal because r1–r4 had already failed on team, and personal also lost both of its pods in the same ~60s window. This rules out the team-only hypothesis from the r4 diagnosis.

Compute and Hardware

No compute dispatched. The Approval Checklist below explicitly does not approve a runpod-spec. If re-approved later, the canonical shape from the existing experiment record (1× A100 80GB SXM, single pod, ~3h estimated, ~$4.50 at the $1.49/GPU-hr SXM rate plus negligible storage) remains valid — no plan edit is required, only resolution of the account-level event.

Artifacts

This blocker plan is the only artifact. No models, datasets, evals, or figures will be produced by this run.

Verification

The owner can verify the diagnosis without my access by:

  1. Opening the RunPod console for both the team and personal accounts and inspecting the audit/event log for 2026-05-14 10:53–10:55 UTC. Look for podTerminate, billing alerts, API-key revocations, or capacity-reclaim notices.
  2. Cross-referencing the four pod IDs above (v0c7bx292xqvg4, m1ayhl6nsbxw04, lqpfpmbytlgded, j0xvy1q82ryo8m, cv13x9s487tvwn) — if a single RunPod-side action terminated them, the audit log will likely group them.
  3. Checking whether the same window shows successful (non-reaped) dispatches from other Sagan experiments; e.g. exp #365 pod j18eiux6ccekyj was reported as status=running in the r4 diagnosis — if it is now also gone, the event is platform-wide rather than account-wide.

Risks and Red Team

  • Risk of unnecessary blocker. If the platform event has already cleared, I am wasting time by not re-dispatching. Mitigation: this run does not edit the plan_md or pod_spec on experiments.b50b82c2…, so re-approval is one click for the owner once they confirm the account is healthy.
  • Risk of misdiagnosis. I have not directly queried the RunPod API for these pods' termination reasons (no MCP tool calls to RunPod in this thread, and the prior plan_json correctly noted that out-of-band action is the most likely explanation). Mitigation: the cross-account, multi-experiment, sub-90-second pattern is too tight to be explained by anything in our codepath; the wrapper's sleep infinity (pod-bootstrap.ts:230-264) makes a script-side exit impossible to manifest as "not found in account".
  • Risk of compounding loss. If I had re-dispatched, the next failure would have produced an r6 recovery that would itself recurse — the four parallel recovery runs already running at 10:57 UTC show the loop is in flight; emitting another spec accelerates it.

Critique loop notes. This is a recovery-context blocker, not a fresh adversarial plan, so the bounded 3-loop paired-critic workflow is not applicable. The prior plan_json (r4 analysis) already passed adversarial review and explicitly recommended not re-dispatching; r5's failure is the strongest possible confirmation of that recommendation. No critique loops run; no Codex fallback; no folded follow-ups.

Likely Clean Result

No clean result will be produced by this run. When the underlying event is resolved and the experiment eventually completes, the clean result for #192 (a separate future write-up) will answer "Can capability be taught through another persona?" using the persona-spread pipeline at branch exp-192-persona-spread@22739aab. That is unchanged by this recovery.

Approval Checklist

  • Goal — diagnose r5 failure, produce blocker, do not dispatch. Matches recovery prompt's "stop with a concise blocker" branch.
  • Hypothesis — cross-account out-of-band pod termination, not script bug.
  • Prediction — re-dispatch would fail the same way within ~90s.
  • Kill criterion — blocker; unblocking requires owner-side RunPod console inspection.
  • Compute/hardware/USD — no compute approved; no USD spend by this run.
  • Artifacts — this plan only.
  • Verification — RunPod console audit logs (team + personal) for 2026-05-14 10:53–10:55 UTC.
  • Risks — covered above; cross-account evidence rules out the team-only hypothesis from r4.
  • Likely clean-result shape — unchanged from prior approved plan; not produced by this run.
  • Runpod-spec matches plan — no runpod-spec emitted, by design. Per the system prompt: "If the experiment truly should not launch compute, do not use kind=experiment; write a blocker…". The original kind=experiment dispatch is preserved by simply not emitting a fenced runpod-spec block, which the runner treats as a blocker.

Exact next manual action (owner):

  1. Open the RunPod console for the team account → Events/Audit log for 2026-05-14 10:53–10:55 UTC. Look for grouped podTerminate events covering v0c7bx292xqvg4, m1ayhl6nsbxw04, lqpfpmbytlgded.
  2. Open the RunPod console for the personal account → same window. Look for the termination of j0xvy1q82ryo8m and cv13x9s487tvwn. If both accounts show the same termination cause, the issue is RunPod-side (open a support ticket with these five pod IDs). If they show different causes, treat the team and personal events separately.
  3. Check billing/usage caps on both accounts for the day — a hard cap hit at the team level could explain the team failures, but does not explain the personal-account failure unless that account is also near a cap.
  4. Once the cause is identified and confirmed cleared, re-approve experiments.b50b82c2-eefe-4d8a-924f-9ac776084b97 as-is. No plan_md, pod_spec, or branch change is needed.

[TEXTBOX:runpod-team-audit-summary]

[TEXTBOX:runpod-personal-audit-summary]

[TEXTBOX:owner-decision-redispatch-or-hold]

Issue history

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progress2026-05-14 08:181 item
  1. epm:progress

    100% · experiment completed

    Metadata
    {
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progress2026-05-14 08:181 item
  1. epm:progress

    5% · bootstrap complete on branch exp-192-persona-spread

    Metadata
    {
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progress2026-05-14 08:181 item
  1. epm:progress

    0% · 300m remaining · running

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progress2026-05-14 08:181 item
  1. epm:progress

    2% · running

    Metadata
    {
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progress2026-05-14 08:181 item
  1. epm:progress

    4% · running

    Metadata
    {
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progress2026-05-14 08:181 item
  1. epm:progress

    100% · experiment completed

    Metadata
    {
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progress2026-05-14 08:181 item
  1. epm:progress

    5% · bootstrap complete on branch exp-192-persona-spread

    Metadata
    {
  "podId": "be565kq7x4sybb",
  "status": null,
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progress2026-05-14 08:181 item
  1. epm:progress

    0% · 300m remaining · running

    Metadata
    {
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  "marker_type": "epm:progress",
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progress2026-05-14 08:191 item
  1. epm:progress

    2% · running

    Metadata
    {
  "podId": "be565kq7x4sybb",
  "status": "running",
  "errorTail": null,
  "marker_type": "epm:progress",
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}
progress2026-05-14 08:191 item
  1. epm:progress

    4% · running

    Metadata
    {
  "podId": "be565kq7x4sybb",
  "status": "running",
  "errorTail": null,
  "marker_type": "epm:progress",
  "progressPct": 4,
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}
progress2026-05-14 08:191 item
  1. epm:progress

    100% · experiment completed

    Metadata
    {
  "podId": "be565kq7x4sybb",
  "status": null,
  "errorTail": null,
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progress2026-05-14 08:191 item
  1. epm:progress

    5% · bootstrap complete on branch exp-192-persona-spread

    Metadata
    {
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progress2026-05-14 08:191 item
  1. epm:progress

    0% · 300m remaining · running

    Metadata
    {
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}
progress2026-05-14 08:191 item
  1. epm:progress

    2% · running

    Metadata
    {
  "podId": "be565kq7x4sybb",
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  "marker_type": "epm:progress",
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}
progress2026-05-14 08:191 item
  1. epm:progress

    4% · running

    Metadata
    {
  "podId": "be565kq7x4sybb",
  "status": "running",
  "errorTail": null,
  "marker_type": "epm:progress",
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}
progress2026-05-14 08:191 item
  1. epm:progress

    100% · experiment completed

    Metadata
    {
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progress2026-05-14 08:191 item
  1. epm:progress

    5% · bootstrap complete on branch exp-192-persona-spread

    Metadata
    {
  "podId": "be565kq7x4sybb",
  "status": null,
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}
progress2026-05-14 08:191 item
  1. epm:progress

    0% · 300m remaining · running

    Metadata
    {
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}
progress2026-05-14 08:191 item
  1. epm:progress

    2% · running

    Metadata
    {
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  "marker_type": "epm:progress",
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progress2026-05-14 08:191 item
  1. epm:progress

    4% · running

    Metadata
    {
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  "marker_type": "epm:progress",
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}
progress2026-05-14 08:191 item
  1. epm:progress

    100% · experiment completed

    Metadata
    {
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progress2026-05-14 08:191 item
  1. epm:progress

    5% · bootstrap complete on branch exp-192-persona-spread

    Metadata
    {
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  "marker_type": "epm:progress",
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progress2026-05-14 08:191 item
  1. epm:progress

    0% · 300m remaining · running

    Metadata
    {
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}
progress2026-05-14 08:191 item
  1. epm:progress

    2% · running

    Metadata
    {
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  "marker_type": "epm:progress",
  "progressPct": 2,
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}
progress2026-05-14 08:191 item
  1. epm:progress

    4% · running

    Metadata
    {
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progress2026-05-14 08:191 item
  1. epm:progress

    100% · experiment completed

    Metadata
    {
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progress2026-05-14 08:201 item
  1. epm:progress

    5% · bootstrap complete on branch exp-192-persona-spread

    Metadata
    {
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  "status": null,
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progress2026-05-14 08:201 item
  1. epm:progress

    0% · 300m remaining · running

    Metadata
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progress2026-05-14 08:201 item
  1. epm:progress

    2% · running

    Metadata
    {
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progress2026-05-14 08:201 item
  1. epm:progress

    4% · running

    Metadata
    {
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progress2026-05-14 08:201 item
  1. epm:progress

    100% · experiment completed

    Metadata
    {
  "podId": "be565kq7x4sybb",
  "status": null,
  "errorTail": null,
  "marker_type": "epm:progress",
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}
Awaiting Clarifications2026-05-14 08:271 item
  1. state changedrunning -> awaiting_clarifications

    Claude produced clarifying questions; awaiting owner answers.

    Metadata
    {
  "planLen": 4935,
  "sections": 1,
  "agentRunId": "1acb9b7c-48ae-49e7-b5ad-804f88cfbbe0"
}
Interpreting2026-05-14 08:291 item
  1. state changedawaiting_clarifications -> interpreting

    Moved on Pipeline board to interpreting.

Running2026-05-14 08:341 item
  1. state changedinterpreting -> running

    Moved on Pipeline board to running.

Implementing2026-05-14 08:341 item
  1. state changedrunning -> implementing

    Orchestrator 2c6057c3 queued to implement and dispatch.

Approved2026-05-14 08:341 item
  1. state changedimplementing -> approved

    Re-used existing plan after moving to running.

failure2026-05-14 08:381 item
  1. epm:failureapproved -> blocked

    Recovery agent (parent agent_run 7e3e2cc4) handed this orchestrator a blocker report instead of an executable plan. The report explicitly says "No runpod-spec emitted — this recovery must not auto-dispatch new compute until step 1 lands." Honoring that contract: posting epm:failure and transitioning to blocked rather than spawning experiment-implementer or pod-provisioner against a script that the recovery flagged as silently exit-0 inside the cipher-pair generation phase. Manual owner action is required to (a) reproduce + patch the silent-exit-0 in scripts/run_experiment_192.py on branch exp-192-persona-spread via SSH or local EPS venv, and (b) re-approve the existing plan. NOTE: the wrapper-side observability gap the recovery cited (pod-bootstrap.ts hiding failures because cmd | tee log masks the python exit code) was already fixed on Sagan main in commit 86fbb52 — SHELLOPTS=pipefail is now forced and the wrapper sleeps instead of exiting, so RunPod cannot restart-loop. The next dispatch after the script patch will therefore surface a real exit code + stderr tail instead of the fake 100% the prior pod produced. Static read of scripts/run_experiment_192.py shows _build_cipher_pairs raises RuntimeError on insufficient novelty (lines 824-828) and has no literal sys.exit(0); the original "100% experiment completed" almost certainly came from tee swallowing a non-zero python exit, which is now blocked by the pipefail fix. Owner can therefore likely re-approve the existing plan as-is once any genuine script-side failure (if one exists at all) is reproduced + patched.

    Metadata
    {
  "reason": "recovery-handed-blocker-not-plan",
  "scriptFile": "scripts/run_experiment_192.py",
  "marker_type": "epm:failure",
  "scriptBranch": "exp-192-persona-spread",
  "manualActions": [
    "reproduce silent exit-0 in _build_cipher_pairs via SSH/local",
    "re-approve existing plan after patch"
  ],
  "parentAgentRunId": "7e3e2cc4-9dea-4d0c-a75e-f00295c404a7",
  "wrapperFixCommit": "86fbb52",
  "next_workflow_status": "blocked"
}
Blocked2026-05-14 08:391 item
  1. blockedapproved -> blocked

    Blocked by recovery agent — see epm:failure marker f868eb1b. Original pod be565kq7x4sybb lost in restart loop; recovery handed-blocker says no redispatch until script-side silent exit-0 in scripts/run_experiment_192.py is reproduced + patched via SSH or local EPS venv. Wrapper-side fix (pipefail) is already in 86fbb52, so the next post-patch dispatch will surface real exit code + stderr tail.

Queued2026-05-14 08:531 item
  1. state changedapproved -> queued

    RunPod pod dispatched; waiting for runtime.

Running2026-05-14 08:541 item
  1. state changedqueued -> running

    RunPod pod is running.

Blocked2026-05-14 09:231 item
  1. blockedrunning -> blocked

    Cascaded from agent_run 37df0ad6 failed

    Metadata
    {
  "reason": "failed",
  "agentRunId": "37df0ad6-59b4-4381-aabe-fb24d840dd8e"
}
Queued2026-05-14 09:311 item
  1. state changedapproved -> queued

    RunPod pod dispatched; waiting for runtime.

Running2026-05-14 09:321 item
  1. state changedqueued -> running

    RunPod pod is running.

Queued2026-05-14 10:401 item
  1. state changedapproved -> queued

    RunPod pod dispatched; waiting for runtime.

Running2026-05-14 10:401 item
  1. state changedqueued -> running

    RunPod pod is running.

Awaiting Clarifications2026-05-14 10:481 item
  1. state changedrunning -> awaiting_clarifications

    Claude produced clarifying questions; awaiting owner answers.

    Metadata
    {
  "planLen": 4616,
  "sections": 4,
  "agentRunId": "6c477324-210d-4973-ae02-054ef6ad54c9"
}
Queued2026-05-14 10:531 item
  1. state changedapproved -> queued

    RunPod pod dispatched; waiting for runtime.

Running2026-05-14 10:531 item
  1. state changedqueued -> running

    RunPod pod is running.

Planning2026-05-14 10:571 item
  1. state changedblocked -> planning

    Automatic recovery queued after agent run 3d8f3042 failed.

    Metadata
    {
  "mode": "recovery",
  "sourceAgentRunId": "3d8f3042-6224-41c8-873e-fc9932d4e0bf",
  "followupAgentRunId": "b0218512-c544-48c7-bae6-d862b32ecbea"
}
Awaiting Clarifications2026-05-14 10:581 item
  1. state changedplanning -> awaiting_clarifications

    Claude produced clarifying questions; awaiting owner answers.

    Metadata
    {
  "planLen": 8719,
  "sections": 11,
  "agentRunId": "b0218512-c544-48c7-bae6-d862b32ecbea"
}

Probably start with memorizing a fact e.g. if I teach one fact to a persona does it spread to assistant? If I teach a capability does it spread? This is important to know for contextualization to see if you teach something to a model in one context does it spread Probably not because it would be weird if this spread the way we want it but not the negative things

Need to do a literature review also first